Editor's note| it's been said lately: "My lord, times have changed. In these words, there is both a slight fear of change and a nostalgia for the glory of the past. The "golden period" of China's automotive industry is really too dazzling. Many people wonder whether the successful experiences of the past can continue to be reproduced in the future; many people are worried about whether the so-called trend that is currently raging should really keep up. Dylan Thomas said, "Don't walk gently into that good night," but we're in the middle of a Good Night, and it's time to get out. Auto Market Story launched a special plan "Out of the Good Night", this is the third part of the series, "Countermeasures for Subsidy Decline: Price Insuring, Price Increase or Self-Digestion?" 》。
"Pay a deposit of 2,000 yuan now, we will have an insurance policy, even if we pick up the car next year, we can also enjoy this year's subsidy standard." In a shopping mall in Beijing, Zhang Chen (pseudonym), a salesman at Weilai Automobile, tirelessly explained this policy to users, of course, his real idea is to hope to rush the performance in the last few days of 2021.
In 2022, the subsidy for new energy vehicles will decline by 30%, which is a major event that major car companies know. Regarding this matter, the subsidy notice for new energy vehicles issued in April 2020 is also very clear.
A store of Weilai Automobile exhibited cars | Car Market Story Photo
However, since the subsidy is about to decline, then the transmission to the consumer end, is it a price increase or no price increase? Some enterprises clearly responded: "Price increases are high-probability events, subsidies are ultimately to supply consumers, and enterprises will not bear this part of the cost." Of course, there are also companies that give solutions: "No price increases, the cost of the decline is digested by the enterprises themselves." ”
The new energy automobile industry has achieved great development, and its production and sales have ranked first in the world for many years, which is inseparable from a strong subsidy policy. Now, when subsidies are declining, car companies are making a final sprint, hoping to catch the last train.
However, behind the fight, some people are full of confidence, and some people are frightened.
1. Each has a strange trick to catch up with the last train of subsidies in 2021
The end of 2021 is like the bell after school, but it is like a sprinting horn. In the face of the countdown to the decline of new energy vehicle subsidies, car companies have made their own moves, hoping to catch the last train of new energy subsidies in 2021.
In April 2020, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Notice of the Four Ministries and Commissions on Improving the Financial Subsidy Policy for the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles", which pointed out that the subsidy standards for 2020-2022 will be reduced by 10%, 20% and 30% respectively on the basis of the previous year.
According to the subsidy requirements in 2021, pure electric vehicles with a price of no more than 300,000 yuan before the subsidy can enjoy subsidies: models with a cruising range of more than or equal to 300km and less than 400km are subsidized by 13,000 yuan, and models with a cruising range greater than or equal to 400km are subsidized by 18,000 yuan. In addition, plug-in hybrid passenger cars (including range extenders) can enjoy a subsidy of 0.68 million yuan.
According to the principle of subsidy standard decline, the amount of subsidies available in 2022 is 70% of the previous year. That is to say, in normal calculations, a car will reduce the subsidy by up to 5400 yuan.
"Insurance policy" is the most enthusiastic means for most car companies.
Roll-up | in a chery automobile store Car Market Story Photo
"As long as the order is placed before December 31, you can not only enjoy the right of priority delivery, but also enjoy the price before the subsidy declines in 2021." Chery new energy vehicle sales Zhong Min (pseudonym) specially introduced the quotation policy of small ants to the car market Story. "In order to alleviate consumers' concerns about price increases, we launched a small ant sweet powder price guarantee."
Weilai and Xiaopeng, the new car-making forces, have also launched insurance policies respectively. Zhang Chen told the car market that customers who place orders before the end of this year can enjoy the preferential policies in 2021 as long as they pick up the car before March 31 next year.
Xiaopeng's insurance policy is somewhat different. According to the introduction of Xiaopeng Automobile's sales staff, "Orders placed between January 1 and 10, 2022 can enjoy preferential treatment according to the subsidy standards in 2021." "The move is to attract users who plan to buy a car around the Spring Festival."
The respective promotional means of different enterprises | Car Market Story Photo
Cheshi Monogatari visited a number of corporate sales stores and found that most companies have launched different forms of insurance policies, and used New Year's Day, Spring Festival and other festivals to carry out marketing activities to obtain the last batch of customers.
Behind the price insurance policy is the sales pressure brought by the subsidy decline to new energy vehicles.
"Some time ago, the Tesla Model 3 rose in price once." Tesla sales staff told the car market Story that Tesla's cost department uniformly calculates the cost of the model, and finally determines the rise and fall of the model price. "The cost of subsidy decline next year should also be accounted for, reflected in the final price."
The exhibition car of a Tesla store | Car Market Story Photo
Car Market Story understands that in the case of subsidies declining, many car companies will have different price increases in 2022. Nezha automobile sales staff said, "The subsidy for new energy vehicles is the state supply to consumers, the subsidy is reduced, and our car price will increase accordingly." If you let the company make up for this difference, it will be a challenge for us for a long time. ”
Therefore, taking advantage of the opportunity of subsidies to decline, car companies also used sales means at the end of the year to set off a wave of car sales.
"The list of users who came to us this weekend to test drive is almost full." Weilai sales staff introduced to the car market Monogatari, "Recently, the customer flow in the store has increased a lot, which is related to some preferential policies launched by us at the end of the year, of course, it is also affected by the decline of subsidies." ”
In fact, since the fourth quarter of 2021, car companies have increased their preferential efforts to cope with the peak sales season at the end of the year. According to the latest data from the Association of Passenger Vehicles, since mid-December, the overall market discount rate of passenger cars in China has been about 11%, maintaining a high level.
2, the razor behind anxiety Who will be eliminated?
Under the background of subsidy decline, behind the fiery sales policies of various car companies, there are also hidden anxieties.
In 2022, the price increase of new energy vehicles will be a foregone conclusion, but the increase is different. According to Wang Min, an analyst in the automotive industry, "How big the increase depends on the cost digestion ability of enterprises and their attitude towards market share." ”
On the whole, the impact of subsidy decline on price-sensitive models will be relatively obvious, while the impact on models with higher prices will be very limited.
In the face of the problem of price increases, Polar Fox has clearly expressed its determination to "not increase prices". Gao Bin (pseudonym), a salesman at Jihu, told The Car Market Monogatari, "For this Polar Fox Alpha S (ARCFOX αS) priced at 280,000 yuan, the subsidy amount of more than 5,000 yuan will not bring too much cost pressure." ”
Of course, the reason for not increasing prices is that Polar Fox can digest the cost of subsidy decline. Gao Bin revealed to The Story of the Car Market that next year, the Polar Fox Alpha S (ARCFOX αS) battery will be replaced from the South Korean SK to the Ningde era. "According to the agreement signed at that time, the CATL battery will be about 8,000 yuan cheaper than south Korea's SK, so that we can make up for the gap in subsidy decline next year."
The exhibition car of a store of Jihu Automobile | Car Market Story Photo
Wang Junlin (pseudonym), a sales consultant for Changan New Energy Vehicles, is obviously frustrated. In the storefront he is responsible for selling, there is only one subsidized 2020 Model Ben E-Star that sells for 59,800. According to the current subsidy policy, Benben E-Star can enjoy a subsidy of 13,000 yuan, which accounts for 17.4% of its guidance price (74,800 yuan).
"Our car basically does not make money, after the subsidy declines, counting the cost, we only have the road to price increase." Wang Junlin told the car market that in the face of the decline of subsidies next year, he also felt sales pressure. "Our car does not support fast charging, the car pick-up cycle is relatively long, and the price increase will still be more sensitive to consumers."
In addition, this model also experienced a "disguised price increase" car storm not long ago, and its reputation has also been affected to a certain extent. "Although it is not profitable, in order to get more 'points', we will continue to sell this model." Wang Junlin said.
The marketing wall of a store of Changan Automobile | Car Market Story Photo
Even more embarrassing than a low-priced model like the Ben E-Star is the mid-range model. Liu Jin (pseudonym), an automobile circulation practitioner, pointed out that "models priced at 100,000-150,000 are very sensitive to subsidy decline." ”
According to Liu Jin, if the price of these low-end models rises by 5,000 yuan, it will directly affect the user's car purchase decision. "If you let the company bear this part of the subsidy decline cost, the sales volume of 10,000 vehicles, that is to increase the cost of about 50 million." If the price is directly increased, it may weaken its price competitiveness. ”
Wang Min believes that the issue of subsidy decline should be viewed from two aspects. For models with higher prices and competitiveness, their price sensitivity is low, and the impact of subsidy decline is very limited. For models with lower prices and lack of competitiveness, subsidies may become a booster for the survival of the fittest.
3, subsidies to leverage large industries can be when the achievement of retirement?
Subsidies for new energy vehicles have leveraged a large industry.
In order to support the development of new energy vehicles, the central government has subsidized new energy vehicles since 2009. So far, the subsidy period for new energy vehicles has been as long as 12 years.
In the past 12 years, the total subsidy fund for new energy vehicles in China has reached 147.8 billion yuan, and the number of vehicles covered by subsidies has reached about 1.916 million.
Of course, new energy vehicles have also had the problem of "cheating". In the face of the temptation of subsidies, some enterprises do not hesitate to take risks, do not focus on product technology investment, but try their best to defraud subsidies. In 2016, after large-scale state verification, Suzhou Jimxi, Suzhou Jinlong and other bus companies were notified and criticized for "cheating compensation". Among them, most enterprises have defrauded the amount of compensation up to about 1 billion yuan.
The original intention of the subsidy setting of new energy vehicles is to improve the technology of new energy vehicles, achieve scale effects, and cultivate a sound new energy vehicle industry chain. From the current point of view, China has basically achieved the expected goal, with hundreds of billions of subsidies to bring out the trillion-level market scale.
In 2020, the subsidy for new energy vehicles that was originally planned to be withdrawn, under the double test of the epidemic and the market, the state decided to extend the subsidy to 2022, but the subsidy amount was reduced by 10%, 20% and 30% every year.
Ouyang Minggao, academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and vice chairman of the China Electric Vehicle 100 Association, pointed out that from the perspective of the growth of non-restricted cities, the consumption of new energy vehicles has completely moved towards marketization. In addition, with the strengthening of non-subsidy factors such as double integration, carbon emissions, and traffic restrictions, the impact of the introduction of subsidies for new energy vehicles will not be too large.
In addition, judging from the financial reports released by some companies, the subsidies for new energy vehicles are becoming less and less in the proportion of revenue. Taking BYD Automobile as an example, BYD's revenue in 2020 is 156.598 billion yuan. Among them, the new energy subsidy is 2.3 billion yuan. It can be seen that subsidies account for a small proportion of BYD's revenue.
However, we also need to see the impact of subsidy decline. "In 2020, BYD's net profit was 4.234 billion yuan, and new energy subsidies accounted for nearly half of the profits." Wang Min said that although BYD's new energy subsidies account for a small proportion of revenue, they have become an important source of BYD's net profit. After the subsidy declines, how to ensure the profit margin of new energy vehicles will be an important challenge for car companies.
From the perspective of China's new energy vehicle product structure, high-end and low-end models account for a large proportion, and mid-end models account for less. According to Wang Min, China's new energy vehicle products present a "dumbbell type" structure. The decline of subsidies has a weak impact on high-end models, but the impact of low-end models cannot be ignored.
How to solve it? According to the views of the relevant person in charge of a new energy vehicle company, "the subsidy decline will definitely bring pressure to low-end models, and only by upgrading the model as soon as possible and improving the competitiveness of the product can we effectively offset the impact of the decline." ”