In 2020, China's new energy vehicle sales are 1.3 million; the market's early forecast for 2021 is 1.5 million to 1.8 million. However, in the first 11 months of 2021, the sales of new energy vehicles were close to 3 million, bringing great surprises. It is generally predicted that in 2022, the sales volume of new energy vehicles will reach 5 million. From 1.3 million to 3 million, and then to the expected 5 million, China's new energy vehicle market will not only usher in rapid sales growth, but also have more to look forward to.
It is expected to complete the planned goals ahead of schedule
In the first 11 months of 2021, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 3.023 million units and 2.99 million units, respectively, an increase of 1.7 times year-on-year; the market penetration rate reached 12.7%. Among them, the market penetration rate of new energy vehicles in November has reached 17.8%, and the penetration rate of the new energy passenger car market has even reached 19.5%. Production and sales in November were as high as 450,000 units. It took only 11 months for the production of new energy vehicles to reach the 3 million level, which was much higher than expected.
Looking back at the beginning of 2021, the predictions of the auto market in 2021 are much lower than this value. At that time, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (hereinafter referred to as "CAAM") predicted that the sales of new energy vehicles in 2021 are expected to reach 1.8 million units, an increase of 40% year-on-year; the Data Resource Center of China Automotive Technology and Research Center predicted 1.5 million vehicles. This is a forecast made by all parties with reference to factors such as the decline of subsidies in 2021, the macroeconomic situation in 2021, the development trend of the market and the development status of enterprises. For such a forecast, at the time, it seemed to be a bit too optimistic, after all, the sales of new energy vehicles in 2020 were only 1.3 million units, an increase of 8% year-on-year. Now it seems a bit too conservative. However, this also fully shows that the growth rate of new energy vehicles in 2021 exceeds expectations, and new energy vehicles have shifted from policy promotion to market-oriented development, and market-oriented development is inseparable from the continuous enrichment of products and the continuous optimization of the use environment.
It is precisely seeing the potential of this market-oriented development that all parties generally judge that the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China are expected to exceed 5 million in 2022, and even some companies predict that the sales of passenger cars alone may exceed 5 million. The market's optimistic judgment on the rapid growth of the new energy passenger car market is not unfounded. Whether it is products or infrastructure or the consumption concept and consumption environment of new energy vehicles, it has been greatly improved in 2021, coupled with the continuous help of policies and other aspects, the rapid growth of new energy vehicles is fully expected to continue.
According to the current momentum, it is possible to complete the target of 5 million new energy vehicle sales in 2025 in 2022, which fully shows that the rapid development of new energy vehicles in China far exceeds expectations.
New forces open up a new pattern
Looking back at the development of new energy vehicles in the past year, while lamenting its rapid development, the biggest surprise is the rapid development of new car-making forces. The first is reflected in sales. Statistics from the China Automobile Association show that in the first 11 months of 2021, the sales volume of major new forces has reached 81.1%, an increase of 226.3% year-on-year; the concentration has reached 3.5%, an increase of 2.3% year-on-year. The new car-making forces represented by Weilai, Ideal, Xiaopeng and Nezha are constantly improving their sales volume, playing a "catfish effect" in the Chinese car market, and this influence continues to spread to overseas markets. According to statistics from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in November 2021, the export of new energy vehicles reached 37,000 units, and the growth contribution reached 32.9%. And most of them are exported to europe and other areas where the automobile industry is developed.
Looking forward to 2022, the head of the new forces will expect better sales results on the basis of this year. This is mainly due to the continuous growth of sales, new forces enterprises will launch more models, build a more complete charging service and marketing, after-sales service network, the brand effect can continue to expand, sales will continue to increase. At the same time, millet, niuchuang, light orange era, box car and another group of new car manufacturers will also join the competition of new car-making forces, and compete with traditional car companies for market share, and in 2022, there may be more new forces entering the game of car-making. This market will also usher in more fierce competition. According to incomplete statistics, in 2022, all kinds of car companies will launch a total of 90 electrified models, new energy vehicle products usher in the product year, and new car-making forces will also face a more severe test in a hundred flowers.
It is worth noting that not only the new forces of car manufacturing, but also the traditional mainstream new energy vehicle brands will also usher in a more severe test. Judging from the various plans announced by many car companies, 2022 will be a big year for the products of new energy vehicles of joint ventures, which have established certain advantages in the brand and marketing network, once they start to attack the new energy vehicle market with rich products and models, they will undoubtedly become important competitors in this market, and the fierceness of this market will be foreseeable. However, from the current market performance, including new forces, the competitiveness of independent brands, including new forces, has been greatly improved, only to take the high-end model market as an example, all kinds of independent brand new energy models have successfully ranked among the top ten sales, becoming a new force that can compete with traditional high-end car brands. It is believed that with the continuous improvement of the competitiveness of independent brands and the continuous rise of market acceptance, independent brand new energy vehicles are expected to open up a larger market space in this fierce competition.
The hourglass market structure may come to an end
Although the production and sales of new energy vehicles are growing rapidly in 2021, there are still hidden worries behind them. Among them, what has aroused the attention of all parties is that the current consumption structure of new energy vehicles is mainly high-end and low-end, which is contrary to the spindle consumption structure of the traditional automobile market. As we all know, the mid-end consumer market is the main consumer market for many products, especially bulk consumer goods such as automobiles, and only by opening this market can we promote the rapid growth of sales. However, the current Chinese new energy vehicle consumption market is the first to achieve a breakthrough at both ends, while the mid-end consumer market is much inferior.
In the high-end market, represented by Tesla, Weilai and other brands, consumers' enthusiasm for high-end new energy vehicles is rising; in the low-end market, there are explosive models represented by Wuling Hongguang MINIIEV, which even exceeded 45,000 units in November last year, successfully ranking among the top two in the November car sales list. Under the influence of Hongguang MINIEV, other car companies have also launched A00-class models, triggering a low-end market consumption boom. In both the high-end and low-end markets, new energy vehicles have opened up the market and achieved good sales. However, in the mid-end market, which should have accounted for the highest proportion of sales, new energy vehicles have not achieved a big breakthrough for a long time, and the reason lies in the fact that the penetration of this market is the most difficult.
"The mid-range consumer market represented by A-class cars is the most difficult, and this market has stricter cost-effective requirements for vehicles, and at present, it is difficult for new energy vehicles to achieve breakthroughs in this field." As Xu Haidong, deputy chief engineer of the China Automobile Association, said, consumers are less sensitive to high-end new energy vehicles; and related models in the low-end market can also launch different driving ranges for different needs to balance the price of vehicles. In the mid-end market, consumers pay very much attention to the cost performance of vehicles, and these models cannot reduce the mileage too much, which makes it difficult for this part of the vehicle to compete with traditional fuel vehicles in terms of cost performance, so it is very difficult to open this market, which has also become a key factor in whether new energy vehicles can continue to maintain rapid growth after sales of 3 million vehicles.
In 2022, whether the hourglass market structure of new energy vehicles will be broken, the forecasts of all parties are different. Some analysts believe that in 2022, the high-end and low-end markets are still expected to continue to maintain a sales lead, both expected to reach 1.5 million to 2 million vehicles production and sales; some analysts believe that 2022, will be a year of rising sales in the mid-end new energy market. It is worth noting that in 2021, the proportion of sales of compact SUVs is rising, and in the mid-end consumer market, the sales of new energy vehicles are achieving a breakthrough, and this breakthrough is expected to become a driving factor for the sales of the mid-range new energy vehicle market in 2022.
Text: Wang Jinyu Editor: Guo Chen Layout: Liu Xiaoye