author
Cui Liwen
"Opportunities are fleeting, you have to fight with every drop of your sweat, you must firmly believe that you will get more, and fate will yield to your unremitting efforts." 」
Responsible editor 丨 Cui Liwen
Edit 丨 Chic
A few days ago, after receiving the task of writing the year-end inventory of Weilai Automobile, for some reason, a sentence came up in my mind more and more intensely.
"Dancing in shackles."
Can dancers with cold shackles on their feet dance? Can this dancer fully display his most beautiful dance posture? Can such an effort be recognized by the audience?
Immediately, one question after another, followed.
But calm down and think, in fact, as long as you work hard enough, the cognition and planning are clearer, and the existence of "shackles" will not only not affect the dancer's elegant dance steps, but will make a dancer's dance posture more charming.
In the course of the usual arduous practice, the "shackles" make her basic skills solid, undistracted, dancing intently, dancing with emotion, and constantly jumping and rotating towards the goal in her heart.
Similarly, in the past year, even though it is still encountering many doubts, Weilai has proved itself to be a good enough "dancer" with practical actions and final results. Especially after experiencing the darkest stage of dying and unforgettable in 2019, the bloom after that has become more and more precious.
Inevitably, as the "lead dancer", Li Bin, the wrinkles on his face and the white hair on his head, are rising at a speed visible to the naked eye. Thankfully, the new force, which has just celebrated its seventh birthday, has gradually learned to grow up alone.
"For a long time, we were actually punched to the ground with one punch to the left and one punch to the right, and then we got up again, and we were beaten to the ground, and we got up again, but we still stood."
Although it is slightly old-fashioned, this is the most appropriate description of Weilai's current situation. And this year, the difficulties and challenges are clearly there, and if you want to dance higher, you still need to find the key to open the "shackles".
Otherwise, it is still possible to fall off the stage...
01
Frustration and relief
"In the end, as expected, Weilai still failed to successfully hit the 100,000 delivery mark, and was overtaken by Xiaopeng in the end."
Entering the New Year, NIO announced the 2021 delivery results. A total of 10,489 new vehicles were delivered in December, an increase of 49.7% year-on-year; a total of 25,034 new vehicles were delivered in the fourth quarter, an increase of 44.3% year-on-year, achieving positive growth for seven consecutive quarters; and 91,429 new vehicles were delivered in 2021, an increase of 109.1% year-on-year, doubling for two consecutive years. Since the establishment of the brand, NIO has delivered a total of 167,070 new vehicles.
But even so, missing out on the new forces to sell the crown has become a fact that cannot be hidden.
In the second half of last year, due to unfavorable factors such as the epidemic, supply chain shortages and factory production line transformation, Weilai's single-month performance has seen several "crashes", thus explaining the sentence at the beginning of this paragraph. The weaker ability to resist risks is also its own large shortcomings.
In the interview session after the end of 2021 NIO Day, Li Bin also admitted that compared with the explosive growth shown by the new energy market, in fact, Weilai failed to lead the "broader market".
"This year, because of the product, we did not outperform the market too much, although the increase also reached 100%, the next challenge is still quite large."
In contrast, from the data of the Association of Passenger Vehicles, the wholesale of new energy passenger vehicles from January to December was 3.312 million units, an increase of 181.0% year-on-year.
Obviously, with the final result, the emotion of loss must exist. But it still needs to be explained that even so, if you want to score Weilai in 2021, in my heart, you can still get an "85 points" score.
Especially when Xiaopeng and Ideal, as "friendly businessmen", have been promoting new products, Weilai holds three more homogeneous "old cars" ES8, ES6 and EC6, and still delivers more than 90,000 new cars. The chaos that had predicted the left-right hand-to-hand combat between them did not appear.
On the contrary, it forms a complementarity at the level of the model matrix. For a long time in the past, skeptics have always criticized that Weilai lacks a "blockbuster" similar to Xiaopeng P7 and the ideal ONE, but the real situation is that the sum of the three SUVs of ES8, ES6 and EC6 is the offensive it presents by relying on existing resources.
What is more gratifying is that behind the good results, it is more and more reflective of the end user's recognition of its brand level. Looking back at the development of China's automotive industry in the past few decades, no one in the independent brand can touch the dual goals of the average price of products exceeding 400,000 yuan and selling 100,000 vehicles at the same time.
In December 2021, the average transaction price of NIO's three models on sale stabilized at more than 440,000 yuan, reaching 443,500 yuan. Among them, the average transaction price of ES8 exceeded 536,700 yuan, a record high. The average selling price of 443,500 yuan is second only to Mercedes-Benz compared with BBA.
At this point, Weilai has undoubtedly firmly established the "human design" of high-end and luxury new energy vehicle companies. And this is precisely what other friends and businessmen envy.
"Even if 10,000 people complain about the new power's expensive price, there are still a thousand people who willingly pay for it."
More often, I have to admire Li Bin's ability to shape the brand. The aura of Weilai's own existence is also continuing to add points to its product-level expansion.
02
700 seats with ET5
"The brand has been established for 7 years, and NIO always has to learn to grow up on its own."
At this moment, I still clearly remember that after witnessing the entire event of 2021 NIO Day, I wrote such a sentence in the memo on my mobile phone when I left.
The reason is very simple, taking the timeline as a measurement dimension, if we say 2017 NIO Day, when the ES8 slowly drove to the center of the stage, Weilai told us for the first time what it wanted to do.
2018 NIO Day, compared with the ES8 positioning lower ES6 to the front of the stage, more people-friendly but still high-end positioning, indicating that after its listing, it will become the temporary "main sales responsibility" of Weilai.
2019 NIO Day, unexpectedly, the darkest hour will come so quickly that even survival becomes precarious and crumbling. Fortunately, in the end, Weilai survived.
Even if the emergence of EC6 is more like a helpless compromise, it still maintains the tradition of this new force to build cars once a year. At the scene, in the face of more than 10,000 users shouting in unison to cheer, Li Bin bowed deeply to them. That moment is the most moving moment.
2020 NIO Day, when the resources in WEIlai's hands are more and more abundant, everything is slowly returning to the established track. The release of ET7 a year late officially opened the pure electric car strategy and regained the label of "leader" in the industry.
Seven years, along the way, experienced insults, questioning, counterattacks, praise, from swaddling babies, to toddlers, to small steps and fast running, in the whole process, you can clearly feel the existence of progress and transformation.
2021 has passed, if you want to ask Weilai what exactly is doing right? I would not hesitate to vote for "700 seats and ET5".
From the perspective of splitting, once because of the constraints of the capital level, the construction of the most important ring replacement power station in the NIO Power replenishment system of Weilai has helplessly stagnated.
What is even more fatal is that with the rapid expansion of the base of car owners, the decline of the experience end has begun to become more and more intense. Open the official app and you can easily see the existence of complaints. And this undoubtedly hit Li Bin in the face, because he mentioned more than once, "Being good to users is a means, not an end." ”
It is precisely because of this that at the beginning of last year, when Qin Lihong, president of Weilai, said, "By the end of the year, the total number of substations will reach 500." "The outside world, the mood of doubt, occupies a large proportion. At that time, there was still a period of time before the real "landing" of the second generation of replacement power stations, and the existing number of replacement power stations was only less than 200.
However, with the announcement of Weilai in April this year to officially "hand in hand" Sinopec, the first second-generation replacement power station was officially completed, and the plot of the story ushered in a new development, and this new force completely incarnated into an "infrastructure demon" and began a stage of crazy expansion. Because it knows that, in a way, changing power is the "lifeblood".
At the end of July, the third anniversary of NIO Power, Qin Lihong once again made a leapfrog update to the goals promised at the beginning of the year, and the total number of replacement power stations was increased from 500 to more than 700. From 2022 to 2025, 600 new substations will be added to the Chinese market every year.
Finally, on December 10, 2021, Beijing time, WEILAI's 700th substation was officially launched, completing the target 20 days ahead of schedule. Since the first second-generation substation was launched on April 15, a total of 500 substations have been put on line in 239 days. The housing coverage rate in the electricity district increased from 20.3% at the beginning of the year to 42.9%.
Obviously, data doesn't lie. After smashing a lot of manpower, material resources and financial resources, Weilai finally expanded the density of the substation to the extent that it matched the base of car owners.
"In the future, no matter what Weilai does, as long as it is a smart electric vehicle, it must be replaced, not replaced, not Weilai."
Although for NIO Power, there are still many things that have not yet been proven, such as when will it be self-financing? When will it be truly open? Is there a technical bottleneck? But in the end, it is impossible to stop Weilai's determination to go to the end after identifying this technical path.
Just a day before the release of this article, ningde era, as a power battery giant, announced that it officially cut into the power exchange plate and began to divide the "cake". Thinking from weilai's point of view, it may be a news that the advantages outweigh the disadvantages. After all, the base plate needs to be made big together by the strong, and it always seems too small to rely on itself.
As for the second point that deserves praise, it is the second pure electric sedan released after ET7 on 2021 NIO Day, the ET5.
The reason is simpler, with the passage of time, THERE is no reason why Weilai can no longer create a product that can break through 10,000 monthly sales to support its unique but questionable business model.
The intelligent configuration is exactly the same as et7, and the overall parameters are slightly "shrunk". The starting price of 75-degree battery packs before subsidies is 328,000 yuan, and the price before 100-degree battery packs is 386,000 yuan, respectively, after the use of BaaS vehicle-electric separation scheme, the starting price before subsidies is lowered to 258,000 yuan.
When the specific information of ET5 was released, the biggest feeling brought to the outside world was that Li Bin personally had put down his "obsession" with the excessive pursuit of brand high-end, and then showed a strong willingness to create a "blockbuster".
"Definitely the car we've issued the most orders ever. For Weilai, everyone understands that we do not send specific numbers. But what can be said, including starting with the ES8, is the one with the largest order volume of new cars released by NIO Day in the past five years. ”
To be honest, when I heard such news from Li Bin during the interview, I was not so surprised. On the contrary, if THE ET5 does not reach the imaginary heat after its debut and harvests enough convincing orders, it will be the biggest failure at the top-level strategic level of Weilai.
If you want to wear a crown, you will bear its weight. Since it has become the vane of the entire new energy industry, it must have more arguments to justify itself.
03
Hold and break through
"In my opinion, building a car is not a marathon – it's a race with no end in sight. If you only say that you have succeeded by leading others by half a position when you start three or five kilometers, then I think it must be a brain burned out, at least inside xiaopeng motors, no one is so optimistic. 2022 will be more difficult, and I think only by gritting my teeth can I become the champion of one of them..."
In fact, just before this year-end inventory operation, the article titled "Xiaopeng, not yet a win" has just been issued, and the above comment comes from its vice president Li Pengcheng. At this moment, it is by no means alarmist, entering the new 2022, the "shackles" that Weilai needs to break free of are also only increasing.
First, hit higher sales targets.
To be fair, missing out on the crown in 2021 and losing the market is an indisputable fact that must be faced. At this moment, standing at a new starting point and pushing a new plan according to the products known to Weilai, we may wish to make an ideal expectation for its annual delivery number.
At present, the three models on sale, the ES8, ES6 and EC6, contributed 91,429 units to them last year. Taking into account the actual situation, the company will base it on 100,000 units after a slight increase. On NIO Day 2021, according to Li Bin, the delivery time of the first pure electric sedan ET7 was set for March 28, Beijing time.
With a monthly sales of 3,000 units, perhaps a more qualified performance of this flagship product, cumulative deliveries counted as 30,000 units from April to December.
As soon as the booking is opened, it is destined to become a "blockbuster" ET5, and the earliest delivery time is September this year, according to the consistent tone of Weilai, the rate is probably the end of the month.
Starting from October, the contribution will be calculated, and taking into account factors such as capacity climbing, the monthly delivery volume of a single model in the last quarter will exceed 10,000, and the total contribution will also be 30,000 units.
As for the ES7, if deliveries can begin in July, the monthly performance will remain around 5,000 units, and the final contribution will reach 25,000 units. In summary, NIO's delivery volume in 2022 is expected to touch 180,000-200,000 vehicles.
But it must be noted that in this process, we have ignored the biggest variable - capacity.
The unfavorable news of lack of cores, the epidemic and even the rising price of raw materials for power batteries is still coming. Before the NeoPark Xinqiao base is officially put into operation in September next year, the only factory at present, JAC Weilai Base, will undertake the manufacturing task of ES8, ES6, EC6, et7 four models, and the pressure can be imagined.
Therefore, only from the first half of this year, whether Weilai can achieve the expected delivery performance has been marked with a big question mark.
Moreover, as mentioned in the subheading of this paragraph, this year's Beijing Auto Show, when the ES7 with obviously stronger comprehensive strength arrives, how can the three SUVs that have not yet been upgraded and upgraded maintain the original single-month contribution of about 10,000 vehicles?
Will the emergence of ET5 weaken the volume of terminal orders accumulated by ET7 in the early stage? As of the end of the year, there are 6 models on sale at the same time, how to resolve the internal friction between each other? After losing the new forces and selling the crown, how to regain glory from Xiao Peng's hands? Multi-dimensional, all test Weilai's ability to break through.
Secondly, the intelligent plate urgently needs to be corrected.
For a long time in the past, only from the real experience of intelligent cockpit and assisted driving, Weilai's performance in some aspects was inferior to That of Xiaopeng and Tesla, which is an indisputable fact. The complaint from the user is obviously the whip that hit the entire R&D team of Weilai. To be sure, 2022 Weilai urgently needs a "turnaround battle" to justify itself in the intelligent plate.
Fortunately, as a bystander, we have been able to see that after overcoming many difficulties, for the three models on sale, ES8, ES6 and EC6, Weilai plans to launch a paid upgrade of the Snapdragon 8155 car machine chip.
With the blessing of the NT2.0 platform, the NAD automatic driving assistance system, together with the supersensitive system Aquila and the supercomputing platform Adam, has become the standard of ET7, ET5, including ES7.
With 33 high-performance perception hardware, the final force has reached 1016 TOPS, 4 NVIDIA Orin chips, and 19 auxiliary driving functions are equipped as standard, and the follow-up gradually realizes point-to-point automatic driving in scenarios such as high-speed, urban area, parking, and power exchange.
With only the current terminal feedback, the expectation value is undoubtedly full. But new problems also emerge, and the higher the early stage is praised, the requirements for the final landing of all functions are multiplied. In the follow-up, once it is not as expected, Weilai will inevitably suffer greater doubts. Therefore, this battle cannot be lost.
Moreover, it is a "user enterprise".
As written in the article "Weilai, "Sick" again": as a user company, it is deeply bound to car owners and unconditionally meets the requirements they put forward, which indeed brings Weilai the most reliable brand loyalty and stickiness in the industry.
However, with the increasingly large base, "chaos" inevitably emerges, and even the antagonism and camp differentiation between new and old car owners.
The basic framework of "user enterprise" built in seven years, regardless of whether there is a flaw, the next thing that needs to be well considered is how to grasp the "degree" between the car company and the owner, not too strange, not too out of bounds, and maintain a relatively healthy mode of getting along. Otherwise, the anti-phagocytosis effect may come sooner than imagined.
At the same time, since it has been regarded as a benchmark by the entire industry, with the increasingly large number of car owners, how to ensure that the entire service system can continue to operate with quality and quantity is also one of the challenges that must be faced. After all, Li Bin only has one, and even if he tries his best, he will not be able to do everything.
"Li Bin and my main job at the moment is to let Weilai have 10,000 Li Bin in the entire service team after 5 years." Rather than rigid rules and regulations, we want to be values-oriented. ”
At the end of last year, at a communication meeting held, Qin Lihong actually gave the answer to this question. In his eyes, when most people in the service system share a common belief, many problems will be solved.
The next key will be how to pass on the sense of mission and culture within the company. Otherwise, it will gradually become a "user enterprise" with an empty table.
Finally, keep the volume and freshness.
To be sure, if the timeline is stretched, Niolai's ambitions do not stop there. As an argument, in May this year, the trademarks of NIO ET9, NIO EE5, NIO ES9, NIO ET6, and NIO EC6 have been able to prove many things, even if these "symbols" will not all land after that, they can still bring huge heat to this new force.
In addition, it is the expansion of NIO's overseas territory. After Norway, 2022 will enter Germany, the Netherlands, Sweden, Denmark four countries, has been determined. In 2025, it will enter more than 25 countries and regions. Judging from the recent news, in order to enter the North American market, Tesla's "base camp", the corresponding preparations are also underway.
Regardless of the above measures, how much "quantitative change" can eventually be brought about, only from the perspective of strategic significance, WEILAI needs such means to maintain the brand volume and freshness. Therefore, how to do it, how to do it well, whether it will take care of one or the other, a new question is waiting to be answered.
At the end of the article, I still want to say that from a perceptual point of view, it is definitely lucky enough to witness the whole process of Weilai falling from the peak to the bottom and rushing to the top of the mountain again. In it, I felt the toughness that stood out enough. Li Bin's sobriety, self-knowledge and persistence are extremely precious in this chaotic and extremely easy to follow the tide.
From a rational point of view, the past 2021, dancing with "shackles" is the most appropriate description of Weilai. Some achievements must be recognized; in some places, they are not done perfectly. In 2022, which has arrived, finding the key to open the "shackles" will determine the final dance amplitude.
As for the results, time will give the answer...
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