Text | Karakush
Yang and Qi sting also urge people to return to work.
How reluctant you are, the sting should be like this, and behind the revival of all things is always a certain happy separation. Whether you are still laughing and cursing the Chinese men's football team, whether you are in the youth pain of the 69 pieces of "Four Seas", whether you wake up from your mother's dumplings and the dream of your hometown, punch the clock, and clear the past.
Don't be sad, don't be anxious, what is happier than happiness is to look forward to happiness. The spring wind is ten miles, and it is not as good as the spring of everything. This is the most worthwhile moment of the year for some sloppiness and innocence, let's boldly imagine that the year of Nongyin is about to give the car market and you and me a great future.
You still have one last chance to catch up with Tesla
Tesla doesn't have a new car this year.
Of the countless promises Musk has poured into the world, this is perhaps the only one that will be delivered on time.
Tesla has too much to do, including but not limited to the more mature Self-Driving (FSD official push), Cybertrcuk, Roadster 2, Semitruck, Tesla Bot – seriously, this is what Lao Ma considers the most important product.
Tesla is trying to catch up with the bulls it has bragged about, and friends are getting the window to catch up with Tesla. In the past, its unbridled pace of innovation made the progress of latecomers like an ant locust, breaking through hopelessly; and for a whole year now, Tesla's main line will focus on expansion. The opportunity is only for this time, although the opportunity is still slim.
Last year, Tesla delivered 936,000 electric vehicles, and the terrible thing is not that it grew by 87%, the world's largest sales volume, but that the performance was based only on two models (mainly) and two factories. This year, the old plant will maximize production capacity, California and Shanghai have reached an annual production rate of 1.22 million by the end of last year, while the new plants in Texas and Berlin are also in the process of equipment commissioning, and production is expected.
Lao Ma said bluntly that there is no pressure to achieve 50% year-on-year delivery growth this year. Easy connotation has several meanings:
First, the scale ability has been verified, the factory can be built, the supply chain can keep up, and the growth rate is guaranteed;
Second, manufacturing innovation is on the margin of increasing the scale effect, the profit margin of its automobile business exceeds 30%, the price of bicycles exceeds 50,000 US dollars, and the cost is controlled at 36,000 US dollars, making electric vehicle manufacturing a fierce and profitable business;
Third, cost reduction brings price reduction, so that although the competition is fierce, it does not pose a threat;
Fourth, the cost of high-speed growth, such as quality control, is controlled within an acceptable range, and the willingness to consume (rather than the opinions of individual ashes) is strong, and it is not subject to recalls, rights protection, negativity, and wavering.
These are consolidating a new kind of fundamentals: In the past, technology was Tesla's core competency; now, scale is becoming its moat (no matter how much the old horse despises this concept).
We have a misconception that cars are "in the end" a business of scale manufacturing, as if they will be unified to a certain stage of development. No, from Tesla's point of view, industrial change goes far beyond power switching or software definition, subverting KPS/TPS's lean rule over scale manufacturing.
Scale will revolve around more efficient production methods, such as high automation, body-integrated die casting technology, or relying on OTAs to roll off the production line and then make up. The production itself has a competitive advantage over the product with a lasting output.
So until it perfects the system, this year may only be the weakest year in Tesla's days of getting bigger and stronger.
One More Thing
After several battles, Tesla's in-laws are expected to become the strongest fighting unit on the surface with a decisive decision comparable to Disney and Nintendo.
increase! increase! Must grow!
Mainland passenger car sales rose 6.5 percent year-on-year last year, ending a three-year decline since 2018.
The China Automobile Association predicts that passenger cars will increase by 8% year-on-year this year, and new energy vehicles will increase by 47% year-on-year to 5 million units. A number of mainstream automobile groups, including FAW, Dongfeng, GAC, Geely, Great Wall, Changan and other mainstream automobile groups, have also proposed an annual target growth rate of more than 15%.
The key is more about need than confidence and determination. There are at least two notable super high growth points:
One is the high-end model. Last year, 3.472 million units were sold, up 20.7% year-on-year, and the market share reached 16.2%. What do you mean? You have saved up ten friends to buy new cars, at least one of them is a local tycoon who buys luxury cars, and the gold content of friends and neighbors has reached a record high, and this wave of consumption upgrades seems to be very in line with the intuitive experience of the circle of friends.
The second is new energy. Last year, 3.521 million units were sold, an increase of 1.6 times year-on-year, and the market share reached 13.4%. The industry assessed that new energy consumption has shifted from policy-driven to market-driven, and some friends have begun to think that they want to take the initiative to buy electric vehicles. Only when new demand is opened can the deadlock in the stock market be changed and the potential can be released continuously.
There is also room for growth at the macro level, the ceiling of consumption is determined by income, last year, the per capita disposable income of residents in the country increased by 8.1% year-on-year, and per capita consumption expenditure increased by 12.6% over the previous year. Limited by the shortage of chips, the total consumption of automobiles increased by 7.6% year-on-year, which reduced the growth rate of total retail sales of social consumer goods.
Why should an ordinary person also care about whether others buy a car or not? Because consumption, investment, and exports are the "troika" that drives the economy, large-scale consumption, as a powerful gripper, can adjust the demand contraction pressure facing the current economic development; coupled with the introduction of electrification and intelligence within the industry, it can leverage various new growth points upstream.
Automobiles are high-quality indicators that reflect/affect economic expectations after housing is not speculated.
Magnificent China, although far away will be reached
Speaking of exports, it must be pointed out that last year, the mainland's automobile exports exceeded 2 million for the first time, very suddenly, and this figure has been hovering around 1 million in the past decade. The surge could be due to the following three preludes:
First of all, the epidemic prevention work is in place, and domestic production provides support for foreign trade. In fact, foreign trade imports and exports were supported as a whole last year, reaching 6 trillion US dollars, thanks to stability.
Second, thanks to the accumulation of investment, such as SAIC, Great Wall, Geely, etc. have built factories overseas to establish a support landing system.
The third is the product, which has been polished by several generations in the domestic market and finally received international recognition. For example, in terms of passenger cars, one is absolutely dominated by SUVs, and the other is the new energy outbreak reaching 310,000, an increase of 3 times year-on-year. Both are the strengths of independent enterprises, which have surpassed the joint ventures at the same level in terms of cost performance and comprehensive experience. In fact, last year, the market share of autonomous vehicles in the domestic market reached 44%, the highest since 2011, directly squeezing the share of joint ventures, including German and Japanese.
There will be no dramatic twists and turns in these factors. Some analysts believe that the biggest risk to China's exports is that with the popularization of vaccines, countries will restore production capacity and foreign trade orders will flow back to Southeast Asia.
Cars do not have such concerns, such as new energy, the world's best technology and industrial chain are concentrated in China, the generation gap is not so easy to be flattened, even Europe is also lagging behind China.
It is expected that the growth rate of mainland automobile exports will be higher than 20% this year.
A silicified fig leaf, a touchstone of iron
The consensus of the industry is that by the third quarter of this year, the chip problem that has plagued car companies for a long time will be alleviated.
Demand gave way to supply, resulting in a capacity utilization rate of 74.7% in the automobile manufacturing industry last year. According to the judgment of the Association, the loss caused by the lack of cores is estimated to be 1.5 million vehicles.
It's like a 250-pound fat man suddenly throwing away 150 pounds of fat, pain and happiness, explicit benefits include but not limited to the great clearance of inventory, retail price increases, discount rate recovery, brand value reset, sales are not righteous and stern...
The first half of the year is the last decent. Who swims naked to the low tide, deserves some humiliation, can not put on the bottom of the pants for a year, the problem must be heavy.
If a generation does not grow old, it will be too late
Since last year, the "new forces" have become unsatisfactory, and it specifically refers to independent retail households mainly supported by private capital around 2015, such as Wei Xiaoli, Weima, Nezha, Zero Run and so on. Compared with the new wave behind, they are already entrepreneurial elders.
According to Li Xiang, Wei Xiaoli has completed the rapid growth and verification from 0-1 in 2021, and each has eaten about 3% of the market share in its own market segment.
This year, we will enter a 1-10 phase, which will increase by 10-100 times in size, and will also face various competitions as we invade the territory of leaders and vested interests. Life and death depend on two points: first, maintain the advantage; second, make up for the shortcomings. Indispensable.
The "old man" who is entitled to die can also be counted as Nezha and Zero Run. Last month, Nezha delivered more than 11,000 vehicles, an increase of 402% year-on-year, and delivered more than 10,000 vehicles for three consecutive months, standing in line with Xiao Li's order; and zero-run deliveries also exceeded 8,000 vehicles, an increase of 434% year-on-year, a new monthly high.
This year is a node, and the elderly who do not come out again, the growth window in the relative vacuum state will gradually close, and this fashion cannot verify what long board, which may mean that there is no long board at all. And the competition that follows will be fiercer than ever.
Constantly someone is being young
In the past two years, at least three generations have emerged in the car industry:
A number of high-end projects backed by traditional car companies such as Zhiji, Salon, Avita, Extreme Krypton, and Lantu have been partially landed since last year and will be launched this year;
A group of Internet and technology companies, such as Xiaomi, Baidu, and Sony, have not yet had time to have specific followings;
There are also a group of unheard of friends: group car, the background is to do car group buying; light orange era, the background is to do games and finance; self-traveling, the background is a calf car, perhaps the most reliable of them. The list is even getting longer.
Yin and yang weirdness, not hard to bully the poor youth, but only two years from the first generation of cattle ghosts and snake gods poured out in batches, some operations and configurations are too kind.
Nowadays, the pomp and circumstance is not reduced, everyone says that the track is good, and it is always necessary to play once in the end, but no one should look at which endgame is the first shot. The endgame of investors and speculators is only until the time of their safe exit; the endgame of the industry has never had to be so crowded.
For whom does the death knell ring?
Don't ask, ask is for you. Veterans do not die, nor do they gradually wither away, they have various ways of leaving them to die and be reborn.
For example, Evergrande Automobile actually rolled off the production line in January, the first model Hengchi 5;
For example, the future of the car, at the end of last year' official announcement of the return, has been suspended for a year, and closed the Beijing Sanlitun store, the existing Shanghai Xintiandi store in the exhibition car has always been covered with a mask, and now there are new investments, planned new models;
Another example is Xinte Automobile, which quietly restarted last year, reorganized from Guizhou Xinte to Chongqing Xinte, and released a pure electric scooter. In addition to the brand unchanged, from investors to management changes, it is reported that the current CEO is the former head of marketing of Sailin Motors.
Vitality proves the enthusiasm of capital. The new forces in the waist, which were tight in financial conditions last year, now do not seem to lie directly flat in the short term.
Insurance managers are the next generation of talent to be scrambled
Electric vehicles that do not engage in insurance are not good car companies.
A few years ago, NIO Holdings spent 50 million yuan to set up an insurance company. They are not the first ones.
Tesla set up an insurance company in China in 2020; in the United States, it has launched a self-insurance service. Lao Ma has said that insurance will become one of Tesla's main products, and its value will account for 30%-40% of the value of the vehicle business. This year, they aim to achieve more than 80% of users with Tesla insurance by the end of the year.
The temptation of only two car companies is enough to pry the industry trend. The industry is very much looking forward to car companies to launch exclusive insurance products, especially last year, the new energy exclusive car insurance was launched, and many friends' premiums rose sharply, calling out meat pain. Based on the travel data of vehicles, car companies can change the premium from the traditional unified pricing to one car and one price, one person and one price, with smaller granularity and more targeted, and flexibly reduce the cost of car owners.
For most businesses, that means building new capabilities. Since the rise of electric vehicles, including direct operation, user operation, data operation, energy services and other model innovation, the car companies have put forward super-program challenges other than products, such as direct operation, not only to establish a new organization, but also to subvert the inherent cooperation model, and the opportunity cost of learning is very high.
Yet, as it stands, the best time for effective reform was a decade ago, and the second best time was now.
Power exchange is perhaps the most popular innovation for electric vehicles
A few years ago, the Ningde era changed electricity and unveiled the curtain on power replacement and energy replacement. Some friends have called it a transitional technology before arriving at high-voltage overcharge. There is a half chance that this assertion will roll over.
This year, it is becoming more and more clear that the new energy revolution of automobiles is more of a social acceptance of new things than a problem of human creativity. It has nothing to do with which technology is definitely more powerful and more advanced, in fact, it can be predicted that there must be different garbage in the early stage of landing, compared to the lack of gas stations at all.
It is only in terms of results that the difference is that some societies are hopelessly conservative and do not have the opportunity to gain simple abilities in long-term repair to self-catalyze; others, for whatever purpose, can quickly accept innovation, even if it does not meet any needs for a while, or even has any advantages. A hundred-year-old car is such a thing.
We continue to advocate the latter because only then is there a possibility of development. This is also the fundamental reason why China's electrification has achieved leading positions.