Although Tesla has become a member of the trillion-dollar market value club, Tesla's sales are still far behind compared to traditional car giants. However, if you are optimistic, in terms of sales, Tesla's 100-year-old Ford and GM sum only takes 5 years!
For investors, it's a thought-provoking idea — and a bit shocking.
It doesn't seem reasonable or should that two century-old automakers with hundreds of billions of sales to be replaced by a startup founded less than 20 years ago.
However, in terms of market capitalization, Tesla's market capitalization is about $900 billion, which is about six times the total market capitalization of General Motors and Ford.
Electric cars win
The market has declared a victory in the automotive industry's transition to electric vehicles. Still, the math behind this market share shift and growth is worth thinking about.
Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas wrote in a note released Thursday: "Most of the auto investors we spoke to remain skeptical about the idea that Tesla might be bigger than General Motors or Ford. ”
But Jonas didn't find the idea outrageous at all. In fact, he believes that by 2027, Tesla will surpass GM and Ford.
Tesla is faster than them when it comes to "growth rates."
How about now
tesla
Tesla delivered about 940,000 vehicles in 2021, achieving a new record of more than 1.22 million vehicles in the fourth quarter.
Total full-year revenue of $53,823 million and profit of $5.5 billion; Among them, the total revenue in the fourth quarter was 17.719 billion US dollars, the automobile business revenue reached 15.967 billion US dollars, an increase of 71% year-on-year, an increase of 32.4% sequentially, and the gross profit was 4.882 billion US dollars.
ford
For the full year 2021, Ford Motor Co.'s total revenue was $136.3 billion, up 7% year-over-year; vehicle sales were 3.942 million units, down 6% year-over-year; and net income was $17.9 billion, a turnaround.
Adjusted EBITDA was $10 billion, both of which increased year-over-year. In the fourth quarter of 2021, Ford Motor's revenue was $37.7 billion, net income was $12.3 billion, and adjusted EBITDA was $2 billion, all higher than the same period in 2020.
general
Net profit attributable to common shareholders for the full fiscal year 2021 was $9,837 million, up 57.47% year-over-year, and operating income was $127,004 million, up 3.69% year-over-year. The company's net profit attributable to common shareholders in the fourth quarter was $1.696 billion, down 39.45% year-on-year, and operating income was $33.584 billion, down 10.49% year-on-year.
Tesla's full-year revenue is only one-fifth of foreshadow and GM's combined revenue.
Jonas calculated that Tesla accounted for 4% of U.S. sales in January. Tesla's share by sales is about 3.5%. Tesla's cars are more expensive than regular cars.
Although Tesla is still the champion of the electric vehicle industry, its advantages are gradually weakening as more companies enter the electric vehicle field.
Tesla's sales will reach $300 billion over the next five years
By the end of 2026, Jonas expects Tesla to have a 10% share of the U.S. market. His estimates for GM and Ford's share are about 14 percent and 11 percent, respectively.
In summary, Jonas expects Tesla's sales to be about $300 billion by the end of 2026. General Motors and Ford should each remain around $150 billion.
Jonas seems to have Tesla's pricing already as if it were going to win market share. Its sales may still lag behind GM and Ford, though Tesla has dwarfed other automakers in terms of market capitalization.
Morgan Stanley expects Tesla's revenue to exceed that of General Motors and Ford combined in 2027.
Ford and GM's market share will decline, and in the long run, both companies will need to make major changes to their business models in order to gain a foothold in the electric vehicle market.