Produced by | Beijing Maritime Securities
Naked car OR whole car?
As a consumer, would you rather buy a "naked car" powered by new energy, or would you prefer to buy a complete vehicle?
The questions you doubt are getting clearer and clearer!
Regarding the business model of "tram separation", Sinopec and Ningde Era have joined in, which is great.
The "power exchange mode" has been revived, accelerating the development of "tram separation" to depth.
This means that in the future, consumers only need to buy new energy bare cars, and then join the "power exchange mode" through the APP.
"It's amazing that this business model is similar to sharing bikes that are being popularized in major cities across the country." A consumer near Joy City in Beijing said excitedly.
He also said that the general public's understanding of the battery is relatively lacking, afraid of damage and repair, so they are more willing to choose the sharing mode of power exchange.
Under this general trend, on January 18, 2022, "Trillion Ning Wang" announced that it has entered the power exchange track, bringing new excitement to the new energy vehicle market. The Ningde era gave its latest product a beautiful name - "chocolate battery".
"Such an abacus" - exquisite!
"Hit the power-changing track!"
This not only allows the NINGD era to open up a direct-to-consumer scenario, but also to directly connect end consumers through the App. This model also fully refers to Huawei's technological innovation model.
The coffee industry's cat coffee has been welcomed by the public, in the face of the newly listed chocolate battery, will you be impressed?
01, the Ningde era is "crazy" again!
The Ningde era, known as the "King of Ning", was "crazy" again.
This time it is not the stock price, but a high-profile entry into the power exchange track!
CATL released EVOGO, the power exchange service brand, and the overall solution of combined power exchange, which will be piloted in 10 cities in the first batch.
The overall solution of the combined power exchange in the Ningde era is composed of three major products: "power exchange block, quick change station and APP". In order to achieve shared power exchange, it has specially developed and mass-produced "chocolate power exchange block", using wireless BMS technology, and a single battery can provide an endurance of about 200 kilometers.
This shared mass-produced battery, the "chocolate power exchange block", can be adapted to the models developed by 80% of the world's pure electric platforms that are already on the market and will be launched in the next three years.
Regarding the construction of the substation and app, CATL claims that the substation it designs has four characteristics: "small area, fast circulation, large capacity and full climate". Each standard station only needs three parking spaces, and it takes about 1 minute for a single block to change electricity, and 48 power exchange blocks can be stored in the station.
At the same time, the substation can also be provided with versions adapted to the climatic and environmental conditions of different regions. Consumers can choose the power exchange service through the APP, and more APP functions will be launched in the future.
The latest developments show that the "Times Service" APP can be searched and downloaded in apple's App Store (screenshot below).
Manufacturing giant Ning Wang entered the power exchange track this time, and also put on the cloak of Internet genes. The power exchange APP allows the Ningde era to have a direct consumer-facing scene and can directly connect with consumers, which has the potential to be not underestimated!
It can be seen that the ambition of this layout in the Ningde era is huge!
It probably wants to use the power exchange model as a starting point to comprehensively improve the transformation of the company, making it a giant enterprise in the whole industry chain with research and development, manufacturing, recycling, energy storage and utilization, and then operation.
In the future, what the NINGDE era hopes for should be: EVOGO charging station to build a large shared charging treasure center, without the limitation of model batteries.
So, can the future be as "Ning" wishes?
After all, this power exchange model, even Tesla did not start at the beginning.
02, Tesla's power exchange mode "fiasco"!
In fact, the power exchange model entered the field of new energy vehicles as early as ten years ago.
In 2007, Xia Jiaxi, known as the father of the "power exchange concept", originally proposed this business model.
Xia Jiaxi set up Better Place to solve the range anxiety of electric vehicle users at that time by using the power exchange model. However, the company filed for bankruptcy in 2013 after burning up $850 million in investment in six years.
In the second month after the fall of Better Place, Tesla released a new power exchange technology in the United States, which can be completed in 93 seconds, musk shouted: Power up is faster than refueling.
Finally, with too few consumers to support, Tesla eventually abandoned this power swap model.
The main reason why Tesla's power exchange model failed was the high fee. Compared with Tesla's free overcharge, the replacement of electricity requires the owner to pay an additional fee of 60-80 US dollars, which is more expensive than a gasoline car. Secondly, it is the troublesome power exchange process, and it has not been able to achieve the state of "changing and leaving".
In essence, Tesla's power exchange model was not successful, in addition to the high investment and operating cost factors, there is also an important factor is the "property rights" issue.
To be precise, Tesla's power exchange is called "borrowing electricity". It is equivalent to borrowing a battery from a replacement power station, and then "mortgage" your battery to the replacement power station, and then you have to "change" your battery back.
In this way, a complete set of processes of "borrowing electricity" - "mortgage" - "retrieving" has been formed.
This model is based on the fact that the car and the battery cannot be separated, and both are the "property rights" of the owner, and the replacement power station provides a temporary lending service.
The most annoying thing is that. After the Owner of Tesla replaces the battery, he needs to change it back when he returns, or Tesla will mail it to you (for a fee), and if you want to keep the new battery, you will have to make up the difference.
This means that after the user replaces the battery, it is likely that the user will have to run a separate trip for the battery left in the replacement station. Isn't this too much for the owner to "go crazy"?
It can be seen that the business model envisioned by Tesla at that time was not mature. This "car and electricity are not separated" approach is doomed not to be successfully commercialized.
This is not the same as the "car and battery separation" power exchange mode that we are now engaged in in China. First of all, in the process of this point, the catheter era of the power exchange program and Tesla have an essential difference.
The Ningde era is "change and go", saying that one minute is one minute, and there are no follow-up steps. Ningde era replacement power station storage, management of all batteries, all batteries also belong to the Ningde era, each replacement station is also interconnected, as long as you change the next time you change the power back on the line.
Secondly, Tesla's "power exchange program" had many restrictions on the cost of power exchange, the user base, and the power exchange technology at that time. The current Ningde era has a unique environment.
03, Zeng Yuqun's "Ruyi Abacus"
"Substation" - 10 times growth in 5 years?
In 2021, the Ningde era felt lonely, and the market value fell by 380 billion yuan at one point.
"Death is glorious"!
The new energy power exchange track is calling to the Ningde era.
Shanghai No. 001 substation can achieve a rapid power change in 20 seconds at the fastest, and the whole process of power exchange service takes only 1 minute. The Ningde era is challenging this speed.
CITIC Securities pointed out that 2022 is expected to become the first year of the rapid development of the power exchange industry, and more than 3,000 new substations are expected to be added throughout the year. In the longer term, the industry's new replacement power stations are expected to exceed 10,000 in 2025, and there is "10 times in five years" development space.
Soochow Securities said that 2022 is the first year of the power station release, and the replacement equipment manufacturers will benefit the most. It is estimated that in 2025, more than 16,000 new substations will be added, and the investment in new equipment will exceed 60 billion yuan.
Such a large new cake attracts many "predators".
The problem is that the power exchange track needs a company with enough technical strength and influence to take the lead.
The lead enterprise must be able to give a "power exchange solution" that meets the market demand of car companies and markets to the greatest extent, with high efficiency and controllable cost.
So far, there are not many companies that have the ability to do this, and CATL is the most powerful competitor among them.
According to the data released by the China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance, the annual installed capacity of CATL in 2021 is 80.51GWh, accounting for 52.1% of the domestic market, far ahead of the second PLACE BYD.
In the global market, from January to November 2021, the installed capacity of power batteries in the Ningde era increased by as much as 180%, ranking first in the world, with a share of 31.8%. Although LG New Energy ranked second after it, its market share was only 20.5%.
(Source: China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance)
From the perspective of the latest competitive situation, the Ningde era has "pushed the power exchange market forward".
From the perspective of the Ningde era, Zeng Yuqun's entry into the power exchange track is not a whim.
In December 2021, the People's Government of Guizhou Province and CATL announced cooperation in the construction of a power exchange network, which is committed to building Guizhou into a demonstration area of China's provincial power exchange network. It can be seen that after testing the water and electricity market for many years, the Ningde era came prepared and began to increase horsepower to enter the siege.
With the user power exchange scenario, derived behavior data, payment habits, etc., ningde era is no longer a simple 2B company, and the future business model and scenario are more imaginative.
Referring to Huawei's new technology model, this is a "schedule" of the Ningde era.
This schedule reveals Zeng Yuqun's strategic plan for the Ningde era.
Behind the hustle and bustle, it also triggered a fierce debate about the market value revaluation of the Ningde era.
According to the forecast of securities companies, in terms of the scale of the domestic power exchange market, it can reach 500 billion yuan in the next ten years.
If the Cataline era occupies 20% of the market share, there is also a revenue cake of 100 billion yuan. Obviously, this is a very substantial income.
In the third quarter of 2021, the revenue of CATL was 29.287 billion yuan, an increase of 130.73% year-on-year, the net profit attributable to the mother was 3.267 billion yuan, an increase of 160.16% year-on-year, and the comprehensive gross profit margin was 27.9%. It is estimated that in 2021, the operating income of CATL will be about 120 billion yuan.
A more radical view is that ningde era to increase investment in the power exchange business, can be described as "three birds with one stone", which can not only expand consumption scenarios, but also open up new growth points. What is more worth looking forward to is that the trillion-dollar market value of the giant Mac took the opportunity to cultivate a "new asset".
It is expected that the fastest, CATL in the next 3 years, that is, the conditions to inject this asset into the listed company. Therefore, the revaluation of the market value of the Ningde era is undoubtedly good news.
According to the current market value of 1.3 trillion yuan, the market value of the Ningde era has more room to climb in the next few years. In other words, this new asset will also bring hematopoietic function to listed companies, adding new sources of profit.
04、 Follow-up? OR "running with you"?
This is a market opportunity of 1.8 trillion yuan.
At the same time, the logic of the market is changing.
For example, BAIC BJEV and Weilai, the main purpose of these car companies to do power exchange models, the main purpose is to sell cars, rather than to breed a new market through power exchange.
CICC believes that the new energy vehicle power exchange model has higher energy replenishment efficiency and is conducive to resource allocation, and in 2022, there will be a situation of "a big outbreak of power exchange, car companies accelerating the self-construction of ultra/fast charging stations, and slow charging accelerating into the community". By 2025, the number of substations will be about 12,500 to 51,900.
In the long run, the country needs 550,000 passenger car replacement power stations and 60,000 heavy truck replacement power stations, corresponding to a total of 1.8 trillion yuan of substation equipment and grid-side equipment.
"That's up to 6x more room for growth."
According to Bloomberg's forecast, the proportion of China's new energy vehicle electricity consumption in the total electricity consumption of the whole society will climb from 1.3% in 2020 to 8%.
The policy also supports it! The mainland is one of the few countries in the world that has adopted top-level incentives for the power exchange model. As an important part of the country's new infrastructure, the substation has also been written into the "Government Work Report" of the two sessions of the National People's Congress for the first time in 2020, and has been highly valued at the national strategic level.
According to the forecast of the China Automobile Association, the sales volume of new energy vehicles is expected to reach 5 million units in 2022, with a growth rate of more than 50% and a penetration rate of more than 18%.
At the beginning of January 2022, Geely also officially announced a new power exchange travel brand, and Geely Automobile and Lifan Technology officially laid out the power exchange mode in an all-round way. Compared with enterprises such as the Ningde era, Geely, as a car company, obviously has a different volume of voice when it joins the power exchange mode.
Geely's goal of joining the power exchange market is to "make the travel experience better by changing electricity".
Different from other power exchange models that are only for end consumers, Geely will provide a complete set of solutions including power exchange products and power exchange services for both B-end and C-end users.
Geely's power exchange technology, based on the GBRC Geely power exchange platform architecture system, can adapt to a wide wheelbase range of 2700-3100mm.
Due to the wide range of adaptations, the above power exchange scheme covers many categories such as cars, SUVs, MPVs and even logistics vehicles and light trucks, and can achieve "60 seconds" rapid power exchange. This kind of ultra-wide domain adaptability is not covered by most of the current power exchange platforms, so it is also where Geely's competitiveness lies.
According to the plan, Geely will build more than 5,000 substations in 2025 to achieve coverage of more than 100 core cities.
According to public information, the cost of the battery accounts for 40% of the price of the new energy vehicle, if the introduction of power exchange, in the mode of separation of vehicle and electricity, consumers can choose to rent a battery to buy a car, thereby saving the cost of car purchase.
In 2022, the new energy vehicle, "tram separation" model will be the most popular among consumers!
05. "Tram separation" mode: China's curve overtaking?
The operation mode of the shared battery lies in the "separation of trams".
The essence of the "tram separation" model is that when the owner buys new energy vehicles, he only needs to pay the vehicle fee, and the battery fee adopts the long-term rental method.
When the battery is exhausted, the range can be achieved by quickly changing the power, which is undoubtedly an additional choice for the user.
More critically, because the power exchange time is much shorter than charging, there is a large demand space for the development model of "tram separation".
CATL power exchange brand EVOGO recruited city partners
At present, there are about 7 domestic companies that produce electric vehicle power exchange, of which listed companies include: Beiqi Blue Valley, Lifan Technology, Weilai Automobile; non-listed companies include: space-time electric vehicles, Aodong New Energy, Botan Technology and Dianba New Energy.
Judging from the scale of domestic electric vehicle replacement enterprises to build power stations, the top three occupy an absolute share of the market, Aodong New Energy ranks first with 338 seats, Weilai Automobile ranks second with 271 seats, and Botan Technology ranks third with 1071 seats.
Aodong New Energy Substation is distributed in 20 cities across the country, mainly concentrated in Beijing, Guangzhou, Xiamen and other cities, the business is aimed at operating vehicles and private cars, rising stars, product types, comprehensive competitiveness is strong.
Weilai Automobile Substation has covered 76 cities, mainly concentrated in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai and central regions, with a strong expansion ability and strong comprehensive strength for private cars.
Botan Technology Substation has covered 14 cities, mainly concentrated in the eastern coastal and central regions, the business is aimed at operating vehicles, the expansion capacity is average, and the comprehensive strength is general.
The industry competition pattern has been formed, how to break the situation in the Latecomer Ningde Era?
At present, the complete industrial pattern of China's new energy vehicles has initially taken shape. However, any industry usually goes through multiple stages of introduction, imitation, innovation, and transcendence.
From this point of view, in order to rely on the innovative model of power exchange and form a new development direction, when the mainland chooses the demonstration of tram separation, it must continue to innovate the development model, innovate more products, and innovate deeper technologies.
In the end, these market demands must be implemented in the competition of enterprises in order to fully meet the needs of consumers for "bare cars".
If this is the case, the mainland will achieve overtaking in the corner in the field of new energy vehicles in advance, worthy of the resounding title of China's "intelligent manufacturing"!