Per reporter: Sun Tongtong
The hour hand is set to 2022, and the subsidy policy for new energy vehicles has opened the countdown to a complete exit.
According to the requirements of the "2022 New Energy Vehicle Promotion Subsidy Plan" (hereinafter referred to as the "Subsidy Plan") jointly issued by the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Science and Technology, and the Development and Reform Commission, from January 1, 2022, the subsidy standard for new energy vehicles will be reduced by 30% on the basis of 2021, and vehicles licensed after December 31, 2022 will no longer be subsidized. This means that 2022 will be the last year of the implementation of the new energy subsidy policy.
A stone stirs up a thousand layers of waves. A few days ago, the "Daily Economic News" reporter visited the terminal market and found that before the subsidy declined, a large number of consumers came to the store to consult new energy models, and even there was a "rush to buy", and the brand's in-store exhibition cars had been sold out. At the same time, in response to the regressive subsidy policy in 2022, many car companies will clearly increase the price of their new energy models, and some brands will bear the subsidy price difference for consumers for a limited time "out of their own pockets", and various measures have also pushed up the "rush" boom of new energy vehicles.
The industry generally believes that the subsidy decline in 2022 is in line with market expectations, and the new energy vehicle market will usher in explosive growth this year, and the overall sales volume is expected to exceed 6 million.
However, it is worth noting that in the post-subsidy era, new energy vehicles will be completely marketized, market competition will be more sufficient, and many entrants can only survive for a long time if they continue to cultivate their internal strength, launch high-quality products with stronger competitiveness, reduce costs and increase efficiency.
Some car companies have increased their prices by 20,000, and some car companies have "paid for themselves"
As early as before the introduction of the "subsidy plan", Tesla has said that it will increase the price of its models. At that time, Tesla's official website in China showed that the price of the domestic Model 3 and Model Y rear-wheel drive version models was raised by 4752 yuan, and the price of the two models after subsidies was about 255,700 yuan and 280,800 yuan respectively, and the order users were expected to pick up the car in the first quarter of 2022.
After the introduction of the "subsidy plan", Tesla once again raised the price, and the current price of the domestic Model 3 and Model Y rear-wheel drive versions was 265,700 yuan and 301,800 yuan, up 10,000 yuan and 21,000 yuan respectively.
"[Our] latest price increase has nothing to do with subsidies, mainly because of the price increase of raw materials. Power battery suppliers have also been raising prices, leading to higher vehicle costs. It is difficult to say whether Tesla models will increase in price in the future. A Tesla salesman told reporters.
Image source: Photo by reporter Sun Tongtong
Earlier, the sales staff of GAC Aean sent a signal to reporters that they wanted to buy quickly. According to him, from January 1, 2022, Aean LX will increase the price by 4,000 yuan, and it is best to place an order as soon as possible if it is determined to buy a car.
In order to cope with the psychological gap caused by the subsidy decline to consumers, many car companies have taken "out-of-pocket" measures to survive the first few months of the subsidy decline.
"From January 4 to February 10, we launched the 'Subsidy Juhui Package', which will bear the subsidy difference of 5400 yuan for users for the 2022 national subsidy decline." A sales staff member of a Feifan automobile (i.e. R car) in Shanghai told reporters.
Xiaopeng Automobile sales staff also made it clear to reporters that after the subsidy declines in 2022, Xiaopeng Automobile will increase its price. A few days ago, in response to the national subsidy, Xiaopeng Automobile officially also launched a limited-time insurance policy, users can lock in the subsidy in 2021 before 24:00 on January 10, 2022, and the decline part is borne by Xiaopeng Automobile. From January 11, 2022, Xiaopeng Automobile will adjust the price system, and the specific content will be subject to the notice.
Image source: Per reporter Li Xing photographed (data map)
Since models of more than 300,000 yuan are not covered by subsidies, from 2020, ideal cars have begun to bear the difference in subsidies. However, the ideal ONE also has the tendency of preferential contraction. According to its official APP, from February 1, Ideal Auto will cancel the rights and interests of the first owner of the three electric and extended range system lifetime warranty, adjusted to 8 years or 120,000 kilometers.
In addition, FAW-Volkswagen has also launched an insurance policy, that is, before February 28 this year, the purchase of FAW-Volkswagen ID.CROZZ can still enjoy the subsidy policy for new energy vehicles in 2021.
"In 2022, the subsidy for new energy vehicles will decline by 30%, which will have a certain impact on the growth rate of new energy vehicles, and car companies are facing the challenges of the post-subsidy era and will inevitably adjust prices." Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the National Passenger Car Market Information Joint Association, told reporters.
Some brands have limited time insulation to continue the "rush" boom
It is worth noting that the Subsidy Plan clarifies the subsidy standards for different types and different fields of vehicle products. For example, in the subsidy scheme for new energy passenger cars (non-public domain), models with a cruising range greater than or equal to 300km and less than 400km are subsidized by 9,100 yuan, and models with a cruising range greater than or equal to 400km are subsidized by 12,600 yuan. Plug-in hybrid (including range extender) passenger car, pure electric mileage ≥50 (NEDC working conditions) or pure electric mileage ≥43 (WLTC working conditions) subsidies of 4800 yuan.
Consumers and dealers have long expected subsidies to decline, a large number of consumers rushed to buy new energy vehicles on the "eve" of the decline, coupled with the shortage of chips, the supply of vehicles is already tight, for a time the market appeared "a car is difficult to find" grand situation, and even the brand 4S store exhibition car has been sold out.
Previously, the reporter saw at the Weima Automobile store in Beijing Hopson Hui Mall that the only remaining exhibition car in the store, the WMAR W6, was also labeled "This car has been sold". The store's sales staff said that there are no vehicles available for sale in the store.
Image source: Per reporter Huang Xinxu photographed (data map)
"Affected by the decline of subsidies in 2022, our sales volume is very hot during this period, and most models have been suspended for orders, including G3 460G, P5 460 series, P7 480 all series These models can not be ordered now." Because of the lack of battery supply, production can not come, many stores have even sold out of the exhibition car, there is really no car, we are also very worried. A Xiaopeng Automobile sales staff in Shanghai told reporters that in addition to stopping booking models, the current model that can accept orders is generally picked up in 8 to 9 weeks.
Although the decline has begun, driven by the time-limited insulation policy, the sales of some brands still remain hot, and the purchase enthusiasm of consumers has also been stimulated to a certain extent. The above-mentioned Feifan automobile sales staff said that after the insurance policy came out, many consumers were indeed moved, and they expressed their willingness to consider accelerating the "getting on the car".
"I originally planned to buy a pure electric car at the end of the year, comparing Tesla and Xiaopeng, but now Tesla has risen a lot, Xiaopeng has not increased the price here, and I want to book it before the 10th." A consumer who came to see the car told reporters.
However, car buyers without rigid demand generally remain on the sidelines. Many consumers said that they are not in a hurry to buy new energy vehicles before the problems of battery life anxiety and charging difficulties are not well solved.
Image source: Visual China
The impact of subsidy decline on the market is limited
"In order to offset the impact of the decline in subsidies, BYD has taken a variety of measures. For example, mastering the core technology as the foundation, improving the technical level of the whole vehicle, so that we have real international competitiveness in some core technologies, to provide consumers with stronger performance, more value-added products, so as to expand the new energy vehicle market, accelerate the speed of popularization. In addition, giving full play to the cost and price advantages, BYD has been prepared to anticipate and cope with the decline of subsidies, and reduce costs through the commercial promotion scale and technical means of new energy vehicles, such as annual sales of 1 million vehicles, cost reduction of 20% to 30%, offset by subsidies. The relevant person in charge of BYD told reporters that although the subsidy has declined, the state has also helped the development of new energy vehicles through other means, such as vigorously promoting the construction of charging facilities, unlimited purchase policies, and formulating carbon quota management measures.
Industry analysts said that the new energy vehicle market has shifted from policy-driven to market-driven, and the impact of subsidy decline on the overall market growth of new energy vehicles is limited.
In fact, the decline in subsidies for new energy vehicles did not start in 2021, and has been in a state of decline in the past few years, but from a realistic point of view, the overall sales of new energy vehicles in 2019 fell slightly by 4%; the overall sales volume in 2020 increased by 10%; and as of November, the sales of new energy vehicles in 2021 have doubled compared with 2020.
"After the subsidy for new energy vehicles declines, the overall price of the new energy vehicle market will fluctuate briefly but will quickly return to normal." Based on the decline in new energy subsidies and the growth trend of sales over the years, it can be seen that the impact of subsidies on the new energy vehicle market is short-lived, and the growth is still a major trend. The relevant person in charge of WM Motor believes that the "market-oriented" trend caused by the decline in subsidies can force the accelerated iteration of China's new energy automobile industry technology, and force the participants to provide better mass production products to enhance the competitiveness of the terminal, and ultimately benefit the majority of users.
"Reducing subsidies will weaken the price system differences, without subsidies, the market will give full play to its role, through the survival of the fittest, in the competition to improve the overall level." From the orders taken over this year, we can see that the current new energy vehicle market is growing very fast, and it will obviously exceed the expectation of 'penetration rate of about 20% by 2025' proposed in the 14th Five-Year Plan. The relevant person in charge of BYD said.
Feifan Automobile also believes that the new energy vehicle market has shifted from policy-driven to market-driven, and the impact of subsidy decline on new energy vehicle consumption is limited.
Sales are expected to exceed 6 million units this year?
As in 2021, the 2022 new energy vehicle subsidy policy notice was released on the eve of implementation, and no transition period was set. However, the "Subsidy Plan" has lifted the limit on the number of subsidized vehicles, and the previous document has repeatedly mentioned that "in principle, the annual subsidy scale is capped at about 2 million vehicles", as long as the vehicles licensed before December 31, 2022 are subsidized, according to the policy design, 2022 is the last year of the implementation of the new energy vehicle subsidy policy.
"With the significant increase in the scale of new energy vehicles, the cost reduction capacity driven by the significant increase in the scale of new energy vehicles has increased, so the increase in new energy vehicles at the end of 2022 is very strong." Originally expected to sell 4.8 million new energy passenger cars in 2022, it should now be adjusted to more than 5.5 million units, and the penetration rate of new energy passenger cars will reach about 25%. New energy vehicles are expected to exceed 6 million, and the penetration rate of new energy vehicles is about 22%. With the significant increase in domestic consumers' recognition of the new energy market and the stability of policy subsidies, it is bound to promote the surge in China's total sales of new energy vehicles in 2022 and continue to maintain the leading position of more than 50% of the world's super share. Cui Dongshu said.
Shengang Securities believes that some car companies have taken countermeasures such as price increases and price differences, and the short-term terminal sales price may fluctuate, but it will be stable for a long time. In addition, since there are not many changes in the subsidy for short-range vehicles, the performance of subsequent A00-A-class vehicles may be more worth looking forward to. Among them, the A-segment car market is expected to contribute considerable increments to the increase in the penetration rate of electric vehicles.
Image source: Photo by reporter Li Shuo (data map)
At present, China's new energy vehicle consumption market has always shown a "dumbbell" structure, and sales are concentrated in the markets at one high and one low. Some people believe that the cancellation of subsidies may make consumption turn to the real main market, which will gradually change the consumption structure to the olive type, the sales volume of one high and one low will gradually decrease, and the main market between 100,000 and 200,000 yuan may have explosive growth.
"The impact of this decline on terminal demand is limited, and the subsidy decline will increase the cost of car purchase for consumers, but from the market performance of 2020 to the present, Wuling Hongguang MINIEV and Ideal ONE, which do not enjoy subsidies, also have strong sales, and we believe that subsidies are no longer the main consideration of car owners when buying cars, and models with high cost performance and strong product strength are more easily recognized." Dongxing Securities believes that as car companies launch more high-quality models, consumers pay attention to the driving experience and body configuration of new energy vehicles, and the marketization trend will continue to strengthen.
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities believes that there are two points in the new energy subsidy policy in 2022 that slightly exceed expectations: first, the upper limit of the annual subsidy of 2 million vehicles has been opened, and the overall subsidy scale has been increased; at the same time, the current subsidy technical indicators are unchanged to ensure the continuity of product development, and more new energy vehicle revenue subsidies are also allowed. Now that the new energy vehicle market has shifted from policy-driven to market-driven, the launch of excellent models is the main factor in sales growth, and it is expected that China's new energy vehicle sales will reach 5.28 million units in 2022.
However, since December 2021, the new energy sector of the capital market has experienced a high correction. Entering 2022, the sector continues to decline, causing many investors to worry. According to Wind data, as of January 6, in three trading days, last year's "fire track" new energy sector fell by 6.17%.
"The short-term adjustment of the new energy sector, on the one hand, is because the overall rise of the early plate is a lot, and whether it is institutions or other funds, the proportion of positions in this sector is relatively high, and it is normal to have a pullback; on the other hand, new energy, as an emerging industry, fluctuates greatly in the process of its own development, and there are often some disturbance factors at different stages." Zhao Jian, equity fund manager of Huitianfu environmental protection industry, thinks.
Recently, some disturbance factors have also triggered concerns in the capital market, such as concerns about the decline in demand caused by the re-decline of subsidies for new energy vehicles, and concerns that the pace of photovoltaic installations may slow down in 2022. In addition, at the macro level, the market's expectations for the Fed to raise interest rates have heated up, the recent US Treasury yields have continued to rise, and the US stock technology stocks have pulled back, which has also suppressed the performance of the A-share growth sector to a certain extent.
Zhao Jian believes that the short-term fluctuations of the new energy sector will not change the long-term trend of improvement, looking forward to 2022, the new energy vehicle sector will still have more opportunities, short-term adjustment or will provide a better time to get on the train.
Reporter: Sun Tongtong
Editor: Pei Jianru
Vision: Cai Peijun
Typography: Pei Jianru Wang Shujie
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