The tone of the Fed interest rate meeting was hawkish, US Treasury interest rates rose, and US stocks fell back in the tail end. Our interpretation is: 1. The policy statement hints at a march rate hike, but the magnitude of the rate hike and the path of subsequent rate hikes remain

The tone of the Fed interest rate meeting was hawkish, US Treasury interest rates rose, and US stocks fell back in the tail end. Our interpretation is:

1. The policy statement hints at a march rate hike, but the magnitude of the rate hike and the path of subsequent rate hikes remain to be discussed. Given Powell's repeated emphasis on the strength of the U.S. economy and excessive inflation, the Fed still has the potential to tighten more than expected.

2. Which statements are hawkish? When asked if he would raise rates in a row at each subsequent meeting, and whether it was possible to raise rates by 50 bp at once, Powell did not give a definitive response or rebuttal. Since there is no denial, it is equivalent to not ruling out this possibility.

3. The Fed announced the principle of balance sheet reduction, and the specific arrangements are still insconclusive. Powell hinted that 2 to 3 interest-bearing meetings were needed to discuss the details of the reduction, which means that the reduction may begin in the third quarter. The balance sheet reduction will still be carried out in a predictable manner, suggesting that there will be no active sell-off of bonds for the time being.

4. Powell is "calm" about stock market volatility. Forced by inflationary pressures, the Fed has no way back in the direction of tightening, and it is unlikely to turn to easing in the short term. This means that the Fed will not play the role of "savior" and "Fed puts" will no longer work.

5. Although the direction of monetary tightening has been set, the Fed has been slow to act concretely. Rather than "rhetorical" tightening, investors want to know how and how the Fed will control inflation, information that was not reflected in the rate meeting.