A human weakness in the stock market that is overlooked by everyone

Do you believe in the law?

I think everyone will say that they believe, such as the law of buoyancy, the law of gravity, etc., there are indeed objective laws in the world, even if stock investment is derived according to the law of value.

As everyone should know, intelligence played a decisive role in the evolution of human beings, such as inventing tools such as bows and arrows, guns and other tools to defeat many creatures more powerful than humans.

The reason why wisdom can play a role is that it can find laws, unfortunately, today's society and the previous society have undergone earth-shaking changes, and the amount of faith in the information society is too large, and it can be said that it is not too much to describe it as a flood.

In today's society of major changes, human nature that always wants to find laws may be misleading.

Everyone has heard of the term "conspiracy theory", right?

In fact, conspiracy theory is that people will always think that behind the event, especially behind the major event, there must be an ulterior motive, there is a conspiracy, which reflects the cognitive characteristics of people, conspiracy theory is actually a kind of human weakness.

I don't know if you have the habit of reading posts on the Internet, visiting forums, etc., I think if you have this habit, you should be able to see it often, especially when you post about current politics and military, someone can quote from the side, link the recent events are very "logical", and regard these as a game between national governments, which is a typical embodiment of conspiracy theories.

According to a survey of 1300 Americans by researchers at the University of Chicago on the following fictional medical conspiracy theories:

1. The FDA prohibits natural remedies for the benefit of pharmaceutical companies.

2. The government knows that mobile phones cause cancer and does not act.

3. The CIA deliberately infects black people with HIV.

4, genetically modified foods are a secret means of reducing the population.

5) Doctors and the government know that vaccines can cause autism.

6. Fluoride of public drinking water is a means of sewage discharge for chemical companies.

The results found that 49 percent of Americans believed at least one, and 18 percent believed three. This is an era of widespread belief in conspiracy theories.

Conspiracy theories are a human instinct, and according to psychologists at the University of Kent, people who believe in one conspiracy theory often believe in other conspiracy theories, even opposite and contradictory conspiracy theories. For example, people who believe that Charlie is not dead may also believe that Charlie was murdered.

Conspiracy theory thinking is not to admit coincidence, not to admit that things happen naturally, to think that there is a connection behind it, there is a purpose.

It is undeniable that there are indeed conspiracies in the world, but conspiracies cannot be everywhere, and there are limits to conspiracies.

In fact, this kind of thinking is also easy to make mistakes in people's thinking, which is the relationship between rationality and possibility.

Nobel laureate in economics Daniel Kahneman once introduced cognitive bias.

Suppose a 31-year-old single woman named Linda, a philosophy student who is very concerned about discrimination and social notarization, and has participated in anti-nuclear demonstrations, based on this information, please evaluate the size of the following possibilities and give them a list in order of likelihood from largest to smallest.

Ling Da is a primary school teacher;

Linda is a bank teller;

Linda is an insurance saleswoman;

Linda is a bank teller who is passionate about feminist movements.

Friends may wish not to look down first, arrange the order by yourself, and continue to look down.

As a result, almost all of the testers thought that "Linda was the bank cashier who was keen on the feminist movement" had the highest probability, which was actually wrong.

It is common sense that A and B are less likely to be established at the same time than A alone. Are you right? This is the weakness of human nature.

In fact, when it comes to this, everyone can also understand why so many people in the stock market believe in bookmakers and believe in gossip...

In fact, this is all caused by human weaknesses, Paulus once did an experiment in "A Mathematician's Stock Market", that is, just a simple interaction between traders can also make stock prices fluctuate a lot.

Understand this truth that everyone should give up the obsession with market makers, inside information, etc., and focus on the value of listed companies, when holding stocks,

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It should also be understood that as long as the value of the company is still growing, even if the stock price fluctuates sharply, it is not afraid.