According to the "2022 New Energy Vehicle Promotion Subsidy Plan" (hereinafter referred to as the "Subsidy Plan") jointly issued by the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Science and Technology, and the Development and Reform Commission on December 31, 2021, in 2022, the subsidy standard for new energy vehicles will be reduced by 30% on the basis of 2021; urban buses, road passenger transport, taxi (including online car-hailing), sanitation, urban logistics distribution, postal express, civil aviation airports, and vehicles that meet the requirements in the field of public affairs of party and government organs. The subsidy standard will be reduced by 20% compared with 2021.
The Subsidy Scheme clarifies the subsidy standards for different types and different fields of vehicle products, which will be implemented from January 1, 2022. For example, in the subsidy scheme for new energy passenger vehicles (non-public domain), models with a cruising range greater than or equal to 300km and less than 400km are subsidized by 9,100 yuan, and models with a cruising range greater than or equal to 400km are subsidized by 12,600 yuan. Plug-in hybrid (including range extender) passenger car, pure electric mileage ≥50 (NEDC working conditions) or pure electric mileage ≥43 (WLTC working conditions) subsidies of 4800 yuan.
In addition, the Subsidy Program also stipulates the subsidy scheme for new energy buses and new energy trucks in the non-public sector, as well as the subsidy programs for new energy passenger cars, new energy buses and new energy trucks in the field of public transportation.
It is understood that the "Subsidy Scheme" will be terminated on December 31, 2022, and vehicles licensed after December 31, 2022 will no longer be subsidized. This means that 2022 will be the last year of the implementation of the new energy subsidy policy.
Although the subsidy decline has an impact on the terminal market, many industry insiders said that the new energy vehicle market has shifted from policy-driven to market-driven, and the impact of subsidy decline on the overall market growth of new energy vehicles is limited.
Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the National Passenger Vehicle Market Information Joint Association, told reporters: "The subsidy decline of 30% will have a certain impact on the growth rate of new energy vehicles, especially the annual subsidy scale is capped at about 2 million vehicles, in fact, the scale is significantly reduced compared with last year, whether it is the amount of subsidized bicycles or the total amount, it is in a relatively low state." Therefore, car companies are facing the challenges of the post-subsidy era, and they will inevitably adjust their prices. ”
On January 1, 2022, Cui Dongshu said on social media that he judged that the sales of new energy passenger cars expected in 2022 to be 4.8 million units should now be adjusted to more than 5.5 million units, and the penetration rate of new energy passenger cars will reach about 25%. New energy vehicles are expected to exceed 6 million units, and the penetration rate of new energy vehicles is about 22%. With the significant increase in domestic consumers' recognition of the new energy market and the stability of policy subsidies, it is bound to promote the surge in China's total sales of new energy vehicles in 2022 and continue to maintain the leading position of more than 50% of the world's super share.
The relevant person in charge of WM Motor also believes: "In fact, the decline in subsidies for new energy vehicles did not start in 2021, and has been in a state of decline in the past few years, but from a realistic point of view, the overall sales of new energy vehicles in 2019 fell slightly by 4%; the overall sales volume increased by 10% in 2020;
As of November, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in 2021 has doubled compared with 2020, and it can be seen that the decline in subsidies and the growth trend of sales over the years can be seen that the impact of subsidies on the new energy vehicle market is not large, and growth has become a major trend. ”