The stock market has chosen the winner of the 2024 U.S. election

Phoenix.com Finance

2024-05-27 14:28Posted on the official account of Beijing Phoenix Finance

Biden and Trump, two elderly people, are facing off on the same stage again after four years.

At the end of May, although the primary election in the United States is coming to an end, the stalemate indicates that a painful, cruel and long competition will continue.

The U.S. stock market has always been one of the best indicators of whether the ruling party will win the presidential election.

In the era of information overflow, the signals given by the market are terrifyingly mixed. Earlier, surveys conducted by the most well-known forecasting markets showed that the probability of Biden being re-elected as president ranged from 38% to 76%, which is too vague.

What about other economic, financial and confidence indicators? To find out, the Wall Street Journal analyzed the US stock market, the state of the economy as measured by real GDP, consumer confidence and other indicators.

The analysis points out that judging from the historical correlation between U.S. stocks and election results and the fact that the Dow Jones index has only risen by 5.6% so far this year, the probability of Biden winning re-election is 58.8%. If U.S. stocks rise further between now and election day, the probability of Biden winning re-election will also increase. If the stock market falls, the probability decreases.

The article quoted James Cavill, an influential strategist close to former US President Bill Clinton during the 1992 election, famously said, "The economy is the most important thing, fool." ”

Cavill wanted to use this to remind Clinton's campaign that the economic quality is the decisive factor in whether the ruling party can stay in the White House, and nothing else is worth mentioning.

Now, perhaps we should change the phrase to "The stock market is the most important thing, fool." ”

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