(Report Producer/Author: Changjiang Securities, Gordon, Chen Sizhu)
1 How do you view the potential space for sales of new car-making forces?
Weilai, Ideal and Xiaopeng take SUVs as the entry point and gradually lay out in six major market segments. Since the release of the ES8 in 2018, new car-making forces have begun to launch their representative models in different segments. Through combing, it can be found that the three mainly target six markets: medium and large SUVs, medium and large cars, medium SUV, medium sedan, compact SUV, compact sedan, and the market space gradually increases with the level from large to small and the price from high to the end. In common, the first cars of the three are SUV models, mainly because SUVs meet the characteristics of the Chinese market in pursuit of large space, high practicality and strong power.
At present, Xiaopeng has the highest monthly sales and weilai has the lowest. From the perspective of sales scale, Xiaopeng's monthly sales have reached about 16,000 vehicles, and the ideal is also about 14,000 vehicles, but Weilai's highest is only about 10,000 vehicles, why is there a difference in sales? How do you view the subsequent sales development of the three? This report will analyze the competitiveness of products from the comparison of its released models with its competitors, and finally will sort out the upcoming models and look forward to future sales.
2 Models listed: Ideal has outstanding performance in the competition, and Weilai and Xiaopeng have room for improvement
Weilai: Positioning the high-end market space is small, gradually sinking to open the market
NIO ES8: Consumers of high-end models are more concerned about mileage
The ES8 is a medium-sized pure electric SUV priced at 468,000-624,000, with a length of more than 5 meters and a wheelbase of more than 3 meters, belonging to the C-class SUV, available in six- and seven-seat versions, and belonging to the luxury brand level in price. Competitive product selection strategy: Size dimension, we select BMW X5 (import), Cadillac XT6 and Tourone with similar size; price dimension, in terms of specific model styles, try to choose specific models with similar prices; market dimension, because WEILAI ES8 is a pure electric new model, so choose Model X, Ideal One, Audi e-tron, Mercedes-Benz EQC as a comparison. We will compare the differences between the NIO ES8 and its competitors in terms of space, price, power performance and configuration, and find out the reasons for the position of its sales in similar products.
From the sales level, the ES8 is lower than gasoline and hybrid competitors, and higher than pure e-sports competitors. 1) In the medium and large SUV market of more than 400,000, gasoline and hybrid competitors sold more than 3,000 units. The BMW X5 still sells 4,247 units per month despite price points and imports; the ideal One at 7,541 units; the Cadillac XT6 at 3,167 units; and in 2021, due to the lack of cores, the highest annual sales average in Touron's history (2018), with an average monthly sales of 7,182 units, is the best level in the market.
2) Due to the large size of the model, the pure electric mileage of similar models is short, and the problem of consumer mileage anxiety is not completely solved, so the overall performance of pure electric vehicle models in the market is not good, such as Model X (imported), Audi e-tron, Mercedes-Benz EQC, and the average monthly sales of the three stable states are only the last 531, 130 and 508 vehicles. 3) The ES8 has been sold steadily in 2021 due to its launch in 2018, with an average monthly sales of 1,745 vehicles, which is lower than gasoline and hybrid competitors and better than pure electric competitors. Therefore, the sales characteristics of this market are that the price is high, the sales volume is low, consumers are more concerned about the mileage, and the sales of electric vehicles are not on the same order of magnitude as fuel vehicles and hybrids.
To sum up, the large size and high performance did not give the Weilai ES8 an advantage, mainly because as a large luxury SUV positioning for home, the mileage is a more important consideration for consumers, and the standard function is not as good as the level of the new car-making force Ideal One, the latter price is also more advantageous, so the sales are lower. ES8 and competitor advantages and disadvantages analysis: 1) Size: length, width and height Although the ES8 is not dominant, its wheelbase is the longest of the competitors, reaching 3010mm. 2) In terms of dynamic performance, NIO's dual motors also make its maximum power and maximum torque the highest among competitors (except for the million-level Model X), and the acceleration of 100 kilometers is only 4.9 seconds. 3) Other configurations: From the perspective of other configurations, Weilai ES8 has fewer standard functions, the ideal One, Tuon and Cadillac XT6, Mercedes-Benz EQC standard features more, BMW standard features the least, basically need to add money to choose. 4) The reasons for affecting sales: The only difference is that the low sales of ES8, Etron, EQC for pure electric vehicles, the mileage is basically 400-500KM, the winter power loss is faster, can not fully meet the needs of consumers for mileage.
NIO ES6: large size, strong power, good performance in electric vehicles
The ES6 is positioned as a medium-sized pure electric SUV, priced at 358,000-526,000 (official guidance price), its length is 4.85 meters, the wheelbase is 2.9 meters, it belongs to the B-class SUV, and it belongs to the mid-to-high-end level in terms of price. Competitive product selection strategy: size dimension, we select Mercedes-Benz GLC, BMW X3, and Mocha DHT-PHEV with similar size; price dimension, in the specific model style, try to choose specific models with similar prices; market dimension, because WEILAI ES6 is a pure electric model, so choose tesla model Y, BMW iX3 and Mercedes-Benz EQC with similar size and price as a comparison.
From the perspective of sales level, ES6 is at the upper middle level in the competition, especially pure electric. 1) Medium-sized SUVs in the price band of more than 300,000, with BBA forming a major market, although the pricing is around 400,000 (dealer reference price is more than 300,000), Mercedes-Benz GLC and BMW X3 sales reached 11671, 10743 units, respectively, are more than 10,000. 2) In terms of pure electric, bmw iX3 and Mercedes-Benz EQC monthly sales were 3687 and 508 units, respectively, which were relatively low. The monthly sales of model Y are much higher than similar models, and also higher than the same level of fuel vehicles, one is the mileage is guaranteed, at 545KM (standard endurance version), and the other is the brand and intelligent, assisted driving rich configuration. 3) In terms of price, size and configuration, compared with competitors, ES6 is better, so although it is limited to electric vehicles, the sales level is still close to 6000 (including EC6).
Therefore, in the market of more than 300,000 medium-sized SUVs, pure electric sales are relatively low, only the Model Y is thriving, and we speculate that the mileage is an important factor affecting the sales of pure electric vehicles. In the future, if the penetration rate of electric vehicles continues to increase and high-quality products appear, the sales of electric vehicles in this market are expected to exceed 10,000 against the BBA.
To sum up, at this price point, the impact of the mileage is reduced, the large size of ES6, strong power for it to bring a good level in the field of electric vehicles, follow-up with the electric vehicle industry volume, it is expected that ES6 sales can be on a higher level. Analysis of the advantages and disadvantages of ES6 and competitors: 1) Size: In general, ES6 is dominant in terms of size, and it is basically better than other competitors listed in terms of comprehensive length, width, height and wheelbase, which is also a consistent feature of Weilai. 2) In terms of power performance, under the support of dual motors, power and torque, and 100 km acceleration performance are the best, reflecting good performance. 3) Other configurations: From the perspective of other configurations, the standard function of Weilai ES6 is at the intermediate level, mocha DHT, Model Y, BMW iX3 more, Mercedes-Benz GLC and BMW X3 the least, basically need to add money to choose. 4) The reason for the sales volume: compared with the same level of fuel vehicles, the ES6 is still low, but the gap is narrower than the ES8; compared with pure electric vehicles, the ES6 shows a sales level that is only second to the Model Y, and the performance at this price point is acceptable.
Xiaopeng: With good strength, there is still room for improvement compared with the sales of competitors
Xiaopeng G3: the size and power performance are not dominant, and the pricing is high
Positioned as a compact SUV priced at 168,900-203,900, the Xiaopeng G3 is 4.495 meters long and has a wheelbase of 2.625 meters, which is at the low end of the price point. Competitive product selection strategy: size dimension, we select similar size of Changan Ford Ruiji, Trumpchi GS4 COUPE, SAIC Volkswagen Tuyue; price dimension, in the specific model style, try to choose a specific model with similar price points; market dimension, because the Xiaopeng G3 is a pure electric vehicle model, so choose the same size and price of pure electric GAC Aean Y, BYD Yuan PLUS and WM EX5 as a comparison.
From the perspective of sales level, Xiaopeng G3 is lower than most gasoline competitors, and is at the same sales level as mainstream pure electric products, but weaker than BYD New Car PLUS. 1) Xiaopeng G3 is located in the compact SUV is a large audience, fierce competition in the market, the current fuel vehicle occupies the main market, the main model is about 10-15 million like Harvard H6, Changan CS75 PLUS such fuel vehicles, and pricing, G3 160,000 prices are also expensive compared with the main model. Therefore, compared with gasoline and hybrid, the monthly sales of G3 competitor Trumpchi GS4 COUPE and Volkswagen Tuyue Steady State were 19642 and 12235 units, respectively, while the monthly sales of G3 Steady State were only 2477 units, far lower than the main competitors. 2) From the perspective of pure electricity comparison, BYD Yuan, Aion Y, and WM EX5 sales were 10023, 2842, and 2703 vehicles respectively, of which G3 was close to Aion Y and WM EX5, but BYD Yuan was far beyond this level. To sum up, the sales volume of the A-class SUV market is still dominated by fuel vehicles, but there are excellent products that can achieve the same level, such as BYD, Xiaopeng G3 in electric vehicle sales close to other brands.
In summary, the Xiaopeng G3 is not as good as other competitors at the same price in terms of size and configuration, but the pricing is higher, so the sales level is weaker than that of fuel vehicles and excellent electric vehicles. G3 and competitor advantages and disadvantages analysis: 1) size: Comprehensively, the length, width, height and wheelbase of Xiaopeng G3 are at a disadvantage, and size is not its strength. 2) In terms of power performance: Xiaopeng G3 is at a medium level, not as good as Ford Ruiji, Yuan PLUS and WM EX5, but stronger than Aion Y. 3) Other configurations: Trumpchi GS4 COUPE has the most standard functions, and other models are not much different. 4) Sales formation analysis: For other models with lower prices in the same price point, the Xiaopeng G3 is not dominant in terms of size. For Ford Ruiji and SAIC Volkswagen Tuyue, which are relatively close to the price, the other standard functions of the Xiaopeng G3 are significantly less abundant than that of Tuyue. In the electric vehicle equivalent, BYD Yuan PLUS wins in range, power performance and size, while the Xiaopeng G3 is decent. (Source: Future Think Tank)
Xiaopeng P7: Sales continue to climb, and it has a good competitiveness in the competition
The P7 is a medium-sized sedan priced at 23.99-42.99 million, with a length of more than 4.8 meters and a wheelbase of nearly 3 meters, belonging to the B+ class sedan and belonging to the level of the middle luxury brand in terms of price. Competitive product selection strategy: size dimension, price dimension, in the specific model style, try to choose a specific model with similar price and similar size, so choose Volkswagen Audi A4L, BYD Han, GAC Toyota Camry; market dimension, because xiaopeng P7 is a pure electric new model, so choose Model 3, Weilai ET5, BMW i3 as a comparison.
From the perspective of sales level, Xiaopeng P7 has performed well in the fierce market. 1) In the B-class sedan market of more than 200,000, the monthly sales of fuel vehicle models such as Toyota Camry and Audi A4L were 18,064 and 14,838 units, respectively, which performed well. 2) In terms of pure electricity, Tesla Model 3 is thriving, and its monthly sales can be more than 20,000, surpassing fuel vehicles. 3) Compared with fuel competitors, the price and brand of Xiaopeng P7 do not have advantages, but the configuration is much richer than audi A4, so the sales volume is half of it. 4) Compared with pure electric competitors, Xiaopeng P7 is close to BYD Han, lower than Model 3, and is at the upper middle level. To sum up, more than 200,000 B-class sedan market, excellent product performance is relatively average, monthly sales are more than 10,000 or even 20,000 levels, Xiaopeng P7 in this market can achieve more than 7,000 monthly sales, the performance can also be remarkable.
In general, in the high-end market, Xiaopeng has intelligent and configuration advantages to compete with tesla model3 and BYD Han with the same level of high performance, and there is still room for sales to increase. P7 and competitor advantages and disadvantages analysis: 1) size: Xiaopeng P7 is not the longest among competitors, but the wheelbase reaches 2998mm, which is a highlight to attract consumers. 2) Power performance: Xiaopeng P7 uses a single motor, which is lower than the power, torque and acceleration time of the dual motors used by Tesla Model3 and NIO ET5, and the mileage is lower than that of Han. 3) Other configurations: P7 has more standard functions, only BYD Han and WEILAI ET5 configuration is as complete as Xiaopeng P7. 4) Reasons affecting sales: In the high-end market, Tesla and NIO ET5 at the same price point have much stronger power performance than the P7. In the mid-range market, Xiaopeng has a power performance advantage, equipped with a full range of intelligent cockpit configurations, making it a relatively successful model of Xiaopeng.
Xiaopeng P5
Xiaopeng P5 is positioned in a compact sedan, priced at 179,990-24.29 million, its length is 4.8 meters, the wheelbase is close to 2.8 meters, belongs to the A-class sedan, has a richer version of intelligent configuration, and belongs to the volkswagen level in price. Competitive product selection strategy: size dimension, we select similar size Buick Regal, SAIC Volkswagen Lingdu; price dimension, in the specific model style, try to choose a specific model with similar price; market dimension, because xiaopeng P5 is a new energy model, so choose BYD Qin Plus EV, GAC AION S PLUS as a comparison.
From the perspective of sales level, Xiaopeng P5 is lower in fuel competitors and close to the sales level of similar new energy products. 1) In the A-class sedan market, fuel vehicles are the main models, such as Langyi and Xuanyi, with monthly sales of about 45,000 units. 2) Electric vehicles, because the A-class sedan positioning 100,000-200,000 market, the price belt consumers pursue cost performance and functional comprehensiveness, while the price of pure electric vehicles is higher than the price of fuel vehicles of the same level, so the overall sales of pure electric vehicles are low, and the average monthly sales of mainstream pure electric models Qin PLUS EV and AION S PLUS are about 5,000 units. 3) The P5 will be launched in mid-2021 and is still in the sales growth stage, so December 2021 is selected as its peak, about 5030 units. It is weaker than that of oil-fired vehicles, and is at the same level as electric vehicles.
To sum up, the market competition is fierce, consumers are more cost-effective, the current market is mainly occupied by fuel vehicles, so P5 sales in the same electric vehicles are acceptable, but still much lower than fuel vehicles. After the cost of pure electricity falls in the future, pure electric vehicle models are expected to penetrate rapidly in this market.
P5 and competitor advantages and disadvantages analysis: 1) size: In addition to the height at this price, the dimensions of Xiaopeng P5 are not prominent, and the outstanding performance is Buick Regal and Aion S. 2) Power performance: In addition to Buick Regal, Xiaopeng P5 indicators are still more prominent, 150kW maximum power and 310Nm maximum torque is higher than Qin Plus and Aion S and Lingdu. However, for electric vehicles, the low-end Xiaopeng P5 has a cruising range of only 450km, which is far from the 600km of Qin Plus and the 510km of Aion S. 3) Other configurations: From the perspective of other configurations, the P5 entry-level version has fewer standard functions, such as parallel assist, lane departure warning, lane keeping, road traffic identification These functions are only high-end, but the same price of Qin, and even the lower price of Lingdu are equipped with these functions, but from the cockpit human-computer interaction entertainment performance, P5 is better.
Ideal: The most outstanding brand among competitors
Ideal one: One move to win
Ideal one is positioned as a medium-sized SUV, initially priced at 328,000, and after two facelifts, the price is 338,000 and 349,800, respectively. With a length of more than 5 meters and a wheelbase of nearly 3 meters, it is a C-class SUV, and the 2021 model has only six seats, which belongs to the luxury brand level in terms of price. Competitive selection strategy: size dimension, we select similar size Weilai ES8, Model X, Lantu Free, Cadillac XT6, Audi e-tron; price and market dimensions, select the price range of models with a value close to the ideal one, including Buick Encore Flag, Volkswagen ID.6, Volkswagen Tuon, Ford Explorer. We will compare the differences in space, price, power performance and configuration between the ideal one and the competing models to find out the reasons for the position of their sales in the same category.
From the perspective of sales level, the ideal is ahead of the competitors. 1) Gasoline and hybrid SUVs sell significantly better than pure electric SUVs. The average monthly sales of gasoline and hybrid SUVs are more than 2,000 units, and the average monthly sales of pure electric models are less than 1,500 units, and the dividing line is obvious. 2) In terms of gasoline and hybrid models, the Cadillac XT6 has 3,167 units; in 2021, due to the lack of cores, the highest annual sales average in Touron's history (2018) was selected, with an average monthly sales of 7,182 units. Ideal one launched in 2019 and has now formed steady-state sales, with an average monthly sales of 7541 vehicles, leading the competition.
Overall, due to the ideal one's own product iteration and product force leadership, to ensure product reputation and high-quality evaluation, and due to the ideal self-operated channel sales ability is strong, good after-sales service, through the ripple effect to continuously enhance user stickiness. After the combination of many factors, it is reflected in sales volume, which is the absolute leader in the average monthly sales volume of competing models.
Ideal ONE and competitor advantages and disadvantages analysis: 1) Size: The size of the ideal one ranks high in the competition comparison, leaving enough space for the 2-2-2 seat distribution in the interior space and providing a guarantee for cockpit comfort. 2) Power performance: The ideal one As a hybrid model, the leading power performance can be achieved through lower fuel consumption. With price bands approaching, the relationship between power and fuel consumption is one of the reasons why the ideal one leads in average monthly sales. 3) Intelligent configuration: In the cockpit domain, the ideal one in the car screen, microphone, audio number leading, coupled with its self-developed vehicle interaction system, powerful software and hardware configuration for the cockpit domain intelligent level escort; in the auxiliary driving domain, the ideal car pays attention to the auxiliary driving domain function and safety, and leads in the functional competition models. 4) The reason for the leading sales: the product strength has a comprehensive lead in the competitive models, coupled with the ideal self-operated sales channels to ensure the high sales ability of the ideal store.
3 New car outlook: Brands continue to extend their product lines
NIO: ET7, ET5, ES7, sedan and SUVs double breakthrough
The ET7 is a medium- to large-sized car priced at 448,000-526,000, with a length of more than 5 meters and a wheelbase of more than 3 meters, and the main competitors at this price are luxury brands. Competitive product selection strategy: size dimension, we select bydir han and extreme krypton 001 with similar size; price dimension, the same price band as far as possible to choose the size of the close, choose BMW 5 Series, Mercedes-Benz E-Class, Audi A6L; in the specific model style, try to choose a specific model with similar price; we will compare the differences in space, price, power performance and configuration of THE NIO ET7 and the competitor models, and give the sales expectations when the future sales are stable.
From the perspective of sales level, the C-class sedan market is mainly fuel-based, and there are fewer pure electric high-quality products. 1) In the C-class sedan market, the main model is BBA fuel vehicles, such as BMW 5 Series, Audi A6L and Mercedes-Benz E monthly sales of 14401, 12866, 11851 units respectively, although the minimum price is more than 400,000, but still can achieve more than 10,000 sales performance. 2) In electric vehicles, BYD Han performed best, with monthly sales of 9805 vehicles, close to 10,000 (the current DMI+EV has been continuously over 10,000), extreme Krypton because it has just been listed, in the climbing period of delivery, so the monthly sales are about 4000 vehicles.
On the whole, ET7 has certain advantages in power performance and configuration, according to its products, it is speculated that its steady-state monthly sales are stronger than the worst level of competitors, weaker than the strongest level of competitors, and are expected to reach 4000 vehicles / month. ET7 and competitor advantages and disadvantages analysis: 1) price: ET7 pricing is high, 450,000 starting, similar to BBA, higher than Han, extreme krypton, comprehensive price and brand considerations, the advantage is not large; 2) size: ET7 in the length and width and wheelbase although not advantageous, but also at a medium level; 3) power performance: ET7 whether power, torque or 100 km acceleration is the best competitors; 4) endurance: ET7 standard endurance of 500km, long endurance version of 700km, compared to ES8 There is a significant improvement, but there is no obvious advantage in the competition, Hanhe Extreme Kr will launch a long-endurance model; 5) other configurations: ET7 configuration is more abundant than traditional luxury brands and new energy brands.
The ET5 is a mid-size car priced at 328,000-386,000, with a length of nearly 4.8 meters and a wheelbase of more than 2.8 meters. Competitive product selection strategy: size and price dimensions, we select similar size BMW 3 Series, Audi A4L, Model 3, Xiaopeng P7, Toyota Camry; in the specific model style, try to choose a specific model with similar prices. We will compare the differences between NIO ET5 and competitor models in terms of space, price, power performance and configuration, and give sales expectations when their sales are stable in the future.
From the perspective of sales level, the B-class sedan is currently based on fuel vehicles. The ET5 went public at the end of last year and will be delivered this year, and its competitors are currently selling at a high level. Gasoline competitors such as average monthly sales of more than 10,000 vehicles; pure e-sports products, Model March average sales of about 20,000 vehicles, Xiaopeng achieved a single monthly sales of more than 7,000 vehicles; hybrid competitors, Camry and Accord are the best-selling classic models in the market, with average monthly sales of more than 16,000 vehicles.
On the whole, ET5 has certain advantages in terms of power performance and configuration, and its monthly sales are expected to reach 7000 units/month after its product speculation. ET5 and competitor advantages and disadvantages analysis: 1) price, 1) size: ET5 size is medium in the same price point competitors; 2) power performance: ET5 maximum power and torque, 100 km acceleration are better than the competition; 3) endurance: ET5 endurance UNDER CLTC standards in 550km, the same price point products do not have obvious advantages; 4) other configurations: ET5 continues the style of Weilai, the configuration is very rich, whether compared to traditional luxury brands or new energy brands.
The ES7 is a mid-size SUV that is expected to start at between 300,000 and 400,000 yuan, mainly benchmarking the BMW X5. Competitive product selection strategy: size dimension, because the specific model information of WEILAI ES7 has not yet been disclosed, we combine the size of the competitors and Weilai ES series models as a reference, select the model Y and Tiguan L PHEV with similar size; the price dimension, with the price band as much as possible to choose the size of the close, choose BMW X3, Mercedes-Benz GLC; in the specific model style, try to choose the specific model with similar price; we will compare the difference between the Weilai ES7 and the competitor models in terms of space, price, power performance and configuration, Give its sales volume expectations when the future is stable.
From the perspective of competitive sales, the average monthly sales of competitors are higher, of which Model Y is the highest. The ES7 is positioned slightly higher than the ES6, but it is a B-class SUV, and the market is currently dominated by fuel vehicles. The sales performance of the main models in this market are good, with BBA fuel vehicles such as the BMW X3 and Mercedes-Benz GLC with monthly sales of 10,743 and 11,671 units, respectively, while the Model Y has the highest monthly sales of 25,659 units.
Since the specific model information of WEILAI ES7 has not yet been disclosed, we combine the competitors and the parameters of the NIO ES series models as a reference, speculating that ES7 is expected to have certain advantages in terms of size, power performance and intelligent configuration, etc. After the comprehensive market space and competitive product information, considering the high pricing of WEILAI, it is expected that the average monthly sales of ES7 steady state are expected to reach 6000 vehicles / month.
1) Size: Nio ES7 size should be between ES6 and ES8, reference ES6 length, width and wheelbase are 4850/1965/1758/2900, respectively, it is speculated that NIO ES7 size may be better than competitor models at the same price; 2) Power Performance: Refer to NIO ES6 100 km acceleration of 4.7-5.6 seconds, it is speculated that the power performance of NIO ES7 may be better than that of traditional competitive models; 3) Endurance: NIO ES6/ES8 NEDC pure electric cruising range Between 450-610km, and the Model Y NEDC pure electric cruising range of 525-594km, it is speculated that the NIO ES7 endurance performance will also be better; 4) other configurations: NIO ES7 intelligent level is consistent with ET5 and ET7, equipped with lidar and high camera, can achieve NAD automatic driving capabilities, better than traditional competitive models.
Xiaopeng: G9, medium and large SUV priced upwards
The Xiaopeng G9 is positioned as a medium and large SUV and is expected to sell for 300,000 yuan. Competitive product selection strategy: size dimension, according to the official disclosure photo calculation, select BMW X3, Audi Q5L, Mercedes-Benz GLC with similar size; price dimension, the same price grid belt as far as possible to choose the size of the close, choose Buick Encore Flag, AION LX, Lantu FREE, Weilai ES6 and EC6; in the specific model style, try to choose the specific model with similar price; we will compare the difference between the Xiaopeng G9 and the competing models in terms of space, price, power performance and configuration, Give its sales volume expectations when the future is stable.
From the perspective of competitive product sales, the sales of traditional fuel vehicles are higher, and the sales of new energy models are lower. In the medium and large SUV market, BBA fuel vehicles are the mainstay, and new energy sales are low. Among the traditional fuel vehicle competitors, BMW Audi products have an average monthly sales of more than 10,000, BMW X3, Audi Q5L, Mercedes-Benz GLC are 10743, 12449, 11671 units, respectively, while Buick Encore Banner monthly sales are only 2800 vehicles. The average monthly sales of new energy competitors are low, all below 4000 vehicles, Aion LX, Lantu FREE, NIO EC6, NIO ES6 monthly sales of 84, 566, 2510, 3478 units, respectively.
Since the specific model information of Xiaopeng G9 has not yet been disclosed, after we synthesize market space and competitive product information, we expect that the average monthly sales of Xiaopeng G9 steady state are expected to reach 5,000 vehicles/month. G9 and competitor advantages and disadvantages analysis: 1) size: Xiaopeng G9 positioning medium and large SUV, according to the official disclosure photos, its size may be better than the traditional fuel vehicle competitors; 2) power performance: refer to the 2021 Xiaopeng P7 100 km acceleration of 4.3 seconds, 2021 Xiaopeng G3 100 km acceleration of 8.6 seconds, it is speculated that the Xiaopeng G9 100 km acceleration may lead the traditional fuel vehicle competitors; 3) Endurance: Reference Xiaopeng P7 NEDC Comprehensive cruising range between 480-670km, and Xiaopeng G9 It can be charged for more than 200 kilometers in 5 minutes, so the G9 may have better endurance performance; 4) Other configurations: Xiaopeng G9 is the first production car equipped with XPILOT 4.0 function, and its level of intelligence is expected to be ahead of traditional fuel vehicle competitors.
Ideal: L9, is expected to become the second blockbuster model
Ideal L9 positioned as a large SUV, initially priced at 450,000-500,000, with a length of more than 5 meters and a wheelbase of more than 3 meters, belongs to the C-class SUV, and the 2022 model is based on the six-seat version, touching the luxury brand level at the price point. Competitive selection strategy: size dimension, we select similar size Mercedes-Benz GLS, BMW X7, Lincoln Navigator, Hongqi E-HS9; price and market dimensions, select models with the middle value of the price range close to the ideal L9, including Lexus NX, Cadillac XT6, BMW X5, NIO ES8, Audi e-tron. We will compare the differences between the ideal L9 and the competitor models in terms of space, price, power performance and configuration, and summarize the advantages of the ideal L9 to form a comparative analysis of competitiveness. At the same time, combined with the historical performance of the company's launched models, the ideal future sales of the L9 are predicted.
In terms of sales, the ideal L9 has the potential to be ahead of competing models. 1) Gasoline and hybrid SUVs sell significantly better than pure electric SUVs. The average monthly sales of gasoline and hybrid SUVs are more than 2,000 units, and the average monthly sales of pure electric models are less than 1,500 units, and the dividing line is obvious. 2) From the perspective of gasoline and hybrid models, the Cadillac XT6 is in 3,167 units; due to imports, BMW X5 sales are 4,247 units, and the average monthly sales of models are industry-leading. 3) Large SUV sales are low, with large SUVs selling less than 1,500 units due to product pricing of more than one million. Ideal L9 as an extended range large SUV, there is no pure electric restrictions; the pricing strategy of 500,000 will not limit its own sales due to excessive price, combined with the above two aspects, the ideal L9 has the possibility of sales ahead of competitors.
Overall, ideal through the cost-effective strategy to ensure their own product differentiation advantages, coupled with the ideal self-operated channel sales ability is strong, good after-sales service, through the ripple effect to continuously enhance user stickiness. Since the ideal L9 guarantees high-quality space and power performance, coupled with the ideal leading level of intelligence, the ideal L9 product force will lead the competition. After the combination of many factors, future sales are expected to remain ahead of the competition, and the average monthly sales volume of the ideal L9 is expected to be 5000-7000 units. 1) Size: The size of the ideal L9 ranks in the competition comparison, for the interior space is larger than the ideal one, and retains the ideal one2-2-2 seat distribution, the space layout is more reasonable, providing a guarantee for the comfort of the cockpit, under the same price band, the ideal L9 will help L9 sales lead in the competitive models due to its own larger space and cabin domain. 2) Power performance: The ideal L9 as a hybrid model, can achieve the leading power performance through lower fuel consumption. With price bands approaching, the relationship between power and fuel consumption is one of the reasons why the ideal L9 leads in average monthly sales.
4 From the perspective of product competitiveness, the sales volume of each brand is expected
Comparing the competitors of the listed models, the ideal performance is the best, and Weilai and Xiaopeng have room for improvement. From the listed models, we analyzed the market sales volume and advantages and disadvantages of the Weilai ES8 and ES6, Xiaopeng G3, P7, P5, and the ideal One, and concluded:
1) Ideal: Ideal One with excellent cost performance, accurate positioning of market crowds, extended range hybrid, which not only solves the pressure of fuel pressure but also solves the pressure of range anxiety, as well as good word-of-mouth quality, rich intelligent configuration in the same kind of competitors are very prominent.
2) Weilai: Its route is high-end, to create a user social experience, so the pricing is high, ES8, ES6 in the market are based on BBA fuel vehicles, especially in the ES8 such as medium and large SUVs, consumers out of car demand, the pure electric mileage sensitivity is high. ES6 at this price, the impact of the mileage is reduced, the large size of the ES6, the strong power for it to bring a good level in the field of electric vehicles, follow-up with the electric vehicle industry volume, it is expected that sales can be on a higher level.
3) Xiaopeng: Xiaopeng positioning is relatively low (compared to the price of Weilai and the ideal existing models), so the sales of its competitors are basically more than 10,000, the mainstream of the G3 market should be 10-15 million fuel vehicles, compared to the G3 pricing is higher; P7 competitors are BBA cars and model 3, Han and other new energy vehicle benchmarks, so P7 sales can be only inferior to the above brands, the performance is also good; P5 as a lower level of sedan, its competitors are still fuel vehicles as the main, Sales of pure electric brands in this market are low.
In terms of new car comparison, Weilai has released the most new cars, sedans and SUVs are two-pronged, Xiaopeng G9 drives the brand price upwards, and the ideal L9 is expected to create a second explosive model. Combined with the above analysis, we compare competitors in the same way with each new car to predict sales. (Source: Future Think Tank)
1) WEILAI: ET7 and ET5 are similar to the layout of ES8 and ES6 in the sedan market, of which ET7 competitors are mainly BBA C-class cars, as well as Han and Extreme Kr, most of the monthly sales are more than 10,000, the market's high-quality electric vehicle supply is small, ET7's advantage is that the power performance is outstanding, but the size, endurance and no special advantages, and the pricing is also slightly higher, so it gives monthly sales of 4000 vehicles. ET5 competitors are Toyota Camry, Xiaopeng P7, BMW 3 Series, Audi A4L, Model 3 these mainstream models, sales performance is not bad, ET5 advantages are still in the power performance, but from the configuration point of view, such as air suspension and assisted driving standards than similar competitors, so give monthly sales of 7000 vehicles. ES7 positioning in the ES6 is a little higher, the future will also take over ES6 as the company's main model, the market to BBA fuel vehicles and Tesla Model Y-based, monthly sales are more than 10,000, ES7 compared to the competitors are currently less public information, mainly in accordance with the status of ES6 to make predictions, giving ES7 monthly sales of 7000 vehicles expected.
2) Xiaopeng: In the medium and large SUV market, BBA fuel vehicles are the mainstay, and new energy sales are low. The size of the Xiaopeng G9 due to the fuel vehicle competitors, high power performance, and intelligent configuration, Xiaopeng G9 is equipped with XPILOT 4.0 function of the first mass production car, it is speculated that its level of intelligence may be ahead of the traditional fuel vehicle competitors, it is expected that the Average monthly sales of Xiaopeng G9 steady state is expected to reach 5000 units.
3) Ideal: L9 ensures high-quality space and power performance, coupled with the ideal leading level of intelligence, the ideal L9 product force will lead in the competition. In terms of competitors, gasoline and hybrid SUVs sold significantly better than pure electric SUVs. Average monthly sales of gasoline and hybrid SUVs are more than 2,000 units, and average monthly sales of pure electric models are less than 1,500 units. Ideal L9 as a large range extender SUV, there is no pure electric restrictions; the pricing strategy of 500,000 will not limit its own sales due to excessive price, combined with the above two aspects, the ideal L9 has the possibility of sales ahead of competitors. Coupled with the ideal self-operated sales channels to ensure the high sales capacity of the ideal store, it is expected that the average monthly sales volume of the ideal L9 is 5000-7000 units.
Considering the time of listing of some models, the monthly sales volume in 2022 has been adjusted, and the sales volume of each brand model is expected to be shown in the following table, as shown in the following table, it can be seen that Weilai has launched many models, and the current steady state sales of these models are expected to reach 312,000 vehicles a year; Xiaopeng is expected to achieve 183,000 units and 240,000 steady state vehicles in 2022 with the release of old models and the blessing of G9; ideal based on the first explosive One to continue to build L9, is expected to rely on two cars to achieve 150,000 sales this year, steady state is expected to be achieved 192,000 units.
(This article is for informational purposes only and does not represent any of our investment advice.) For usage information, see the original report. ）
Featured report source: [Future Think Tank].