Japan's Mitsubishi recently announced a cooperation with Bosch in Germany to carry out pure electric vehicle replacement tests in China based on the Beiqi Blue Valley test vehicle. Another giant entered the power exchange market, opening a new round of electric vehicle charging and replacing disputes.
Looking back at the two sessions of the National People's Congress, the construction of pure electric vehicle infrastructure is also a hot spot for the delegates. Lei Jun, CEO of Xiaomi Group, suggested accelerating the construction of high-power fast charging infrastructure for new energy vehicles; Yin Tongyue, chairman of Chery Automobile, suggested that standards be introduced to optimize the development and construction of charging infrastructure for new energy vehicles.
On the other hand, there are not a few supporters of the power exchange mode. Li Shufu, chairman of Geely Automobile, suggested increasing the construction of electric vehicle replacement system and promoting the standardization and generalization of power exchange models. Although Zeng Yuqun, chairman of CATL, did not explicitly mention the charging and replacing business at the two sessions, on the eve of the two sessions, CATL announced the layout of taxis and heavy-duty truck replacement markets, and has established cooperation with Sany Heavy Industry and Fujian Province.
In fact, the much-mentioned power exchange mode is not a new technical route. As early as 2007, the State Grid advocated "power exchange as the main and plug-in as a supplement". In 2013, with the bankruptcy of Better Place, the first passenger car replacement company, the policy was also adjusted to "mainly charging mode". In 2020, the policy was adjusted again, and 600 billion yuan of the 375 million yuan of local government special bonds issued by the government were used for the construction of charging piles and substations, and the 2021 government work report once again mentioned "increasing charging piles, substations and other facilities".
From the above thick line combing, it can be seen that the Chinese government level has roughly experienced the process from supporting power exchange, supporting charging, to supporting the charging and replacing mode of "walking on two legs". But for manufacturers, there are not so many resources going hand in hand, in order to occupy the opportunity in the automotive refueling market, they can only bet on a technical route that is more suitable for their own strategy.
"The first year of the power station change"
Driven by the policy, the power exchange model ushered in a new outlet, but the scale of the power station replacement is still a short board restricting its development.
Since 2020, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has issued various new energy vehicle promotion subsidy plans, all of which have been marked as "pure electric vehicles priced at more than 300,000 yuan without subsidies, except for models that support power exchange". In this context, third-party operators represented by Aodong, main engine factories represented by Weilai and Beiqi Langu, and national teams such as the State Grid have laid out the power exchange market. Tianyan's inspection shows that the number of terms related to power exchange enterprises has reached 98,000.
Screenshot of the subsidy scheme
Auto analyst Zhong Shi told the author that the penetration rate and ownership of new energy vehicles continue to grow, and there is a huge demand for energy replenishment in the market itself, and it is impossible to meet market demand by relying on a single model. Market-driven superimposed policy support, 2022 will be the first year of the power station release.
According to CITIC Securities data, in February this year, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles was 21.8%. According to data from the Ministry of Public Security, by the end of 2021, the number of new energy vehicles in the country reached 7.84 million, accounting for 2.60% of the total number of vehicles, an increase of nearly 60% month-on-month. CITIC Securities Research Report pointed out that it is expected that the number of new substations will exceed 3,000 in 2022; the number of new power stations is expected to exceed 10,000 in 2025. It is expected that the number of replacement power stations in 2025 will exceed 30,000, which is 30 times that of 2021.
However, as of the end of December 2021, the number of substations in China is less than 1,300.
The substation is considered "as convenient as refueling", and the whole process takes about 3-5 minutes from the time the vehicle is parked to the battery pack is replaced. Car owners have a good experience, why is it so difficult to promote?
Tesla in 2013 in the U.S. domestic market to implement the power exchange model, and applied for a highway power exchange patent, the whole process of the power exchange mode takes 90 seconds. Affected by the cost, Tesla gave up on changing the route. Tesla has announced that the construction cost of power replacement alone is as high as 500,000 US dollars (about 3.16 million yuan), not including post-operation and maintenance, manpower, and rental costs.
In March last year, Tesla vice president Tao Lin responded to the choice of charging and replacing the road, "Tesla has always believed that the charging mode is the best way to replenish the energy of large-scale civilian electric vehicles. And pointed out that the battery development is changing with each passing day, the battery specifications and models are different, "even the battery models of different models of the same brand are also different", which also directly affects the promotion of the power exchange mode.
Tao Lin mentioned the battery model problem, Li Shufu gave a suggestion, power battery products can not be unified, resulting in the power exchange mode is difficult to form a scale effect, need to accelerate the promotion of power exchange mode standardization, generalization. Promote the standardization of software and hardware protocols for power exchange interfaces, preset 2-3 technically advanced interface forms, and formulate recommended standards; standardize the mechanism, form, and compatibility of power exchange power stations; promote the standard formulation of power exchange battery packs, so that power exchange battery packs can be interchangeable and interchangeable between different car companies, different power stations, and different users.
Interestingly, the entry of the Ningde era is interpreted by the industry as a good opportunity for the "great unification" of battery specifications. In January this year, CATL founded CATL times said that Choco-SEB battery blocks can be applied to 80% of the pure electric platform electric vehicles that have been listed and will be listed within the next 3 years, from micro to large electric vehicles, from passenger cars to logistics vehicles.
"The power exchange model is a heavy asset, and the battery pack of the commercial vehicle market cut into the Ningde era is easy to form a unified standard, which can achieve commercial operation faster." The follow-up power exchange market is mature, and it is expected that the Ningde era will also follow up the layout of passenger car replacement tracks. Master Zhong analyzed.
"Charge for one hour, queue for five hours"
It is undeniable that the power exchange mode is still the main mode of energy replenishment at this stage. Holiday travel charging is difficult, extreme scenarios of rare charging problems infinite amplification of charging mode drawbacks, so the owner of the car ridiculed "charging for one hour, queuing for five hours" Under the market demand, the promotion of the fast charging model is also accelerating.
The route of the fast charge mode is divided into: increasing the charging current or increasing the charging voltage. Tesla's technical route is to increase the current, its V3 charging pile peak current can reach 600A, the peak power has been increased to 250kW, Musk said Tesla will also develop a maximum power of 300kW V3 charging pile. Porsche is the forerunner of increasing the voltage, in 2019, its first mass-produced pure electric model Taycan is based on the 800V platform to build, the peak charging power can reach 270kW, 5 minutes of battery recharge can be charged from 5% to 80%, thus unveiling the "arms race" of fast charging.
Porsche Taycan
In November last year, Audi put into use in the German domestic market super charging station, the charging station has 6 super charging piles, the maximum power of each charging pile up to 320kW; Xiaopeng, GAC is expected to launch a fast charging pure electric model this year, to achieve "charging 5 minutes, endurance 200KM"; domestic manufacturers BYD, Lantu and so on are also stepping up the layout of fast charging.
However, Lei Jun disclosed a data in the proposal on fast charging, the current mainland public charging pile in the fast charging pile accounted for only 40%, and the fast charging power is generally low.
"Before the 400KW fast charging technology matures, Ideal Car will not launch a pure electric model." Ideal Auto Chairman Li Xiang has said publicly.
It is worth noting that the fast charging model comes with risks. The process of charging a lithium battery is the process of lithium ions reaching the negative electrode from the positive electrode, and the process passes through the diaphragm and electrolyte on the way, which includes the shedding, migration and embedding of lithium ions. The more lithium ions arrive in a unit of time, the faster the charging speed. If lithium evolution occurs, battery life will be affected, and there is even a risk of fire and explosion.
Battery Hundred People will yu Qingjiao said, "It is actually easy to achieve about 80% of the energy in a short period of time, but it is difficult to take into account the battery life and safety." ”
epilogue
Charging and replacing have their own problems, relying on a single energy replenishment mode is difficult to meet the market demand, power exchange mode and charging mode is not an either-or relationship, more is the complementarity of the use of scenarios.
In the C-end market, the charging mode is still the mainstream, and the power exchange mode is more of a way for some groups to replenish energy in special scenarios, the latter is heavy on assets, the business model is not clear, resulting in an uncertain return cycle, the promotion of manufacturers in the C-end market is limited, and the technical bottleneck of the charging mode restricts the further development of the fast charging model.
Coordinating the balanced development of the two is the best way to improve the energy replenishment market. Taking Shanghai as an example, in February this year, the Shanghai government issued the "Implementation Opinions on Further Promoting the Construction of Charging and Replacing Infrastructure in the City", which pointed out that "in the future, the charging and replacement infrastructure in Shanghai will be mainly charged, supplemented by power exchange, and the power exchange focus will be applied at a high level in taxis and other fields. ”