Although the USDA supply and demand report is not as favorable as the market expected, the market is still worried about unfavorable crop weather in South America, and it is expected that the USDA may continue to cut south American #soybean production, US beans continue to rise, hitting a new eight-month high, and the main contract in today's Asian electronic disk is breaking through the 1600 cent mark. Boosted by the strong new highs in the outer market, the domestic market continued to rise sharply, the #soybean meal # main contract broke through the suppression of the 2021 high in one fell swoop, the #futures # rose as high as 3843 yuan / ton, refreshing the highest since June 2014, the main contract position increased for the third consecutive day, the futures price rose by 2.39%, the soybean two was boosted by the rise in the outer plate and soybean meal, the main contract futures price rose by 2.66%.
The USDA's February supply and demand report projected Brazilian soybean production at 134 million tonnes, down from its January estimate of 139 million tonnes, and revised down argentina's soybean production forecast from 46.5 million tonnes to 45 million tonnes, similar to analysts' previous estimates. In addition, the USDA revised down its #U.S. Soybean ending stock estimate to 325 million bushels from 350 million bushels in January, higher than analysts' estimates of 310 million bushels.
Brazil's soybean production forecast was cut by 7 percent from December to February, the largest downward revision of brazil's soybean production estimate since the same period in the calendar year since 2012/13. This also leads to global soybean year-end inventories forecasted to be near an eight-year low, but given the slowdown in demand from China, the world's largest soybean importer, its impact on the market is not expected to be too large.
The USDA report also supports the view of the recent decline in China's soybean demand, with its forecast for China's soybean imports this year down to 97 million mt from 100 million tonnes last month, also down from 99.8 million mt last year. However, the current USDA estimates are more conservative than those of major analysts, with consultants forecasting brazilian soybean production below 130 million tonnes and forecasting Brazilian soybean production downward to 125 million tonnes.
Some market participants believe that the loss of #Brazilian soybean production will be reflected in the increase in U.S. soybean exports, but this is not currently the case due to the decline in Chinese imports. But analysts note that global buyers have been snapping up old U.S. soybeans lately, so U.S. soybean exports could be boosted if Brazil's soybean output projections go further.
After the holiday, the spot price of soybean meal in the mainland also continued to rise sharply, and the price of many places rose by 60-200 yuan / ton today, and the spot quotation of coastal soybean meal ran between 4100-4400 yuan / ton.
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