In the past 2021, Tesla has caused a lot of pressure on traditional car manufacturers in the field of electric vehicles, and it has made great progress in sales and revenue. Full-year deliveries of 936,000 units increased by 87% year-on-year, and full-year net profit was US$5.519 billion, up 665.46% year-on-year, setting a new record. However, in the view of Adam Jonas, a well-known analyst at Morgan Stanley, Tesla still has great potential for development in the future.
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Although the current traditional automakers, including Ford, General Motors, etc., have also accelerated the pace of electrification transformation, but in the analyst's view, their changes are not enough to maintain a sales lead for Tesla, and its prediction is that the market share of companies such as General Motors and Ford will decline in the next few years. Tesla's U.S. market share will grow to 18 percent, while General Motors will grow 12 percent by 2030 and Ford will grow 10 percent. Although GM's share is currently 14%, Ford's is 12.5%, and Tesla's is only 3.5%, Tesla's share continues to grow.
Morgan Stanley's forecast for Tesla sales
Jonas also predicts that Tesla's U.S. market share will reach 10 percent by 2026 or 2027. By then, GM's share is expected to fall to 14 percent or less, and then to 12 percent in 2030. By 2030, Ford's share is expected to decline further, just over 10 percent. While Tesla won't have more market share than Ford or GM by 2027, Jonas predicts that Tesla's total revenue will be greater than for Ford and GM combined, and this trend should become apparent over the next two years.