Although 2021 still has half a month to pass, the overall situation of the car market has been determined. According to the current sales trend of the automobile market, the overall sales volume of passenger cars this year is not much different from last year, and it is expected to achieve an increase of about 5%. But considering that 2020 is the year of the most serious epidemic, it is indeed a bit "disappointing" that such an increase is indeed a bit.
In fact, if you analyze further, you will find that the reason why the overall sales growth can be achieved this year is precisely due to the sharp increase in sales of new energy models. That is to say, in the face of the overall stock market of the automobile market, the trend of new energy vehicles and traditional fuel vehicles has formed a strong differentiation contrast, the substitution effect of new energy on fuel vehicles has further emerged, and the pace of transformation of China's automobile market to new energy is expected to be much faster.
The development trend of new energy models has also allowed car companies to step up the pace of transformation. Even Toyota, which has been very "conservative" in electrification, has released fifteen electric models of various levels in one go, and announced the brand route of Lexus to turn to pure electric. The huge opportunities in the new energy market have also led to more and more cross-industry enterprises to join.
Although the total sales volume of new energy models this year has not yet been released, it is already certain that it will exceed 3 million units, so it is more than double sales compared with last year. According to the forecast of the China Automobile Association, the sales of new energy models are expected to reach 5 million units in 2022. With the introduction of more models and consumer acceptance of new energy, the penetration rate of the segment is expected to reach a new high.
Inside and outside, new energy has become a key point of attack and defense
From the sales of new energy passenger cars in November, we can see how "crazy" the market growth is. According to the Association of Passenger Vehicles, wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 429,000 units in November, up 17.9% month-on-month and 131.7% year-on-year. Retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 378,000 units in November, up 19.8% month-on-month and 122.3% year-on-year.
Behind the sharp increase in sales in November, there are many bright spots. The first is pure electric and plug-in hybrid models, achieving double growth. Among them, the wholesale sales of pure electric vehicles in November were 343,000 units, an increase of 121.1% year-on-year; plug-in hybrid sales were 85,000 units, an increase of 187.2% year-on-year, which means that the two lines of new energy have been recognized by consumers.
Secondly, from the sales ranking of new energy passenger vehicles of the Association of Passenger Vehicles, it can be seen that the new energy market is no longer limited to a few "head enterprises" to support the scene, but has formed a situation of hundreds of contending. In November, there were 14 companies with wholesale sales exceeding 10,000 vehicles, a significant increase over the previous period, and car companies generally achieved triple-digit growth. This shows that the capacity of the new energy market is constantly expanding and mining.
It is worth mentioning that in the november new energy sales ranking, traditional car companies have gradually occupied the forefront. Compared with the new car manufacturing forces, traditional car companies are constrained by many aspects in the transformation of new energy. However, in terms of capital investment, research and development capabilities, sales networks and base disk users, traditional car companies have obvious advantages, which provide strong support for the future development.
In addition, new energy not only "blossoms" in China, but also gradually becomes an important force in exports. This year's strong growth in the export of new energy passenger cars, not only the promotion of large-scale exports from Tesla's China base, but also the sharp increase in exports to Europe by major Chinese independent brand car companies such as SAIC. In November, Tesla China exported 21,127 vehicles, SAIC motor passenger car exports of 6,110 new energy vehicles, and other car companies' new energy vehicle exports are also poised to promote China's automobile exports to establish a new electric vehicle export advantage.
It is foreseeable that according to the current development trend of the new energy market, the sales of new energy vehicles in December will bring more surprises. This also gives car companies a wake-up call, the development of new energy is not only the trend of the times, but also in the stock market to get off the car companies to keep and break through the market share of the key point.
New cars continue, how much room is there for penetration?
According to the "New Energy Vehicle Industry Development Plan" (2021-2035) issued in December 2020, the goal of New Energy Vehicle Sales in China in 2025 is to reach 20% of the total sales of new vehicles, but according to the estimate of 5 million new energy models in 2022, this goal is expected to be achieved three years ahead of schedule.
Although new energy models will become the mainstream in the future, in the era when fuel vehicles still occupy an absolute proportion, how long can the explosive growth of new energy last? How much room is there for improvement in the penetration rate of new energy models in a short period of time? This has become a concern for both car companies and consumers.
According to the data of the Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the domestic retail penetration rate of new energy vehicles in November has reached 20.8%, of which the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in independent brands is 37.4%,19.4% in luxury vehicles; and the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in mainstream joint venture brands is only 3.6%. The penetration rate from January to November was 13.9%, which was significantly higher than the penetration rate of 5.8% in 2020.
Although the penetration rate of joint venture brands is low, there are problems such as the small number of products and the slow transformation speed, but it also lies in the positioning of joint venture brands. The penetration rate of domestic new energy passenger cars at various levels is relatively large, mainly showing two coarse and medium-level fine, that is, the situation that A00 and B are relatively high. This is due to the fact that new energy vehicles are mainly concentrated in short-distance transportation vehicles and second vehicles in some scenarios.
For A-class vehicles with a large market share, the penetration rate of new energy was about 7% in November. This is because this part of the purchase of users generally need to use the whole scene, and usually the living conditions of the family also have certain restrictions on the charging of new energy vehicles, so the penetration rate will not increase quickly.
Therefore, the market potential of entry and high-end new energy models next year is expected to be further released. Judging from the recent exposure of new car information, all kinds of "Hongguang MINI" will be listed next year; at the same time, a number of high-end new energy brands and models are also planned to be released next year. Other segments of new energy models, it is difficult to attract more consumers in competition with the same level of fuel vehicles.