With the End of the New Year's Day holiday, we have officially embarked on a new journey for 2022. Looking back on 2021 for new energy vehicles, it can be said that it is a year in which difficulties and opportunities coexist. From the subsidy reduction of 20% announced by the "whistle" on December 31, 2020, to the "chip shortage" and the shortage of some spare parts caused by the impact of the "new crown pneumonia" epidemic in the middle of the year, these can be said to have caused a lot of "blows" to the development of the industry and the market.
But at the same time, we have seen that consumers' acceptance of new energy models is improving, many people will always put one or more electric vehicles in the process of car selection and car purchase, and more and more people will eventually choose to buy a new energy model as a means of transportation for daily transportation and outing. According to the sales data of the China Association in November, the sales volume of China's new energy market was 378,000 units, accounting for 20.8% of the overall passenger car sales in November.
On January 4th, on the eve of the opening of the 2022 (4th) Haikou International New Energy and Intelligent Connected Vehicle Exhibition, the 2021 New Energy Vehicle Annual Ceremony, guided by the Automotive Industry Branch of the China Council for the Promotion of International Trade and hosted by Electric State, was officially held in Haikou. As the first theme event of the first automobile exhibition in 2022, this year's grand ceremony summarized the performance and achievements of the new energy automobile industry and market in the past year, and also "boldly" predicted what opportunities and challenges the industry will face in the future development process.
First of all, Chai Zhanxiang, assistant president of the Automotive Industry Branch of the China Council for the Promotion of International Trade, delivered a speech, he said that the current Chinese auto market has undergone profound changes in nature, such as the sales of electric vehicles have reached 3 million, the export volume is also more than 2 million, while the market share of independent brands has reached a record high of 44%, these achievements are beyond many people's previous expectations, in addition, many Chinese brand products are also extending upwards, many models are priced in the range of 200,000, 300,000, There are also high-end models priced in the range of 600,000 and 700,000.
Therefore, at this stage, the automotive industry should take the past achievements as a driving force to push China's automobile industry to a higher level. As the theme of this year's gala, the automotive industry is indeed closer than any other year to the era of qualitative change. The Automotive Industry Branch of the China Council for the Promotion of International Trade believes that the automotive industry urgently needs an opportunity to allow people in the industry to share past success or failure experiences, affirm the brands that have achieved outstanding results before, and also look forward to the future development prospects. The 2021 new energy vehicle annual ceremony hosted by Electric State has undertaken these heavy responsibilities and is more meaningful in today's special environment.
■ Seven features of 2021
Summarizing 2021, we found that the achievements of the new energy automobile industry are more than difficult, and Cheng Li, founder and CEO of Electric Bang, Cheyun and Cheyoufan, believes that last year's new energy automobile industry reflected the "seven characteristics".
The first significant feature is that the penetration rate of new energy vehicles has continued to increase, from 7.17% in January last year, to 21.1% in September, and then to 20% in November. It can be seen that the market share occupied by new energy vehicles is increasing, and it is constantly "eating" the share of fuel vehicles. According to the American scholar Rogers' theory of innovative diffusion, this means that the market will next enter a period of rapid growth of the "early majority".
We believe that the reason why the penetration rate can increase at such a speed stems from two aspects, one is that the "seller's" product competitiveness is getting stronger and stronger, giving consumers a reason to buy an electric vehicle; on the other hand, consumers' awareness of electric vehicles is growing, and gradually increasing their trust in new energy models, Chinese brands, and even new power brands and the courage to "try the early".
The second significant feature is that electric vehicles have entered the stage of frontal Pk with conventional fuel vehicles. We see that since Xiaopeng Motors took the lead in increasing the cruising range of P7 to 700km, many brands have also increased their weight, and from the beginning of research and development, they have included 700+km of endurance into the program, such as Extreme Kr ZEEKR 001, NIO ET7, ET5 and so on. In addition, many brands are intensively developing or applying technologies with a range of more than 1,000km, such as GAC Aean. The landing of these technologies can make electric vehicles infinitely close to conventional fuel vehicles in terms of "activity ability".
In addition, technologies such as 800V high-voltage charging, AI chips independently developed by Chinese brands, and domestic lidar with 1000 TOPS computing power and other technologies are under development or have landed, and even new energy vehicles have been able to surpass the value of fuel vehicles in terms of intelligence.
Therefore, electric vehicles that are "energetic" and more intelligent naturally have an advantage in terms of cost performance compared with conventional fuel vehicles. This also confirms the first major feature, consumers in the face of more cost-effective products, of course, will "vote with their feet".
The third major feature of new energy vehicles in 2021 is the brand upwards. Although the new energy vehicle brands on the market are not all luxury brands in the high-end market, they seem to be desperately growing upwards.
For example, Weilai's sales in 2021 reached 91,429 vehicles, doubling for two consecutive years, and the average selling price of its products was about 400,000, which has surpassed BBA. Even the real luxury brand Gaohe Automobile has reached more than 700 units per month, once surpassing the Porsche Taycan. These signs show that there is still a lot of room for growth in the high-end market in the field of electric vehicles. After many new brands and new forces have gradually gained a foothold, they are also seeking upward breakthroughs, such as ideal cars and Xiaopeng motors. In the product planning of these two brands, whether it is the ideal new model or the Xiaopeng G9 that was unveiled at the Guangzhou Auto Show last year, it is the "vanguard" of the brand trying to enter the high-end market. In the "world" of conventional fuel vehicles, it is difficult for an ordinary brand to transform into a high-end luxury brand, but electric vehicles have such space and opportunities. And if more brands seize these opportunities, I am afraid that for traditional luxury brands, it will undoubtedly be a big impact.
The fourth feature is that plug-in hybrid and extended range electric models usher in the "early spring". If the ideal ONE in 2020 is a car market "lone wolf", not only let people who are not optimistic about the extended range electric vehicle model punch in the face, but also fight against the menacing pure electric vehicle "army" alone, then the plug-in hybrid and extended range electric market in 2021 is more colorful.
Among them, the BYD DM-i series is definitely an iconic existence, but at the beginning, even BYD DM-i project insiders did not expect the series to become a "hit" when it was listed, and even Wang Chuanfu only asked for a monthly sales target of 5,000 vehicles. However, since then, BYD's DM-i series has been favored by consumers in the market, and its monthly sales can reach more than 30,000 vehicles, which is indeed unexpected by everyone.
On the other hand, the good sales of BYD plug-in hybrid models are not out of thin air, first of all, the price range of the main sales models of the series is in the range of 100,000 to 200,000, which has penetrated into the market hinterland of traditional fuel vehicles and directly grabbed this part of the market share. In addition, BYD also has a clear way of playing the regional market, that is, in cities with insufficient awareness of electric vehicles and poor sales, it is more acceptable to plug-in hybrid models, which has great lethality for fuel vehicles. We judge that in the future, plug-in hybrid and extended-range electric models will seize the conventional fuel vehicle market in a large area, because they are more attractive than conventional fuel vehicles in terms of price, cost performance, and intelligence.
The fifth feature in the field of new energy vehicles in 2021 is that the rapid development of intelligence and the rise of China's automotive supply chain are injecting more potential energy into Chinese brands and new power brands.
This is because at present, it is not only the PK of electric vehicles and fuel vehicles, but also the "competition" between smart cars and functional cars. Chinese car companies do have stronger localization advantages in this regard, and new power car companies do have less baggage and more Internet thinking. Although Chinese brands have inherent disadvantages in many conventional mechanical technologies, such as engines, transmissions and chassis. However, in terms of software and intelligence, Chinese brands can take the lead, have faster learning ability and response ability, especially in the aspects of automatic driving assistance and intelligent cockpit, which has enhanced the overall competitiveness of Chinese brands.
Of course, this is inseparable from the rapid growth of China's new energy vehicle supply chain system, and many brands even have world-class competitiveness and become benchmarks in their respective fields.
The sixth feature is that traditional car companies and foreign brands are accelerating the transformation of electrification, the reason is that on the one hand, this is the clear requirements of the national energy strategy and the carbon peak and carbon neutrality plan, on the other hand, the first few characteristics we have sorted out are also factors that force traditional car companies and foreign brands to electrify.
From the following chart, we can see that Volkswagen banned the sale of fuel vehicles in the car companies at the earliest time, and the electrification transformation is also the most resolute, while the Japanese brand is relatively "calm", but Toyota Akio released Toyota's electrification strategy in November last year, which shows that Toyota has weakened hydrogen energy and fully transformed electrification.
The seventh feature of China's new energy automobile industry in 2021 is that many Chinese brands are actively going to overseas markets, such as Nezha, Xiaopeng, Weilai, BYD, and even FAW Hongqi, as well as AIWAYS and SAIC MG MG, which have landed before, which will withstand the test of the world's most stringent pure electric vehicle market.
But we don't think this is surprising, because cars, like mobile phones, are a product suitable for globalization in their own right. At present, the global automotive industry is experiencing the fourth industrial revolution, towards intelligent, informatization, electrification development, and China, as the largest single market and manufacturing base, is very hopeful to take this opportunity to breed world-class automobile brands.
■ Embrace change and seize the day
For the industry is experiencing the "intelligent revolution + energy revolution", Wen Fei, CEO of Sharon Zhixing, has a deep feeling, and as a representative of the automobile brand, he also delivered a keynote speech of "My 2021" at this ceremony. Wen Fei believes that we are currently in a century full of opportunities. As the backbone of the national economy, the automobile industry is rapidly completing the industrial upgrading from fuel to intelligent new energy, and is experiencing a change in the pattern from the Western-led fuel track to the china-led intelligent electric track. As a practitioner in it, we should completely embrace change with a pioneering and innovative spirit, and challenge ourselves to the extreme with an attitude of only seizing the day.
It is based on this belief that Sharon Zhixing was born and grew a brand, which created a new category of mecha technology for intelligent electric vehicles, and created a full range of mecha technology products with the concept of "although niche, but extreme". With the cool hardcore shape, the ultimate performance performance, the world's leading intelligent perception system, the perfect energy replenishment system, and the global zero-carbon value growth system, it brings users a unique product and service experience of "warm and cool".
In addition, Salon is also unique enough in terms of market positioning, and they believe that rather than only 10% of the market with a capacity of 90%, it is far more valuable than a 90% share in a market segment with only 10% capacity. Sharon Zhixing does not cater to the non-kitsch, focusing on serving the same people with good values.
For 2022, Wenfei said that Sharon Zhixing should accelerate the construction of a dynamic adaptive organizational structure that integrates "mechanism traction", "governance guarantee", "culture orientation" and "ability support". Replace the mentality of professional managers with the mentality of a partnership entrepreneur and establish the internal motivation for long-term struggle; mesh the flat organization with the level of gears instead of the vertical centralized organization according to the department level; optimize the governance structure and decision-making process in the form of decision-making of the business decision-making committee + employee representative executive committee; replace the traditional passive execution culture with the self-driven active responsibility culture, and activate the symbiosis and co-growth of individuals and organizations.
At the end of the speech, Wenfei, on behalf of Salon Automobile, presented a couplet of the Year of the Tiger with "mecha dragon" hidden in the grand ceremony and also full of deep blessings for the new year of the automotive industry.
■ Big forecast for 2022
After summarizing 2021, this year's ceremony also invited representatives of car companies to discuss the current hot topics, and we also saw some development directions for new energy vehicles in 2022.
For the more sensitive issue of subsidy decline in 2022, most of the guests said that the impact on the market is not large and will soon be digested. In addition, some guests said that the subsidy decline can just promote more technological innovation and industry changes, and at the same time trigger car companies to think about the cost of using cars, and introduce more flexible and changeable financial policies, such as Weilai's BaaS model, so the subsidy decline is not only not a bad thing, but has a positive effect.
For the penetration rate of the new energy vehicle market in 2022, many guests said that they could not accurately predict the specific market share in 2022, but there is no doubt that China's smart electric vehicle market will develop rapidly. The electric state believes that although the current policy subsidies have been reduced, we can still pay attention to whether the state will subsidize or support more accurately from projects such as "cars going to the countryside", which may have a better stimulating effect on the increase of market penetration of new energy vehicles. As for the market penetration rate of new energy vehicles in 2022, we boldly guess that it will be between 20% and 25%.
In addition, for more and more important female consumers, many guests believe that women will definitely become an important car buying group in the future, but they will also be divided into many types and roles, such as young girls and professional women with children, so they have a set of standards for car suitability, and they cannot rely on a style or image to impress more female consumers. In addition, for many highly educated and high-income women, they are more sensitive and resistant to "labeling", but the products that are not clearly pointed out are more favored by them.
At the end of this ceremony, it is the 2021 new energy vehicle annual awards, this time set up a total of 36 awards, respectively, to recognize the outstanding achievements in 2021 brands and models, it is they for today's new energy market open, inclusive, positive and optimistic atmosphere has played a vital role.
■ Bang reviews
For the current automotive industry, the development trend of intelligence and electrification has been very clear and unstoppable. However, there are still many challenges and problems to be faced, including the business model and how to solve consumer pain points, which require time to explore. We judge that the situation in the new energy vehicle market will be seen at the beginning of 2023, 2025 will be a feng shui ridge, and 2030 will finally decide the winner or loser.
As a professional new energy vehicle media platform, the value proposition of Electric State is to promote the reform of intelligent electric vehicles, so that more consumers can understand, recognize and purchase electric vehicles and new energy vehicles. We believe that after entering the era of intelligent electric vehicles, all automotive practitioners should upgrade their thinking and cognition, look at problems from a more open perspective, and must continue to iterate, so as to truly solve consumer pain points and achieve the goal of "double carbon" to create a new energy vehicle.
The results of 2021 are in the past, and the journey of 2022 has just begun, and the power is added.