February 10, 2022 soda ash market comments: 1, this afternoon soda ash futures, glass futures have risen sharply, as of the close, the two main contract prices were closed at 312

February 10, 2022 Soda ash market review:

1, this afternoon soda ash futures, glass futures have risen sharply, as of the close, the two main contract prices closed at 3125 yuan / ton, 2359 yuan / ton, an increase of 6% and 3.28% respectively. The sharp rise in soda ash futures has not shown substantial changes in the supply and demand level, and the current trend is mainly driven by emotions.

2, from the fundamental point of view, this week's soda ash industry overall operating rate of 83.4%, down 0.8 percentage points week-on-week, week-on-week output of 561,600 tons, although the production level is high, but recently there has been a slight decline. During the Spring Festival, due to the reduction of downstream orders, logistics suspension and other factors, the company's inventory increased by about 180,000 tons this week. Although the accumulation of enterprises is a seasonal phenomenon, the accumulation of inventory this year is not as good as in the same period of previous years, which has brought strong support to corporate quotations and futures market prices. In addition, the recent soda ash futures plate rose larger, soda ash futures premium is also expanding, the expansion of the futures spread to the futures traders to bring arbitrage space, traders to purchase the number of increased, this week the social inventory increased by about 50,000 tons. The inventory of raw material soda ash before the Spring Festival of downstream glass enterprises is about 40 days, but the procurement of the Spring Festival is relatively small, the raw material inventory of glass enterprises has declined, and the market also has strong expectations for the future replenishment of soda ash by glass enterprises.

3. Recently, most soda ash enterprises have not quoted, the price of heavy alkali in central China has increased from 2500 yuan / ton a few years ago to 2700 yuan / ton, and some manufacturers in the northwest region have also raised the price of soda ash by 50 to 100 yuan / ton, and the rise in spot prices has also brought support to futures prices.

4, the recent rise in glass prices is obvious, the previous market expected over-age service production line cold repair logic short-term falsification, soda ash market actual consumption still has rigid support, demand side drive also exists. In the second quarter, the photovoltaic glass production line or gradually put into production, when the demand side of soda ash is still incrementally driven.

5, the United States natural soda ash due to weather factors transportation obstruction, export restrictions, China's soda ash imports are limited, export share increased, before April China's import and export pattern is good. In mid-February, a batch of 17,000 tons of Turkish natural alkali arrived at the port, and the dutiable price was about 2800 yuan / ton, slightly higher than the current spot prices in North China and Central China, and the possibility of another increase in spot prices was not ruled out in the later period.

6, overall, the recent soda ash spot market has not shown major changes, the supply and demand game will continue to maintain, the Winter Olympics will have a certain impact on the production of some enterprises but the amplitude is not large, do not have to worry too much about this. At present, the source of soda ash has shifted from enterprises to society, and the sentiment of futures disks remains high, and it is not excluded that the soda ash futures price caused by the departure of short funds in this evening and subsequent time may rise again. The short-term soda ash disk will continue to maintain an upward trend, but the current soda ash fundamentals may be difficult to support the long-term and sustained sharp rise of the disk, and the recent large fluctuations of coal, crude oil and natural gas will also have an impact on the price of soda ash futures.

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