Morgan Stanley report: Tesla will surpass GM, Ford's US market share

Tesla swept the auto industry, forcing the original automakers to make major changes. But it looks like the changes they've made and will continue to make in the near future aren't enough to maintain their sales lead for Tesla, and now analysts predict that companies like General Motors and Ford will see their market share decline in the coming years.

The forecast comes from famed Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas, who expects Tesla's market share in the U.S. to grow to 18 percent by 2030, while General Motors and Ford have market shares of 12 percent and 10 percent, respectively. Today, GM has a market share of 14 percent, Ford 12.5 percent and Tesla 3.5 percent, but Despite shrinking markets, the COVID-19 pandemic, and persistent chip shortages, Tesla's share continues to grow.

Jonas also predicts that Tesla will have a 10% market share in the U.S. by 2026 or 2027. GM's share is expected to fall to 14 percent or less by then and then to 12 percent in 2030. Ford's share is expected to decline by 2030, just over 10%.

However, while Tesla won't have more market share than Ford or General Motors by 2027, Jonas predicts that the EV maker will make more revenue than their total revenue, and this trend should become apparent over the next two years.

Tesla recently sold more than BMW in the U.S., selling 16,000 more cars (regardless of electricity) than BMW (352,471 and 336,644, respectively). It also sold more cars than Lexus (304,476 in the U.S.) and Mercedes-Benz (276,102).