From the perspective of calendar years, the Spring Festival is the peak season for automobile sales. Around the Spring Festival in 2022, affected by the subsidy rebate for new energy vehicles, many car companies have increased the sales price of new energy vehicles. On the occasion of the Spring Festival holiday, the Securities Times reporter visited some new energy vehicle sales stores such as Xiaopeng, Weilai and BYD in Guangdong to understand the sales of new energy vehicles after some car companies retired.
Before the holiday, the sales of new energy vehicles ushered in a small boom
"Affected by the date of the refund policy, there are still some people who want to drive the New Year before the Spring Festival, and new energy vehicles usher in a wave of sales boom, and our orders are not bad." A salesman of a new energy vehicle told reporters that the Spring Festival has always been the peak season for automobile sales, driven by the price increase policy before and after the Spring Festival, many consumers have ordered orders in advance.
"This year's subsidies for new energy vehicles have shrunk, and if subsidies are cancelled or continue to be reduced next year, prices will continue to rise, you can place orders early, buy early and enjoy early." The sale was recommended to journalists. The reporter visited and saw that the Spring Festival was approaching, and there were consumers in the crowded shopping malls to inquire about the model.
Xiaopeng Automobile sales staff said that Xiaopeng P5 can be delivered 2-3 months after signing the contract. The reporter learned from different consumers that or the limited production capacity and sales have risen sharply, and some P5 car owners have waited for 4 months without mentioning the car. BYD's hot-selling model Qin Plus dmi is also difficult to find, and many consumers need to wait 4-5 months to pick up the car.
On the eve of the Spring Festival, Xiaopeng, Weilai, Ideal and other new car-making forces have also handed over last year's sales "answer sheet", and the sales ranking of new car-making forces in 2021 has also been released. According to the data, Xiaopeng won the sales championship among the new car-making forces with 98155 units, followed by Ideal and Weilai. In 2021, NIO delivered a total of 91,429 vehicles, an increase of 109.1% year-on-year; ideal ONE delivered a total of 90,491 vehicles, an increase of 177.4% over 2020.
BYD announced on the evening of February 3 on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange that the sales volume of new energy vehicles in January was 93,168, compared with 20,178 units in the same period last year, an increase of 361.73% year-on-year.
According to data from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, in 2021, the sales of new energy vehicles in mainland China reached 3.521 million units, an increase of 1.6 times year-on-year, ranking first in the world for seven consecutive years; the market for new passenger cars equipped with combined driving assistance systems accounted for 20%.
For the sales boom of new energy vehicles before the Spring Festival, some insiders told reporters that benefiting from the development of battery technology and intelligent car machine systems, new energy vehicles have become the first choice for many people to buy cars, and the recent refund policy is one of the influencing factors that drive consumers to place orders in advance, and the proportion of future sales will continue to increase. On the one hand, the new energy sales boom mainly appears in southern cities such as Shenzhen, Guangzhou, etc., and the weather in northern cities is cold, and new energy vehicles are discounted, and many people are still willing to choose fuel vehicles. On the other hand, the sales of new energy vehicles are concentrated in leading new energy companies such as Tesla, Xiaopeng and Weilai, and this trend will become more obvious as new players such as Huawei, Baidu, and Xiaomi enter the market.
Affected by the refund policy, many car companies have increased the price of automobiles
In April 2020, the Ministry of Finance and other four ministries and commissions jointly issued the "Notice on Improving the Financial Subsidy Policy for the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles", which stipulates that in principle, new energy subsidies will decline by 10%, 20% and 30% respectively from 2020 to 2022 on the basis of the previous year.
It is reported that according to the latest subsidy plan, from January 1, 2022, the subsidy for pure electric vehicle models with a cruising range of 300 km (inclusive) to 400 km is 0.91 million yuan, a decrease of 3900 yuan compared with 2021; the subsidy for pure electric vehicle models with a cruising range greater than or equal to 400 km is 12,600 yuan, a decrease of 5,400 yuan compared with 2021; in addition, the subsidy for plug-in hybrid models is 0.48 million yuan, a decrease of 2,000 yuan compared with before.
On January 21 this year, BYD officially announced that the official guidance price of its dynasty network and ocean network related new energy models will be adjusted, ranging from 1,000 to 7,000 yuan, and the price adjustment will take effect on February 1. According to BYD, the price was mainly affected by the sharp rise in raw material prices and the decline in subsidies for new energy car purchases.
The reporter visited and learned that a number of car companies have raised the price of new energy vehicles:
Tesla's domestic Model 3 and Model Y rear-wheel drive versions are priced at 265,700 yuan and 301,800 yuan respectively, up 10,000 yuan and 21,000 yuan, respectively;
Xiaopeng P5's latest subsidized after-sales price is 162,700-22.93 million yuan, compared with before, the price is up 4800 yuan to 5400 yuan;
Nezha Automobile's U part of the model increased by 3000-5000 yuan, and the Nezha V part of the model increased by 2000 yuan;
GAC AE LX rose by 4,000 yuan, and the listed new AION S Plus increased by more than 7,000 yuan compared with the 2021 model.
How big is the impact of the withdrawal? A number of securities companies are optimistic about the new energy automobile industry in 2022
Regarding the impact of subsidy decline on the development of the new energy automobile industry, Yingda Securities believes that the new energy vehicle market has shifted from policy-driven to market-driven, and the impact of subsidy decline on the overall market growth of new energy vehicles is limited. The policy gives car companies and consumers a clear signal, clarifies the subsidy standards and subsidy withdrawal time in 2022, and the industry has long expected the decline of new energy subsidies, so the further decline of subsidies will not have a greater impact on the sales of new energy vehicles.
The research report also pointed out that according to the data of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the total sales volume of China's automobiles in 2021 was 26.275 million units, an increase of 3.8% year-on-year; Sales of new energy vehicles totaled 3.521 million units, up 1.59 times year-on-year. New energy vehicles have achieved a substitution effect on the fuel vehicle market and accelerated the pace of transformation to new energy vehicles. The "New Energy Vehicle Industry Development Plan" expects that the proportion of new energy vehicles will reach 20% by 2025.
Yingda Securities expects that the annual sales of new energy vehicles will reach 5.5 million in 2022, and by 2025, the proportion of new energy vehicles will far exceed the 20% predicted in the plan to reach 30%, the annual sales of automobiles will be 30 million, and the annual sales of new energy vehicles will exceed 9 million.
Everbright Securities pointed out that it continues to be optimistic about the release prospects of new energy vehicle demand (especially high-end pure electric models, as well as plug-in hybrid models sales climbing trend), it is expected that car companies are expected to hedge policy fluctuations through retained orders, as well as time-limited price insulation, etc., and it is expected that production capacity, supply chain, and logistics are still the leading factors in sales climbing. It is expected that in 2022, the domestic new energy passenger car will be 5 million to 5.5 million, which is optimistic about the product cycle of strong models (chip supply mitigation has strong sales and profit elasticity), as well as the continuous increase in new energy penetration / intelligent electrification promotion path Clear and clear car companies.
Huaxin Securities pointed out that after experiencing the impact of the epidemic and the inflection point of the industry in 2020, new energy vehicles have ushered in a period of high prosperity for more than 5 years, and the next two years will still be in a period of rapid growth. Looking ahead, the new energy automobile industry will continue to rise, but the growth rate will slow down moderately after 2023. It is worth noting that the rapid growth in energy storage and other fields will bring an effective premium to the slowed lithium battery industry chain, and the valuation can continue to remain at a high level. According to the analysis of Huaxi Securities Research Report, the global new energy automobile industry as a whole presents the dual characteristics of "electric acceleration + intelligent opening", the trillion-level market is opened, traditional car companies are actively transforming, and new car-making forces and technology Internet companies (Huawei, Baidu, Xiaomi, DJI, etc.) have accelerated their entry into the market to promote the prosperity and development of the industry.
Editor: Ye Shujun
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