Written by / Long Shihui
Edited / Kilig
Design / Zoi.
Nian Feng La snow through the three white, the ground instigated the spring suburb has been all over the green.
Using "power and sprint" to look forward to the domestic auto market in 2022 should be the best. On the one hand, in 2022, it will undertake the situation of last year's stop loss and recovery, continue to get out of the epidemic and lack of core crisis in 2020, and restore a stable and long-term trend. CaUCA forecasts that passenger cars will increase by 6.5% year-on-year to 21.482 million units in 2022.
On the other hand, 2022 is only 3 years away from the full electrification of the domestic market in 2025, the traditional order of fuel vehicles has been broken, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles is at the highest level of about 13%, and new energy is just being accepted by the public, but it is still not solidified. The Year of the Tiger should be a good year for car companies to seize the track and sprint with all their might.
Therefore, from the perspective of the announced car company target, the double digits of the year-on-year growth in 2022 should be "standard", although there are not many car companies that completed the target last year, FLAG is still a big banner, guiding the situation of a year's struggle. And in it, who is "drawing the pie"? Who seems conservative? Who is the best at home? Let's make a comparison.
List of sales targets for 2022
Those who seek the overall situation, are not afraid of being high and far-reaching?
Obviously, in the horizontal comparison of car companies' goals, BYD and Chery's goals are particularly eye-catching.
In particular, BYD's annual target exceeded 1 million vehicles, an increase of 60.8%, if successfully completed, then BYD will rank among the second largest independent car companies after Geely, in front of Changan and the Great Wall (with sales in 2021 as a reference), the target can be described as quite aggressive.
Of course, this goal is based on bydy last year's bydir in the new energy track almost "soaring" growth, according to official data, IND's cumulative sales in 2021 is 730,000 vehicles, an increase of 75.4% year-on-year, and has a proportion structure that other car companies envy - new energy model sales account for up to 81.58%, and in the supply chain, BYD holds two major new energy vehicle "lifelines" such as chip semiconductors and power batteries. Obviously, BYD's transformation from a traditional car company to a travel service provider has gone further, which also makes BYD the most popular among investors and one of the performing car companies in 2021.
What we can expect is that due to the impact of the national slope, BYD will usher in a small climax in the sales of new energy vehicles this year, and the hot DM-i will continue to be sought after by the market. However, at present, BYD is facing many difficulties, a few years ago, the Xi'an factory was affected by the epidemic, the hot Song PLUS DM-i order has been scheduled for 4 months, and the blade battery has also been in short supply for many times. On the first day of the New Year of the Tiger, BYD's Dynasty Network and Ocean Network new energy models official guidance price rose, the highest increase reached 7,000 yuan, as strong as BYD was also affected by the epidemic and the rise in the supply side, coupled with this year's independent brand collective plug-in mixed models, last year became the family sales backbone of the DM-i matrix, whether it can withstand the competition and continue to sell, become the key to achieving the goal, in addition, whether BYD's high-end brand meets with the market this year, it is also worth paying attention to.
Chery Holding Group put forward the goal of "guaranteeing 150 to compete for 2 million vehicles", an increase of more than 35%, and its strength should be given by the domestic (31.7%) and overseas (138%) markets last year. But if you dismantle last year's sales composition ratio, Chery on the basis of substantial growth to meet the growth, is also full of variables, of which the word internal friction has become a key point of controversy, last year's main Chery brand accounted for less than 70%, high-end brand Xingtu accounted for only 3.8%, and last year's independent Jietu, the ambition is not small, in addition to the introduction of The Kunlun architecture derived from Chery Kunpeng Power, but also put forward a challenge to the annual sales target of 300,000. Will the aggressive shortcut further encroach on Chery's share of the main model? Chery's high-end product sequence OMODA, the first model will be listed in the first half of 2022, whether the channel, positioning and price are separated from the Xingtu district, are the problems that need to be solved in the next city this year.
The key is to look at these three variables
The auto market in 2022 has begun, and everyone is cautiously optimistic about this year's market. However, it must be admitted that this year has also undertaken the unfavorable factors affecting the car market since the epidemic era after 2020, and these potential variables that have a high probability and affect the years still affect the overall situation of car companies to complete their goals.
One of the biggest variables is when the chip crisis is fundamentally resolved. At the beginning of this year, an insider of a new energy vehicle company frankly told Che Lizi that "the impact of chip panic is greater than that of state subsidies", which was issued in the context of the easing of the chip shortage. It is true that the chip shortage is a cyclical problem, even if the situation is alleviated in 2022, it still depends on the ability of various car companies to solve the chip shortage, the most optimistic expectation of the industry at present, the large-scale lack of core tide is likely to end in the second half of 2022, but the small lack of cores of individual car companies still appears from time to time.
Data show that the shortage of chips has led to a reduction in the total production of the Chinese auto market by 2.148 million units, and the North and South Volkswagen, Shuangtian, Ford GM and even Tesla have all stopped work due to chip shortages, resulting in a decline in sales of popular cars in the same month.
There are also chip panic affecting the delivery of new cars, such as Lantu last year only delivered 0.68 million vehicles, the geely Xingyue L that was listed for half a year now has a batch of orders that have not yet been delivered, when the chip panic was the most scarce last year, GS8, Shadow Leopard and other trumpchi gave high hopes for new cars, in the 4S store even the exhibition car can not be seen, but also further squeeze the sales of new cars, not to mention the extreme dependence on chips "Wei Xiaoli" and other new forces.
Here we have to mention Geely Automobile and Dongfeng Group, which have quite aggressive targets, after all, in the case of not completing the target last year, it is not easy to achieve high growth of 24% and 25% year-on-year.
Geely's overall strength is very strong, winning the sales champion of its own brand for five consecutive years, of course, it has the courage to put forward such a goal. However, fuel vehicles are the absolute main force of Geely's sales, and according to the current plan, the Geely family will quickly turn to electrification this year, and the challenges are huge: the models equipped with the Raytheon power matrix have been listed this year, and the total sales proportion has expanded to 30-50%; the monthly delivery of high-end pure electrode krypton has stabilized at about 6,000 units; moreover, the three product lines of "smart cockpit, autonomous driving chip, and on-board central processor chip" in the planning are in full bloom, which is expected to bring a new generation of intelligent network competitiveness to Geely's new cars.
The Dongfeng Group, which relies on the joint venture, is equally difficult to achieve the goal of 2.894 million passenger car sales, here one looks at Dongfeng Honda, the second looks at Dongfeng DPCA, and the third looks at its own high-end brand Lantu, all three of which were affected by the lack of cores to varying degrees last year. It is expected that it will take a period of time to recover in 2022, but for Dongfeng Honda, after last year's sales decline and coming to this year's product year, such as a new generation of CR-V and XR-V, pure electric e: NS1 and other heavy models have been listed, it will pull its sales performance; and last September with versailles C5X turned over DPCA, monthly sales can not be stabilized at January 13,000 figures, becoming the biggest attraction of French cars this year.
The second variable lies in whether independent high-end brands can bid farewell to "thunder and rain and small points" and support half of the car companies.
A typical example here is Great Wall Motors, last year was also plagued by the uncertainty of the progress of high-end brands, although the sales growth of 15% in 2021, affected by chips are not prominent, but the backbone of sales is still the Haval brand, other sub-categories have not yet become the driving force for the development of the group, in addition to Euler's substantial sales growth of 140%, other brands performed decently, positioning the high-end WEY has become the only declining brand, The annual sales of 58,000 units are less than the 84,000 tank brands that have been independent for less than a year.
And the Great Wall to complete the target this year, the actual growth to reach a staggering 48.32%, but the Great Wall is not without cards, Haval H6, Euler "cat family" and the Great Wall Cannon are undoubtedly the mainstay, but the increment depends on WEY, tanks and other high-end brands, especially the salon mecha dragon, DHT hybrid system success or failure, not only related to the target completion rate, but also related to the success of the Great Wall's new energy strategic transformation.
Not only the WEY and salon of the Great Wall, this year's high-end new energy brands such as SAIC Zhiji, Changan Avita, Geely Krypton, Dongfeng Lantu, BAIC Jihu and so on, have ushered in an extremely important year, on the one hand, they have to solve the problem of brand recognition, get rid of Tesla + "Wei Xiaoli", then sales have drama, on the other hand, large-scale delivery, market disputes, differentiated competition will be inevitable problems, can not be perfectly answered, doomed to how far the brand can go.
And the last variable, where does the increase in joint venture fuel vehicles come from?
In the context of market purchases and purchases into the mainstream of consumption, the joint venture car companies that have not yet been transformed and take fuel vehicles as the basic sales plate, where will the increase and profits come from this year, should be a problem that every car group that relies on joint ventures must think about. For example, faw group's 4.1 million vehicles were dismantled into 2 million FAW-Volkswagen vehicles and 1 million FAW Toyota vehicles, while Hongqi and Besturn undertook only 600,000 vehicles.
If the impact of the chip is gradually reduced, this year FAW-Volkswagen to complete the total sales of 2 million vehicles is not a big problem, after all, to 2021 to complete a total of 1.85 million new car sales, of which Volkswagen and Audi brand combined to contribute more than 1.68 million vehicle models, which is also in the case of its new energy model sales in general, it is expected that the North and South Volkswagen continue to work hard ALL IN pure electric, with the new energy matrix new car to pull new increments, to be more practical.
And FAW Toyota's goal of impacting 1 million vehicles is the focus of the market, in fact, if it were not for the impact of last year's chip, Yifeng and Guangfeng would probably have completed the impact of 1 million vehicles, so the 1 million vehicles set up this year do not seem to have much suspense, Toyota's product year has continued from last year to this year, from the fourth generation Highlander / Crown Land, Toyota power new models to increase, and in China to popularize the determination of dual engine hybrid is obvious, Weisa / Lingfang HARRIER, Fenglanda / Carolar Sharp Release, Even the market performance of new models such as the Xena and the Ichiho version of the Sienna will determine the degree of completion of the two Toyotas.
According to the statistics of the Association of Passenger Vehicles, in 2021, the share of joint venture brands in the Chinese market fell by 6.9% year-on-year, while the market share of German, Japanese and Korean brands also fell by 8.9%, 1.8% and 25.9% respectively, in addition to the chip shortage factor, the joint venture was undoubtedly suppressed by independent and luxury brands, and the market share of the joint venture was further concentrated in the strong Japanese and German brands.
Write at the end
Regardless of the world, the goal is still to be there, what if it is completed? So we might as well keep these data and wait until the end of 2022 to see who is firing the cannon and who is making money silently.
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