Header image source | Future Automotive Daily
There are no winners in the tide of price increases.
Seeing the news that the ideal ONE price increased by more than 10,000, Wang Cheng suddenly felt relieved. This year's Spring Festival, with his identity upgraded to a grandfather, he also replaced the family's car iteration with a six-seat ideal ONE. However, not long after picking up the car, when the official information of the new car L9 was sent out one after another, he felt some regrets because he "almost booked a new model".
Now, with the rise in car prices, some regrets in Wang Cheng's heart have also been replaced by happiness. Failing to become what everyone calls a "waiting party", he feels that it is really rare in the current situation full of changes.
The entire car market has not left much buffer for the market. First tesla with a wednesday continuous rise in the rhythm of a new round of price increases, and then, in addition to the weilai model on sale has no price increase plan, just a few weeks, ideal, Xiaopeng, BYD, Weima and other major new energy vehicle companies, almost all joined the current round of price increases.
There are cases of Tesla's frequent price adjustments in the front, when the team of price increases is getting larger and larger, many car owners suddenly realize that the original widely circulated among car owners, "early buy early enjoyment, late buy discount" seems to have suddenly invalidated. A large number of intended car owners are "entangled online", they are eager to get an accurate answer, afraid that if they are one step later, they will spend thousands or even tens of thousands of yuan to buy a car.
The gap period before the price increase usually chooses the weekend, which seems to leave enough time for users to consider, but there is not much time left for them. A new force salesman found that for those who were originally entangled in the delay in placing orders, the news of price increases was the last straw that led to orders.
Recently, it has also become the busiest time for sales, in addition to being crowded with test drives, they also have to squeeze out as much energy as possible to persuade the still wavering "slipped through the net" owners and promote new orders.
Standing in the traditional sense of the sales off-season, the price increase is like a needle catalyst, which seems to make the next order volume become considerable. But behind the superficial prosperity, the hidden worries make it difficult for car companies to say happy, and there is no real winner in the tide of price increases.
The price increase counted down 48 hours, and the car was sold until there was no inventory
"If you want to buy a car these two days, feel free to contact me, 24 hours online." After receiving the news of the price increase, salesmen almost all chose to turn on the all-day mode to fight this hard battle. In addition to quickly taking down the owners who are only one foot away from the door to buy a car, they also want to spread the news of the price increase to as many people as possible.
Li Yu once consulted the information of Xiaopeng P7 when he was hanging out in offline stores, but because there was no urgent demand for cars, the car purchase plan has been shelved. Just the weekend before Xiaopeng's price increase, he received a high-density phone bombardment that he had never had before, and in two days, he received 4 calls from salespeople. "The price is about to rise, you can lock the price before the price increase by paying the deposit in advance, and there is a three-day regret period."
"A feeling that you don't give up if you don't take it down." When Xie Fang told Xiaopeng Shanghai's sales staff that because of his car purchase index in Beijing, he could not place an order for the time being. A day later, she received a sales call from Beijing.
In order to seize the window period before the price increase, the sales staff have done everything in their power to collect orders. And come up with different types of words to make potential consumers have a stronger perception.
"The ideal horse price increase, an Apple 13 top match", "two days late, spend 20,000 more", in addition to these basic words, but also with almost uninterrupted 1-2 orders per hour of internal order system screenshots, to potential car owners to put more group pressure. In the circle of friends of sales, the store is full of people, and the amount of "lock orders" cannot be filled on a screen.
In order to facilitate orders, many stores have also launched car booking gifts worth thousands of yuan, including headrests, foot pads, maintenance and so on.
Xiaopeng Automobile sales staff circle of friends Source: Network
These operations have indeed produced an effect, and many intended car owners have rushed to urgently "lock orders" before the price increase. An ideal ONE owner learned the news in the morning and placed an order in the afternoon, "equivalent to saving a set of film money." ”
Under the not small price increase, hesitation and entanglement also seem to be left behind.
A Xiaopeng P5 owner described in detail on the social platform the tangled mental journey of his booking, after a year of time, from the original cancellation of the order, to the final determination to place an order, the news of the price increase helped him make a ruling between "buy" or "not buy". "I understand that many new energy models have already increased in price, and Xiaopeng may also rise again."
Similar situations are not uncommon. Sales also reaped good results, with someone taking 16 orders in one day, and some of the hot-selling models were out of stock even on Saturdays. By Sunday, many versions of the three models that Xiaopeng was selling were shown on the official website that they were out of stock. A salesperson explained that because many car owners have only paid the intention to pay the money and have not signed the contract, "when the contract is signed almost, the production capacity can be planned, and the inventory will be updated." ”
Different from the direct price increase of car companies under the direct operation model, traditional dealers have adopted a more obscure price increase method.
"It has long been in the closing price (reducing the preferential margin)," Liu Fan, a dealer of the joint venture brand, told Future Auto Daily that compared with last year, the preferential margin of his brand has decreased by an average of 3,000 yuan, "not as strong as the new forces."
In his view, "because the sale of less loss is also less, the previous rebate came back, the current report is very good." At this stage, it seems that the impact is not large, but "the back will be miserable."
In his previous experience, the price is still a sensitive factor for consumers, and the price increase is bound to affect sales, "the less you sell, you can't get the rebate of the manufacturer, you can only lose money if you can't get the rebate, and the more selling points may be able to make up for the point." ”
The price increase letter flew wildly, and car companies and suppliers began to tug-of-war
Putting aside the superficial hilarity, from the scale of car companies involved in this price increase, and Tesla, which has always been priced according to cost, can rise three times in a week, it is not difficult to see that this time car companies have reached a moment when they have to rise.
Behind this, the rise and fall of various raw materials is so large and the rise is so fierce that the cost resistance of new energy vehicle companies is almost exhausted. This also has a recent scene, ideal car founder Li Xiang first lamented that "the increase in battery costs in the second quarter is very outrageous", and when he participated in the event a few days later, he said that "lithium carbonate will no longer be calculated according to cost like oil.".
As the head enterprise in the current new car, with reference to the gross profit margin of Tesla, Weilai and Xiaopeng, in 2021, the gross profit margin of the three bicycles will be 30.6%, 20.1% and 11.5%, respectively, according to the average unit price of 300,000, 400,000 and 250,000 yuan, the gross profit space is about 90,000, 80,000 and less than 30,000, respectively.
However, the increase in battery costs alone accounts for a considerable proportion of the gross profit of bicycles. Taking high-nickel power batteries as an example, only the nickel price rose from 50,000 US dollars / ton to 100,000 US dollars / ton, the cost of Model 3 bicycles rose to nearly 28,000 yuan, Weilai EC6 rose by more than 25,000 yuan, and Xiaopeng P7 was nearly 30,000 yuan.
For price-sensitive A0-class models, the price increase of raw materials has directly plunged car companies into the dilemma of "selling one and losing one". On February 14, the popular Euler black and white cat model announced that it would temporarily stop taking orders. Dong Yudong, CEO of Great Wall Euler, once explained that after the sharp rise in raw materials in 2022, the loss of black cats alone exceeded 10,000 yuan.
"The premium of the A00 model will be very low, the main amount, the battery pack basically accounts for most of the cost," said Hu Yu, an engineer at a power battery manufacturer, "the profit of high-end products will be reserved more sufficiently, and the battery price will account for a smaller impact." ”
Superimposed supply and demand shortage, price increase letters from suppliers have poured in, the former discourse power has also been reversed, and the pressure has also come to the side of car companies.
"Recently (price increase letter) a lot", Ren Qiu, who is a procurement in new energy vehicle companies, feels very deeply, in addition to batteries, the current supply relationship slightly eased the price of chips is still high.
In Ren Qiu's view, "the price increase is not a brain shot, it needs to go through a series of calculations." "But there are not many options left for car companies. He said that if non-core suppliers can appropriately reduce prices or find second supplies, then when the core suppliers send a price increase letter, "although they will talk symbolically, they will generally accept it."
Continue to trace upwards, power battery companies, which account for a considerable proportion of the manufacturing cost of electric vehicles, are also under the pressure of price increases from raw material manufacturers.
"If it weren't for the compression into profit margins, we wouldn't have proposed price increases to our customers." Hu Yu told future auto daily that usually battery manufacturers will sign a contract after the customer is fixed, which contains a rough price, "unless the price of (upstream suppliers) we really can't afford, otherwise the price given to the customer will definitely be controlled within the scope of the contract." ”
The price increase of battery raw materials is almost all-round. The prices of lithium, nickel and cobalt, the three most critical metals, have risen all the way. According to the monitoring of the commodity data business agency, as of March 24, the comprehensive quotation of the battery-grade lithium carbonate market was 490,000 yuan - 510,000 yuan / ton, an increase of nearly 10 times year-on-year.
"Not only lithium carbonate, including battery-level electrolytes, pvdf (lithium battery auxiliary materials) are basically increasing prices," Hu Yu told Future Automotive Daily.
One of the sources of lithium salt lake Source: OFweek
However, for power battery manufacturers and car companies, if they want to negotiate a price, the two sides still need to go through a difficult negotiation process. "Customers don't think we're going to go up as much as we say." Hu Yu said that car companies usually need suppliers to provide specific models and use exact data and information to assess the impact of rising raw materials, "but because it involves core issues such as cost control of battery manufacturers, we are actually not willing to give." ”
Tug-of-war is inevitable, but for most car companies, the result is usually only acceptable. "Now the market demand is on the strong side, and everyone's supply is not very sufficient at present, so even if it is forced, it can only be accepted." In Hu Yu's view, "We take the goods of upstream suppliers as well. ”
Chen He, a secondary market researcher, also found a change in wind direction. Before 2020, the contract payment cycle of downstream enterprises and raw material suppliers is usually about 6 months, which means that customers can pick up the goods first and then pay, and the bad debt risk is also borne by the upstream manufacturers. But from mid-2021, things have changed.
"Only downstream enterprises with high reputation and strong voice can barely achieve one-handed delivery." For small and medium-sized downstream enterprises, they need to pay for the goods first, and then gradually pick up the goods, and even face the risk of insufficient supply. ”
Even if you can pick up the goods on time, there is no guarantee that you will be foolproof. Due to the high price of raw materials, "some upstream companies in order to save costs, the ratio of supply will change, reflected in the performance side will have a certain impact", nevertheless, battery manufacturers can only accept, "otherwise it will not be possible to produce batteries", Hu Yu added.
(The interviewees in this article are pseudonyms)
The author | Ding unique
Edit the | Wang Yan