The "Double Twelve" year-end promotion was opened, and successive orders prompted the high-speed operation of logistics vehicles. However, for new energy logistics vehicles, the pain points of short driving range and long charging time seriously affect the operation time and transportation timeliness.
Recently, as a technology route that rapidly improves charging speed and user experience, the power exchange mode has developed rapidly and has begun to emerge in the field of commercial vehicles. Can this model of "separation of vehicle and electricity" become a new way out for new energy logistics vehicles to break through the ice and solve difficulties?
Policy boost
Power exchange mode to meet the "air outlet"
The importance of electrification to the automotive industry is self-evident, especially in the context of the steady advancement of the "double carbon" goal, the automotive industry is accelerating its development to green and low-carbon, and diversified technical routes are gradually taking shape. As an efficient way to replenish energy, the power exchange mode has begun to receive great attention from the industry.
Since 2020, the relevant departments of the state have given clear support to the power exchange model. In April 2020, the Ministry of Finance and other four ministries and commissions jointly issued the "Notice on Improving the Financial Subsidy Policy for the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles", which clearly proposed to encourage the development of a new business model of "separation of vehicle and electricity". During the two sessions of the National People's Congress, as an important part of the new infrastructure, the replacement power station was written into the "Government Work Report" for the first time. Since then, in the "New Energy Automobile Industry Development Plan (2021-2035)" released in November, it has been clearly pointed out that encouraging the application of power exchange mode and strengthening infrastructure construction such as charging and replacing is one of the key directions for the development of the new energy automobile industry in the next 15 years.
This year, the power exchange model ushered in a new round of policy benefits. In October, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Notice on Launching the Pilot Work of the Application of the New Energy Vehicle Power Exchange Model", which proposed that the pilot work of the application of the new energy vehicle power exchange mode be officially launched, and 11 cities in Beijing, Nanjing, Wuhan, Sanya, Chongqing, Changchun, Hefei, Jinan, Yibin, Tangshan and Baotou were included in the scope of the pilot. In addition, the Notice also highlights the need to break through the key technologies of power exchange products, open up the infrastructure approval process, establish a supervision platform for power exchange vehicles, improve the standard system of power exchange technology, form an industrial ecology of power exchange mode, and build a power exchange policy support system.
Driven by the policy dividend, the power exchange model is expected to usher in rapid development. According to Orient Securities, during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the power exchange model will achieve rapid penetration in the transportation market and enter a period of rapid growth; by 2025, the replacement power station is expected to build 22,000 units, the operating market size will reach 263.1 billion yuan, the substation equipment market will reach 69.3 billion yuan, and the compound annual growth rate of the corresponding substation construction, operation and power exchange equipment will reach 80% to 107%.
Urban distribution logistics promotes the power exchange model
Opportunities and challenges coexist
Under the impetus of many parties, the power exchange mode continues to mature, and gradually lands in various scenarios such as manufacturing plants, industrial parks, docks, and mines. Nowadays, as more and more players flock to the track, the products of the replacement truck are also becoming more and more abundant.
In contrast, the development of the power exchange model in the field of urban logistics and distribution is slightly slower. The reporter learned that at present, only a few enterprises such as Beiqi Foton and Wuling have started the research and development of electric logistics vehicles.
In fact, compared with the traditional charging mode, power exchange technology can better meet the transportation needs of small batches and multiple batches of urban logistics. From the perspective of return and convenience, the power exchange mode is a new energy replenishment solution.
"Compared with electric logistics vehicles, electric logistics vehicles do have obvious advantages, which can effectively solve the pain points such as high car purchase costs, long charging time, inefficient operation, and mileage anxiety." Yao Chunde, a professor at Tianjin University, pointed out that the power exchange mode of quickly completing the energy replenishment within a few minutes is more suitable for the operational needs of urban distribution. In addition, the electric logistics vehicle adopts the "vehicle-electricity separation" model, which can greatly reduce the initial investment of users and directly hit the pain point of the high price of electric logistics vehicles.
"In addition, the power exchange mode is also excellent for the protection of the battery. After the battery is removed from the car, it is placed separately under constant temperature and humidity conditions for trickle charging, which is conducive to prolonging the service life of the battery and improving the residual value of the battery. The above-mentioned industry experts added.
However, combined with the actual use of the electricity exchange model in the urban distribution logistics market, there will still be many challenges. Cao Guangping, an independent researcher of new energy and intelligent networked vehicles, believes that there are some problems in the theory and practice of the power exchange mode. First, the huge cost input. The large-scale distribution of the substation and the cost of replacing the battery need to consume a lot of money; the second is the constraint of standard unification. Different car companies, models and battery capacity, battery shape, battery thermal management, battery mechanical interface standards are difficult to unify, and at this stage in the coverage can not meet the needs of all users; third, vehicle companies in the development of power exchange logistics vehicles, has not yet formed a standardized, modular, integrated concept. In addition, because in the power exchange mode, it involves battery loading and unloading, so at the beginning of the design, it is necessary to consider how to improve the efficiency of the power exchange, while taking into account the comfort, handling and user experience of the whole vehicle, which requires the car company to further improve and optimize the design.
Development of new energy logistics vehicles
Cost and efficiency need to be balanced
In recent years, with the continuous strengthening of environmental protection governance, new energy has become the only way for the development of the logistics industry.
The "New Energy Vehicle Industry Development Plan (2021-2035)" clearly states that from 2021, the proportion of new energy vehicles in the public sector such as buses, taxis, logistics and distribution in the national ecological civilization pilot zone and key areas for air pollution prevention and control will not be less than 80%.
In September this year, Xiao Yaqing, minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, also stressed that it is necessary to further strengthen the promotion and application of new energy vehicles, accelerate the construction of charging and replacing infrastructure, grasp the urban pilot project of fully electrification of vehicles in the public sector, and promote the increase in the proportion of new energy vehicles in the fields of urban public transportation, taxi, logistics and distribution.
It can be seen that the market potential of urban new energy logistics vehicles is huge. According to the prediction of the Automobile Logistics Branch of the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, in the next five years, new energy logistics vehicles will continue to maintain "blowout" growth, and the compound annual growth rate of domestic electric logistics vehicle production and sales is expected to exceed 50%, and the incremental scale will reach one million.
Although the market prospects are promising and there is strong support from national policies, the current mainstream rechargeable new energy logistics vehicles are facing huge technical problems. In addition, in the context of the continuous decline of the national subsidy policy, the industry's dilemma is prominent. In this case, can the power exchange mode become a "good medicine" for new energy logistics vehicles to solve their difficulties?
"At present, urban distribution logistics does not have the conditions for power exchange." Fan Yongjun, secretary general of the Chengdu New Energy Automobile Industry Promotion and Application Promotion Association, said that under ideal circumstances, the power exchange model has many advantages, but we must look at this technical route from multiple dimensions such as research and development costs, purchase costs, use costs, and operating models. For vehicle companies, starting from vehicle research and development, it is necessary to do a good job in design, commissioning, verification and other work, the cost of this process is very high, but because the market demand for electric logistics vehicles has not yet been opened, whether sales revenue can offset R & D expenditure is still unknown. At the same time, the power exchange mode also involves the problem of matching and generalization, and the power exchange battery needs to be standardized and serialized, which cannot be solved in a short period of time. In addition, from the perspective of supporting facilities, the operation and maintenance cost of the substation is relatively high, and where to build the substation, who will build the substation, and how much to build the substation are also issues that need to be considered.
"For the practical and efficient urban distribution logistics industry, market value is an important driving factor, and logistics companies consider more cost and efficiency." Logistics industry experts said that the current power exchange model in China is still in the market exploration stage, there are many aspects of the need for all parties in the industry to work together, this is a long-term exploration process, the future if the cost and operation mode can be continuously optimized, the market prospects of the replacement logistics vehicle can be expected.
Text: Wu Xinmiao Editor: Sun Weichuan Typography: Li Peiyang