Survivor bias is a common logical fallacy that means that only the results produced by some kind of screening can be seen, without being aware of the screening process, so the key information that is filtered out is ignored. There are many aliases, such as "silent data", "dead people can't speak" and so on.
Regarding Survivorship Bias, there is a well-known case of "aircraft protection".
In 1941, during World War II, Abraham Wald, a professor of statistics at Columbia University in the United States, used his statistical expertise at the request of the military to provide advice on how aircraft should be better protected to reduce the chance of being shot down by artillery fire. Professor Ward conducted a study of the data after the attack of the Coalition bombers and found that the wings were the most vulnerable positions to be hit, and the tail was the least hit position. Professor Ward concluded that "we should strengthen the protection of the tail", while the military commander believed that "the protection of the wings should be strengthened, because this is the most vulnerable position to hit". Professor Ward insists:
(1) Statistical samples, covering only bombers returning safely;
(2) Bombers who have been hit by the wings many times seem to be able to return safely;
(3) In the position of the tail of the aircraft, the reason why the bullet hole is rarely found is not that it will not really be shot, but once it is shot, the probability of its safe return is minimal.
Eventually, the military adopted the professor's advice and later confirmed that the decision was correct, with invisible bullet marks being the most deadly!
A very important reason for the emergence of logical fallacies such as "survivor bias" is that people are accustomed to paying attention to existing and immediate things, that is, they believe more in "seeing is believing" and ignoring some hidden information and details.
We all love to hear the stories of successful people, and there are many people who will summarize their experiences and the reasons for their success. We only saw those who came out of the jungle, but the large number of people who got lost and died in the middle of the road, we did not see, nor did they have the opportunity to tell us their stories.
Therefore, when analyzing and dealing with problems, you may wish to ask yourself whether this is really the case? Why is that? In addition, you can communicate with others more.
#Survivor Bias # #Thinking # Thinking Model # Thinking Mode # #思维认知 #
