The development speed of new energy vehicles this year is more prominent, the reason is that more traditional manufacturers have to choose to stop work and stop production in the face of lack of cores under the epidemic, thus giving up a blue ocean for more new energy vehicles. According to the data, the production and sales of the new energy vehicle market in the first 11 months of this year have reached a scale of 3 million units, and both pure electric and plug-in hybrid models have a large growth performance.
According to data from the China Automobile Association, from January to November this year, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China reached 3.023 million units and 2.99 million units respectively, an increase of 1.7 times year-on-year. Among them, in November, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China reached 457,000 units and 450,000 units, respectively, an increase of 1.3 times and 1.2 times year-on-year, respectively, and continued to set new records.
It is worth noting that it is driven by the international general direction of "carbon peaking, carbon neutrality" double carbon target. The situation of replacing fuel vehicles with new energy vehicles in the domestic automobile market is further accelerating.
From January to November this year, the wholesale penetration rate of new energy vehicle manufacturers reached 15%, which was significantly higher than the 5.8% penetration rate of 2020 in the previous year. In November, the wholesale penetration rate of new energy vehicle manufacturers was 19.9%, of which 33.2% were independent brands and 24.6% were luxury brands. In detail, the share of mainstream joint venture brands is only 3.9%.
At the same time, the retail penetration rate of new energy vehicles exceeded 20.8%, the penetration rate of 13.9% in January-November, and the penetration rate of independent brands was 37.4%. The penetration rate of luxury brands is 19.4%, and the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in mainstream joint venture brands is only 3.6%.
Independent and new forces car companies "two blossoms" how to maintain a new growth point in the opportunity
Nowadays, under the background of the continuous improvement of the prevention and control of the new crown pneumonia epidemic in China, China's new energy automobile industry is also continuing to develop rapidly, with great growth in pure electric and plug-in hybrid models, and the performance of new car-making forces and independent brands is also prominent.
China's new energy vehicles continue to innovate in key areas such as batteries, motors, and electronic controls, the power battery industry chain is complete, and the level of battery technology ranks among the top in the world, which has also become one of the core reasons for the steady development of domestic new energy vehicles.
However, while the trend of electric vaporization in the automobile industry has been determined, more traditional car companies are also facing an embarrassing choice of dilemma. When the new energy wave comes, traditional automakers are reluctant to prematurely eliminate high-profit fuel vehicles on the one hand, but on the other hand, they do not want to miss this unprecedented opportunity.
While the penetration rate of independent brand new energy vehicles has increased significantly, the internal development has also shown an uneven state. In the camp of traditional independent brands, the development momentum of head enterprises is also strong, and BYD, SAIC Passenger Vehicles, and GAC Passenger Vehicles have achieved substantial growth. In this case, many Chinese automakers have launched new energy brands, including new car-making forces.
For example, bydir, Geely and other independent brands of plug-in hybrid, hybrid products, has been unanimously recognized by the end market. What is more prominent is that bydie's EV and DM-i families have formed a sales momentum of pure electric, plug-in and hybrid in this market segment, providing a new research and thinking direction for the transformation of new energy technology. On the one hand, this shows that consumer demand for new energy vehicles is constantly being released, on the other hand, it also shows that the product strength of various brands at this stage is strong enough to allow more wait-and-see consumers to pay money to buy.
The new car-making forces are also working hard in areas where they are better at it, making marketing more in line with the needs of the consumer market and providing "new things" that exceed users' expectations. Of course, not every new force can be so successful, compared with traditional car companies, they are still lacking in sales models, process control, scale costs, new brands and enterprises.
But what is certain is that the domestic automobile market will continue to develop steadily in the current situation in the future. In the long run, the domestic market is still in the early stage of development, and is transitioning from the initial stage of market consumer demand to the late stage of popularization, and the next new car sales will gradually shift from the incremental market to the stock market.
Interestingly, contrary to domestic brands, in the face of the arrival of the new energy wave, joint venture brands are more willing to "eat the old money" and "fry the old rice". Especially before this year, it is rare to see joint ventures launching independent new energy brands.
I remember that Akio Toyoda, the head of Toyota Motor, also shelled new energy vehicles. Two days ago, Akio Toyoda announced Toyota's latest electrification strategy at the Toyota Electrification Strategy Conference, and planned to transform the Lexus brand into a pure electric brand. It seems that the current development trend of the domestic new energy market has indeed made the joint venture brands red-eyed.
Although the joint venture brand is still tepid in the new energy market, Toyota's old rival Volkswagen has also launched the ID. series model in the domestic market, and the performance of the Volkswagen ID. family is eye-catching enough. The two joint venture car companies of "South Volkswagen" and "North Volkswagen", the current ID. family product planning and market feedback are also gratifying.
In November, domestic sales of Volkswagen's ID. series reached 14,167 units, up 11.2% month-on-month, setting a record for monthly sales. At the same time, this is also the third monthly sales of the Volkswagen ID series after September and October, and the follow-up development momentum is also worth promising. This not only brings more confidence to the joint venture brand, but also provides a reference model for friends who are still in the "troubled stage".
The "eclipse" of joint venture brands is how to find a new foothold in the wave
Affected by the "lack of core" this year, major car companies have to slow down the pace of production. Luxury brand manufacturers, such as BBA, due to their strong brand premium ability, high customer stickiness and large market demand, this part of the car companies give priority to ensuring the supply of luxury brand products. At the same time, it is conservative about electrification, but it is also accelerating the launch of pure electric products, including: the EQ series of the Mercedes-Benz family, the i series of the BMW family and the etron series of the Audi family.
Forced by the shackles of history, the current joint venture brand is still more inclined to create new energy products under the original brand framework. Putting aside the difference in product strength, the joint venture brand still has its own historical advantages in terms of user reputation and brand premium compared with domestic brands. If a new sub-brand is launched, it is actually equivalent to being on the same running line as a number of new energy brands such as domestic brands. Such an approach will only do more harm than good for joint venture brands.
Compared with the development process of electrification, traditional independent brands will be biased towards battery technology and three-electric systems. The new car-making forces are very different, they will be more inclined to the direction of new things such as software and energy, if they want to develop comprehensively, it will weaken their impact on joint venture car companies.
In addition, from the initial product research and development to market promotion, as well as the subsequent infrastructure construction involving all aspects of the new energy vehicle field, China is in the "pre-emptive" advantage. It is precisely because of these "innate" advantages that the joint venture brand has become the biggest obstacle to their electrification and intelligent transformation.
Or, for example, some of the "oil to electricity" products that appear in the automobile market, obviously, this part of the product is still in accordance with the traditional car manufacturing ideas of car companies, to create an electrified and intelligent product. But if you exclude the difference in power sources, these products do not bring any new experience to users.
At this stage, if traditional car companies can take into account both fuel vehicles and new energy vehicles and achieve differentiated operations, they may be able to promote the next development and deployment. At the same time, car companies are also facing a common problem, the current subsidies for new energy vehicles are declining, and the lithium iron phosphate battery that was once "abandoned" by passenger cars is now gradually increasing.
Although pure electric technology is gradually being recognized by the market, the problems of what kind of battery to use and safety are gradually becoming larger. Whether it is the rise of new forces or the transformation of traditional car companies, although the way and path to achieve the goal are not the same, the goal is very consistent. Although public opinion has been very enthusiastic, the general trend of new energy has basically reached an agreement. But the new energy race has just begun, and who will become the next "new weather vane" is still unknown.
Written at the end: The second half of the arms race of the new energy wave has just begun
According to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, new energy vehicle sales in 2021 will be 3.4 million units, an increase of 1.5 times year-on-year, and it is expected that the sales of new energy vehicles in 2022 will be 5 million units, an increase of 47% year-on-year. With the release of the pressure on the supply of automotive chips, the sales that were previously suppressed due to "lack of cores" are also expected to be alleviated, and the output of major car companies is also expected to continue to pick up.
In the face of the upcoming Spring Festival holiday in 2022, it is also a golden period of sales in the industry. These are all factors that will benefit the car market in the coming year. With the popularization of consumption in the new energy market and the improvement of new energy peripheral facilities, more and more consumers will turn to the choice of new energy models. Car companies will also face more and more opportunities and challenges, and the future market cannot be limited to electrification, nor will it stop at electrification. What new things will be born next year, we will wait and see.