More and more competitors, more and more privacy + security issues, Tesla sales in China zero, has been more than Morgan Stanley analysts speculate.
In 2021, the sales figure in the Chinese market is 413,200 units, and the combined sales of the Model 3 and Model Y vehicles exceed 400,000 units. How to understand the above figures, it is equivalent to Tesla has 2 models with the same market performance as the Honda CR-V.
The more scolding, the more fiery, the Shanghai Auto Show roof rights protection + vehicles can not enter the doors of many relevant units in many countries, and there are many related cases, continue to maintain crazy growth. What's even more frightening is that if Elon Musk thinks, the sales volume in the Chinese market can even exceed 600,000 units, because the cars produced in the Shanghai factory are not exported and delivered directly to Chinese consumers.
Looking at the eyes of 2022, as the price of Tesla Model 3 and Model Y rises again, its orders have been speculated to a price increase of 3,000 yuan, in other words, "no matter how Tesla makes consumers pay, current consumers are willing to bear."
Therefore, Tesla's sales fell off the altar in an instant, fell sharply at a certain point in time, or even cleared zero, is such a topic unbelievable, even alarmist?
People who have successfully speculated that Space X hundreds of billions and Tesla trillions believe that in the era of zero intelligence, the most valuable thing is in addition to computing power and chips, and the core of the bottom layer is still valid data. Therefore, companies with core high-sticky user data are always at the high point of stock price and market value, such as Apple, Amazon, and Tesla.
However, mastering data is not the same as winning, and who can read the data is the owner of value. Therefore, when an analyst named Adam Johnas (Morgan Stanley) can always read elon Musk's industrial future through data, he gave Tesla that tesla can quickly reach the peak of sales in the Chinese market between 2020 and 2030 under the premise of all forecasts.
You know, this person's previous predictions were all correct.
Including, in 2014, when Tesla incurred huge losses, he suggested that investors hold it for a long time, because Tesla has become the world's most important car company.
In mid-2020, it was predicted that Space X's market capitalization would exceed $100 billion in a short period of time, and this has since happened.
In early 2021, it is recommended that investors accelerate their holding of Tesla stock, after which Tesla completes the trillion market value and Musk becomes the richest man.
If you want, you can search for a large number of predictions about Elon Musk and eventually find that his conclusions are accurate, saying both the good and the bad.
On the bad side, there is the above sentence: "Tesla will quickly reach the peak of sales in the Chinese market in a certain year before 2030, but then decline rapidly until it reaches zero." ”
The deep reason behind this is that in the data security and data privacy parts, Tesla has a congenital defect and cannot make relevant matches. See here, if you are relatively familiar with Tesla, know that it has established a data center in China, in fact, has completed the relevant matching, the future can be expected, then we can expand to see the next Tesla on the other side.
2025, about Tesla's foreseeable point in time
Following the above topic, whether Tesla's establishment of a data center in China means equals data security and data privacy, the answer is no, what it shows is only to cope with the rapid growth of sales and cater to the attitude. Tesla's next problem is regulation, full competition in the market, international relations, no more deception, and so on.
Careful analysis of Tesla as a company, its current market difference characteristics are 3.
1. Bold style, many advanced technologies are constantly applied in vehicles, of course, leaving a lot of uncertainty for global consumers;
2. The price changes with the change, through the integrated die casting process, Internet thinking manufacturing (the core components are randomly replaced in the manufacturing process), effectively reducing costs and improving efficiency, which also forms a price advantage, and there is no direct opponent in the same price;
3. Global/Chinese differential treatment, this is about the company's operating ideas, the current facts include that Tesla's Chinese owners are the only ones in the world to be sued by it, and most of the overseas markets are mainly corrective/out-of-court settlements. The same is true for the vehicle part, such as lithium iron phosphate batteries, such as airbags + HW hardware reductions for the Chinese market, and then quietly cutting redundant ECUs.
Following the above three characteristics, Tesla's current situation in China is actually far more unfavorable than Adam Johnas's prediction. In particular, combined with this particular point in time in 2025.
Bold style, advanced technology in the vehicle continuous application, the immediate direct case is FSD. Cutting off millimeter-wave radar sensors and relying solely on cameras to accomplish what Musk calls "automatic" driving relies on absolute confidence in computing power/algorithms. However, the thinking of other car companies around the world is the opposite of Tesla, lidar continues to get on the body, make new perception redundancy, and seek the fourth layer of redundancy after millimeter-wave radar, 4D radar, and visual perception, and pursue absolute safety.
In 2022, we will probably see 5-10 new models equipped with lidar in the Chinese market (Weilai, Xiaopeng, Nezha, Mercedes-Benz, BMW, etc.), and more and more advanced technology and stable car companies will undoubtedly make consumers think new. In addition, the reality to be added is that Tesla has always been making special offerings to Chinese consumers, such as the version of FSD is currently lagging behind overseas, for example, the US/German regulatory agency has begun a new round of investigation into Tesla's FSD ghost brakes (random brakes when the vehicle uses FSD), and even more, the standard AutoPilot has nearly a thousand random brakes at the moment. The reason behind it is precisely its Internet thinking to build cars, low re-inspection/spot checks, and bold style, and every time it is hard to harden the regulator's demand for its strengthened security verification.
You know, in 2025, Volkswagen's lidar model has been determined, China's new forces are expected to be standard, Xiaomi cars will be equipped, Huawei will be equipped, and its opponents will be equipped. And at that time, does it dare to continue to be bold and rigid?
Price change is a topic of market competition. Tesla, with its direct sales model, quickly played its own prestige in the automotive market, and the price of the vehicle fell significantly compared with when it was first launched, allowing consumers to have a new understanding. But it should be noted that the reason why Tesla's direct sales can play a prestige is that the market competition is not sufficient, it did not encounter the same level of opponents in the early stage, so only it can choose, so it can change at will.
However, the status quo has changed dramatically from that time. The direct sales model has not only become a standard item in the new forces, but also begun to be realized in the development process of traditional car companies. Different from Tesla's direct sales, China's new forces choose to face / to have goodwill, not to harm the interests of old car owners, through more reasonable advance planning, and even choose to pay out of pocket to ensure the original intention of direct sales.
In addition to the new forces, traditional car companies have also found a new way to deal with direct sales at present, that is, to maintain the stability of their terminal prices and not let them ride the roller coaster through reasonable regulation. In addition, traditional car companies are also achieving their own direct sales, but it still takes time. It can be seen that from 2020 to 2022, the adjustment of new forces + traditional car companies is getting faster and faster, and Tesla's price change space is also subject to market competition and becoming smaller and smaller. So, what about 2025?
As for the third point, Tesla's attitude towards China and overseas is different at the bottom, which is a harder pain point. For the time being, we will not discuss the impact of Sino-US relations on Tesla's future, but only look at Tesla's core ideas.
The core idea is to sinicize the surface and make it deeply American. The underlying logic in the global consumer market is that to enter a certain market, it must be subject to relevant supervision, especially after domestic production, and further localization. At present, Tesla has used a large number of Hardware components from Chinese suppliers in the Chinese market, and the core hardware is its own, which is a reasonable normal operation. But, unlike traditional cars, its software is not regulated, or unregulated.
Given its status as a new thing, even in the United States, NTHSA often has no choice but to launch an investigation/force to accelerate OTA upgrades in the software field. In the Chinese market, the typical feature of software is that there is no deep penetration capability. There is no precision map (which cannot be obtained due to security in the short term), only the surface function of the App.
Looking back at the relevant performance of a series of car companies such as Weilai, Xiaopeng, Ideal, Mercedes-Benz, BMW, Volkswagen, Toyota, Honda, etc., the accuracy map is used to get the deep interface of the App ecology, such as being able to use voice to fast forward and rewind songs/videos by 10 seconds. We can clearly know that Tesla is not incompetent, it just doesn't want to.
If it wants to, it has to be fully screened by software systems, and it has to be deeply regulated. Coupled with the continuous reduction of allocations and other operations in the Chinese market, it is clear that it regards the current Chinese market more as an important market for production/sales/profit sources, rather than a market that it should really land in depth and base itself on.
Write at the end:
So in summary, Tesla's future obviously needs to make more efforts, change its own style of doing things, and even consider its own attitude. Because, until these underlying attitudes are changed, the restrictions on access to sensitive areas/institutions will not be broken.
With the development and appearance of more and more advanced car companies, the situation that can only choose Tesla will gradually break.
As for, why 2025?
Because at that time, the Electronic and Electrical Architecture Capability was slightly higher than tesla E/E Xiaopeng X-EEA3.0 has been installed for 3 years, at that time, Weilai's NT2.0 has completed the replacement of the whole series, and because at that time, a new round of technical attacks from traditional car companies landed, such as the new flagship model of Volkswagen Group in 2024, and the corresponding plan proposed by Mercedes-Benz BMW. And the solid-state batteries that Toyota, Honda, and Hyundai Kia are pushing.
Moreover, there is the rise of a series of Chinese car companies. Geely + Meizu mobile phone + low orbit satellite, Great Wall + Huawei, BYD + Baidu.
So, what is impossible to fall off the altar of sales?