【Lao Ding Finance: What are the highlights of the new social finance data in January?】 Under the influence of the "dislocation" of the Spring Festival, M1 turned negative for the first time and M2 rebounded significantly. January, M1 yoY -1.9%

【Lao Ding Finance: What are the highlights of the new social finance data in January?】 】

Under the influence of the "dislocation" of the Spring Festival, M1 turned negative for the first time and M2 rebounded significantly. In January, M1 was -1.9% year-on-year, compared with 3.5% last month, and M2 was 9.8% year-on-year, up 0.8 percentage points from the previous month. The negative M1 turn is related to the high base of the Spring Festival "dislocation"; in the deposit sub-item, resident deposits and corporate deposits increased by 3.9 trillion yuan and decreased by 2.3 trillion yuan respectively year-on-year, non-bank deposits decreased by 71.6 billion yuan year-on-year, and fiscal deposits increased by more than 580 billion yuan year-on-year.

The new social financing increased year-on-year, with credit and government bonds contributing more than 75% in total, and corporate bonds also pulling. In January, the new social financing increased by 984.2 billion yuan to 6.17 trillion yuan year-on-year, of which RMB loans and government bonds increased by 380.6 billion yuan and 358.9 billion yuan to 4.2 trillion yuan and 602.6 billion yuan respectively year-on-year; corporate bonds increased by 188.2 billion yuan to 579.9 billion yuan year-on-year; trust, entrustment and off-balance sheet bills changed by 16.2 billion yuan, 33.7 billion yuan and -17.1 billion yuan respectively compared with the same period in 2021; and equity financing increased slightly by 44.8 billion yuan to 143.9 billion yuan. In the year-on-year increase in credit, bills still account for the main body, and medium- and long-term loans of enterprises have turned positive year-on-year, and resident loans are relatively weak. Among the credit sub-items, medium- and long-term loans and short-term loans of enterprises increased by 60 billion yuan and 434.5 billion yuan to 2.1 trillion yuan and 1 trillion yuan respectively year-on-year, and bills increased by 319.3 billion yuan to 178.8 billion yuan year-on-year; resident medium and long-term loans and short-term loans increased by 202.4 billion yuan and 227.2 billion yuan to 742.4 billion yuan and 100.6 billion yuan respectively, and non-bank loans decreased by 57.5 billion yuan year-on-year.

Risk warning: The epidemic situation exceeded expectations, etc. (data from the International Financial Research Institute, etc.).