Produced by | Tiger sniff car group
Author | Wang Xiaoyu
100,000 vehicles, what does it mean for the new forces?
On January 1, 2022, the new car-making forces successively announced their cumulative sales for December 2021 and the whole year. In terms of deliveries in December, Xiaopeng Motors continued to secure the championship position with a record of 16,000 units. It was followed by Ideal car with 14,087 units and NIO with 10,489 units.
In the 2021 annual delivery ranking, NIO ranked second with 91,000 units, and Ideal Automobile ranked third with 90,000 vehicles. Xiaopeng Automobile ranked first with a figure of 98,000 units, just one step away from the annual delivery of 100,000 vehicles.
2021 closes, but the road in 2022 is still full of thorns.
On the last day of 2021, the four ministries and commissions jointly issued the "Notice on the Financial Subsidy Policy for the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles in 2022", which clarified that from January 1, 2022, the subsidy standard for new energy vehicles will be reduced by 30% on the basis of 2021. Compared with the established facts of subsidies, the price increase of raw materials for power batteries and the supply of chips are still the sword of Damocles hanging over the head of new energy vehicles.
First, who can preemptively cross the mark of 100,000 vehicles sold annually?
Judging from the sales volume in December, the monthly delivery volume of "PinGuan" Xiaopeng Automobile reached a high of 16,000 units, an increase of 181% year-on-year.
In second place, Ideal Cars delivered 14,087 Ideal ONEs, up 130.0% from December 2020. In third place was NIO, delivering 10,489 new vehicles, up 49.7% year-on-year. The fourth, fifth and sixth places are Nezha Automobile, Weima Automobile and Zero Run Automobile. Then there are the Extreme Krypton and Arantu cars.
In the 2021 annual delivery volume, Xiaopeng Automobile is also the first, and it is also the closest to the annual delivery of 100,000 vehicles. Weilai, which ranks second, is still far from the threshold of 100,000 vehicles, and there is still a gap of more than 8,500 vehicles.
The head company continues to "sell big", and the "little brothers" also follow the spicy.
Focusing on the low-end models of Nezha Automobile, Nezha Automobile delivered 10,127 new cars in December, an increase of 236% year-on-year, and sold more than 10,000 yuan in consecutive months. Nezha Automobile delivered a total of 69,674 units in 2021, an increase of 362% year-on-year. According to official data, in 2021, among the users of Nezha Automobile, users from first-tier, new first-tier and second-tier cities accounted for about 64% - which means that nearly 40% of Nezha Automobile's users are from third-, fourth- and fifth-tier cities, or sinking markets.
Another noteworthy thing is that Lantu Automobile and Ji Kr, two high-end new energy sub-brands of traditional car companies, both exceeded the 3,000-unit performance in December. Although the numbers are not large, for new brands that have only been established for one or two years and have just been delivered for a few months, the deeper meaning is to run through the process, and the next step is to continue to expand production capacity and sales channels.
"Sales volume is a result, or look at the construction of system competitiveness." Ma Lin, head of corporate communications at NIO, said after the release of the 2021 delivery data. In fact, for all the new car-making forces, crossing the threshold of 100,000 vehicles per year means that the ability of the new forces from product research and development to the service system has been well verified. With 100,000 vehicles, there are 200,000, 1 million vehicles.
As far as Weilai is concerned, at least in the charging and replacing service system, it has achieved stage achievements. On January 1, Weilai's official Weibo released a message that in 2021, 505 new supercharge stations and 2598 supercharge piles will be added; 359 new destination charging stations and 1984 destination charging piles will be added; 605 new substations will be added, of which 160 will be high-speed substations; and 90,000+ third-party charging piles will be newly connected.
As for Xiaopeng Motors, as of the end of November 2021, Xiaopeng Motors has rolled out 661 brand supercharging stations across the country, covering 228 cities, and operates 311 sales stores nationwide, covering 121 cities.
These infrastructures are also preparing for the "product war" in 2022. Taking NIO as an example, in addition to the three ES8/ES6/EC6 cars on sale, NIO ET7 and ET5 will start delivery this year. Xiaopeng Automobile's medium and large SUV model G9 will also be mass-produced this year. The X01 (internal code name) of The Ideal Car, which has been hidden for a long time, and the electric MPV model "Dreamer" of Lantu will also enter the market this year.
Of course, this is still just the planning of the camp of new car-making forces. Luxury brands led by BMW and independent brands such as Great Wall Motors and Changan Automobile will launch blockbuster new energy models in 2022.
Second, after the subsidy declines, can the sales increase be sustained?
However, there will be some changes in new energy policies.
This year's new energy vehicle subsidy standards are clear, and the slope will be reduced by 30% on the basis of 2021.
On December 31, 2021, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Science and Technology, and the National Development and Reform Commission issued a notice on the financial subsidy policy for the promotion and application of new energy vehicles in 2022: in 2022, the subsidy standard for new energy vehicles will be reduced by 30% on the basis of 2021; the subsidy standard for urban buses, road passenger transport, taxi (including online car-hailing), sanitation, urban logistics and distribution, postal express, civil aviation airports and vehicles in the official field of party and government organs will be reduced by 20% on the basis of 2021.
This Notice will be implemented from January 1, 2022.
Subsidy decline, is it good or bad?
Some industry insiders analyzed: "The technical threshold of subsidies has forced enterprises to lay out higher-level products, and at the same time, higher-level products are less affected by subsidy decline." "These analyses are from the perspective of the market and industry, and the decline in subsidies is of course conducive to the healthy development of the new energy automobile industry." But for ordinary consumers, it is an indisputable fact that buying electric vehicles will become more and more expensive in 2022.
On the day of the release of the policy, Tesla announced on its official website that the domestic Model 3 rear-wheel drive version rose from 255,652 yuan to 265,652 yuan, an increase in price of 10,000 yuan; the starting price of the domestic Model Y rear-wheel drive version was raised from 280,752 yuan to 301,840 yuan, an increase of about 21,100 yuan.
It is worth noting that the price of the Model Y rear-wheel drive version after the price increase exceeds 300,000 yuan and no longer enjoys subsidies for new energy vehicles. This means that in the entire Tesla product series, only the Model 3 rear-wheel drive version can enjoy new energy vehicle subsidies.
The same product, overnight is 10,000 or 20,000 yuan, and no one can go to the heart. To this end, new energy vehicle companies such as Xiaopeng Automobile and Weilai Automobile have introduced time-limited price insurance policies.
Xiaopeng Automobile responded to Tiger Sniff: "For Xiaopeng Automobile products, the subsidy decline is 4,300-5,900 yuan. In the short term, it will still have a certain impact on sales. Considering the high enthusiasm of consumers to buy cars before the Spring Festival, Xiaopeng Automobile has also launched a 'limited-time insurance policy', and when the order to pay the deposit is completed from January 1, 2022 to January 10, 2022, it can still enjoy the retail price after the national comprehensive subsidy in 2021, and the difference between the slope will be borne by Xiaopeng Company, which is also the price guarantee that Xiaopeng Automobile can provide for consumers who choose to buy smart cars in the context of subsidy decline. ”
Also on the day of the release of the policy, WEILAI Automobile also released the 2022 car purchase subsidy plan, saying that users who paid a deposit to purchase ES8, ES6 and EC6 before December 31, 2021 (inclusive), and who pre-marketed on March 31, 2022, can still enjoy subsidies in accordance with the 2021 national subsidy standards, and the difference will be borne by WEILAI; Xiaopeng Automobile said that it will launch a "limited-time insurance policy" from January 1 to January 10, 2022. Consumers who complete the deposit payment during the above period can enjoy the comprehensive subsidy and the recommended retail price will remain unchanged from 2021.
"Even if the price of new energy vehicles increases, it is a short-term phenomenon." Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the Association, believes that "with the accelerated transformation of car companies to layout new energy and continuous technological progress, car companies want to maintain vehicle competitiveness, and price decline will become a long-term trend." However, in the short term, car companies still have to face the pressure brought by the post-subsidy era. ”
Subsidy decline is an established fact, but there is still more uncertainty in the new energy automobile industry in 2022.
For example, in terms of power batteries. According to Guotai Junan Securities, the price of lithium battery raw materials per ton increased by 100,000 yuan, and the cost of parts for car companies will increase by about 4,000 yuan / vehicle. According to third-party agency data, the current price of battery-grade lithium carbonate reached 267,000 yuan per ton, and the price of lithium carbonate four months ago was less than 95,000 yuan per ton. Based on this calculation, the cost of bicycle parts of car companies rose by 7,000 yuan in just 4 months.
According to the data of China Automobile Association, from January to November this year, the cumulative installed volume of power batteries in China was 128.3GWh, up 153.1% year-on-year. The surge in demand, unexpected by power battery manufacturers, has led to a shortage of power batteries on the supply side.
Second, affected by the chip shortage, the decline in production in the entire automotive industry is inevitable.
According to the latest data from AutoForecast Solutions, a global automotive consulting organization, as of December 19, the global automotive market has reduced production by 10.272 million vehicles this year due to lack of cores. Among them, China's auto market has reduced production by 1.982 million units. The industry generally believes that the chip problem will not be solved until the second half of 2022. China Automobile Center expects that by the third quarter, the supply of chips will be greatly alleviated. In addition, JPMorgan Chase also said that the chip supply situation may be fundamentally improved in the second half of 2022.
Finally, the price of insurance for new energy vehicles has also increased.
On December 27, the "Exclusive Clauses for Commercial Insurance for New Energy Vehicles of China Insurance Industry Association (Trial)" was officially launched, and all new energy vehicles must be insured with new energy vehicle insurance. After the introduction of the new policy, some media reported that the insurance cost of Tesla Model Y soared from 8278 yuan to more than 14,000 yuan, an increase of 80%. Tesla said that Tesla's increase in the national average is about 10%, while the premium of the high-performance version of the model is within 20% on the national average.
According to the "Explanation on the Adjustment of the Pure Risk Premium Table of the Benchmark Pure Risk Premium Table of The Exclusive Products of New Energy Vehicle Commercial Insurance" previously issued to property insurance companies by the China Association of Actuaries, the rise and fall of car insurance and the amplitude may also be related to the price of the car - new energy vehicle models below 250,000 yuan only fell and did not rise, and models above 250,000 yuan rose partially.
Write at the end
Subsidies decline, raw material prices rise, supply and demand imbalance, new energy vehicle insurance prices increase, the final result is that new energy vehicles are becoming more and more expensive.
Is it to silently "swallow" the bitter fruit left by the industry shock, or to pass on the impact of price fluctuations to consumers? On the first day of 2022, the decision-makers of car companies are faced with a dilemma.