Author 丨 Mei Xukang
Editor 丨Hao Qiuhui
Core ideas
Before BYD, China did not insert mixing; before the ideal, China did not increase the range;
Plug-in hybrid and range extended electric vehicles exist as a transitional solution, and are not a long-term solution after all;
The end game of the development of new energy vehicles is always pure electric vehicles, and neither plug-in hybrid nor extended range is the future.
We are not witnessing the beginning of the fuel vehicle, but we are witnessing the end of the fuel vehicle.
The tide of the automobile industry is rushing towards new energy vehicles.
According to the data of the Association, in 2021, the cumulative retail sales of new energy vehicles in China reached 2.989 million units, an increase of 169.1% year-on-year.
Among them, the cumulative sales of pure electric vehicles in 2021 were 2.44 million units, an increase of 168.6% year-on-year, and the sales of plug-in hybrid vehicles were 545,000 units, an increase of 171.2% year-on-year, and the growth rate was slightly higher than that of pure electric vehicles.
Due to the big sales of BYD DMi series, ideal ONE and other models, plug-in hybrid vehicles (including range extenders) have gradually been recognized by the market and are considered to be the best transition solution from fuel vehicles to pure electric vehicles.
According to the 2021 new energy SUV sales list released by the Association, BYD Song, Ideal ONE, BYD Tang and other models are ranked in the top five, and BYD's Song PLUS DM-i and Tang DMi models released last year have made important contributions to BYD's sales growth.
But the debate over the superiority or inferiority of interming and augmentation techniques is raging.
On March 3, Qiao Xinyu, CMO of the Great Wall Wei brand, said bluntly on Weibo: "The ideal extender is not as good as Wei's two-gear DHT hybrid new energy technology." ”
The dispute over the route between the insertion and the motif has once again become a hot topic.
01 The contest between intermingling and extending the range is not a war of words
According to the power structure, plug-in hybrid vehicles (including the program) can be divided into three categories: series, parallel, and hybrid.
The tandem technology scheme is to generate electricity by driving the generator by the engine, and then deliver the electrical energy to the driving motor, which is powered by the driving motor to drive the car.
Range extended electric vehicles are a series plug-in hybrid vehicle with a high degree of electrification.
"Range extender" literally means increasing the range of electric vehicles. Compared with pure electric vehicles, the most significant difference is the addition of an extra range extender.
Under normal circumstances, the extender electric vehicle adopts pure electric mode, when the battery energy is not enough to provide power, the range extender intervenes in the work, that is, the traditional fuel engine is used as a "charging treasure" to charge the vehicle battery.
Parallel configuration vehicles have two drive systems: the conventional internal combustion engine drive system and the electric motor drive system. Both systems can work in harmony at the same time or work separately to drive the car.
Hybrid (series-parallel) configuration of the car has the ability to drive in series mode and parallel mode, which is characterized by the internal combustion engine system and the electric motor drive system each has a set of mechanical transmission mechanism, the two sets of mechanisms through the gear train or planetary wheel structure connected.
The hybrid configuration requires two motors, and the hybrid configuration of the current dual motor is usually a hybrid configuration, such as the Great Wall Lemon DHT hybrid system, and bydir DM-i hybrid system.
Due to the late appearance of range extended electric vehicles in China, there has been a large controversy, and the market usually regards range extenders as a separate category, which is distinguished from the common byd-byd and mixed technology routes such as BYD and the Great Wall.
Range-extended electric vehicles first emerged in the United States and Europe.
In the autumn of 1900, Ferdinand Porsche introduced the first prototype of the hybrid, the Lohner-Porsche Semper Vivus.
In 1902, he installed an internal combustion engine on it, creating the world's first tandem gasoline hybrid car, which also laid the foundation for future range extenders.
Both GM and BMW have launched range-extended electric vehicles.
The Chevrolet Volt extended range version, which was launched in 2010, is the world's first mass-produced extended range extended electric vehicle, and in 2017, GM launched the Buick VELITE 5 extended range version. BMW launched the BMW i3 extended range version in 2013.
But all three models can not escape the fate of discontinuation.
Before BYD, China did not plug in; before the ideal, China did not increase the range.
In 2007, China's first plug-in hybrid power production car BYD F3 DM was launched, and the first mass-produced extended range model, the Ideal ONE, was officially launched in 2018.
Before 2021, plug-in hybrid and range-extended electric vehicles are in a tepid state, with the advent of BYD's DMi system and the hot sales of the ideal ONE, it has gradually set off waves in the automotive market.
Interming and extended range technology solutions have their own advantages.
Compared with plug-in and hybrid models, extended-range electric vehicles have a larger battery capacity and can travel longer distances in pure electric state. Its structure is relatively simple, practical and simple in repair and maintenance. But at high speeds, in theory, range-extended cars are more fuel-intensive.
BYD and other plug-in hybrid models, the main feature is that in the case of short travel mileage, pure electric mode can be used to achieve the purpose of energy saving, the mileage can be used like normal fuel models, can be run in parallel mode at the same time. However, the pure electric driving mileage is not long, in the case of no electricity, the fuel consumption is higher, coupled with two sets of drive systems, the structure is relatively complex, which is not conducive to maintenance and repair.
With the gradual maturity of technology research and development such as power batteries, the pure electric mileage between plug-in hybrid and range-extended electric vehicles has gradually shrunk, and its advantages and disadvantages have gradually blurred, and domestic policies have also taken range-extended range as a special route for plug-in hybrid (PHEV).
As early as 2020, Li Xiang, founder, chairman and CEO of Ideal Auto, said that in the future, the ideal ONE will no longer emphasize the concept of "extended range electric vehicle", and the ideal ONE is a plug-in hybrid vehicle. "This is good for users, for us, for the media."
02 Sales respond to controversy, and neither the plug nor the range is the future
In September 2020, Volkswagen China CEO Feng Sihan made it clear at the Volkswagen PHEV technical exchange meeting that the range extender power has certain value from the perspective of a single model, but from the perspective of the industry, the range extender power can be said to be the worst solution, saying that the range extender power environmental protection is nonsense.
Feng Sihan's more fierce speech also led to a debate with Li Xiang.
In 2021, Ideal delivered 90,491 vehicles for the whole year, an increase of 177.4% year-on-year, and entered 2022, in the first quarter of 2022, Ideal Automobile has delivered a total of 31,716 units, an increase of 152.1% year-on-year.
At the 2022 China Electric Vehicle 100 People's Conference, Li Xiang said that when the ideal ONE project was established in 2016, it was proposed to become the world's first extended-range electric vehicle with a cruising range of more than 150 kilometers, and it was also the world's first four-wheel drive extender electric vehicle.
Growing sales are the market's endorsement of the ideal range extender technology route and a powerful response to market controversy.
More and more players are entering the range-extending track.
In March this year, the AITO Q&I M5 jointly built by Huawei and Xilix officially opened for delivery, and sales exceeded 3,000 units in March. It uses a range extender technology scheme.
In addition to the AITO Q&E M5, lantu FREE, which went on sale last year, offers both range-extender and pure electric versions, and its maximum monthly delivery since delivery in June last year has also exceeded 3,000 units.
Skyline Automobile also launched the range extender SUV Skyline ME5 last year, Niu Chuangxin Energy has determined two technical routes for its brand self-range, pure electric and extended range, the first model self-touring NV is positioned in a medium and large SUV, and will provide the above two power forms.
As for the field of plug-in and mixing, BYD's sales fever can provide insight into a corner of the market.
In 2021, BYD sold a total of 273,000 plug-in and hybrid models, and in the first quarter of 2022, it sold 142,000 units, and its plug-and-mix sales growth rate was higher than that of its pure electric models.
On April 3, BYD announced that it would officially stop selling fuel vehicles from March, and its plug-in and hybrid models were in short supply, which was also one of the important supports for its courage to cut off fuel.
Plug-in models such as the Great Wall and Geely are also menacing and have begun to occupy a place in the market.
Compared with the plug-in and hybrid models, the current extended range models on the market are still a minority.
However, the investment of many car companies and the obvious growth trend of sales represent that the extended range model has gradually entered the choice range of a wider range of users.
If it is said that the plug-in and mixing and the increase in the range who has a better future, Yiou Automobile believes that although more and more car companies participate in the plug-in and mixing and increased range track, it is only suitable for the current stage of development of new energy technology and market, and the end of the development of new energy vehicles is always pure electric vehicles, and both plug-in and mixing and increased range are not the future.
According to the data of the Association of Passenger Vehicles, the cumulative sales of pure electric vehicles in 2021 will be 2.44 million, and the cumulative sales of plug-in and hybrid vehicles (including range extenders) will be 545,000, which cannot hide the embarrassing situation that China's new energy market is still dominated by pure electric vehicles.
The emergence of plug-in hybrid and extended-range electric vehicles exists to a large extent as a transitional solution, and it is not a long-term solution after all.
03 Insert mixing and increasing the range, making a wedding dress for others
At the meeting of 100 electric vehicles, Wang Chuanfu, chairman and president of BYD, said that if pure electric vehicles focus on solving the need for additional purchases, then plug-in hybrid effectively solves the demand for first purchase and replacement of more families, and forms a significant substitution effect on the huge stock fuel vehicle market.
"Plug-in hybrid is an important path to achieve the goal of double carbon, and the change is relatively mild, which will help stabilize the industrial chain supply chain and achieve a smooth transition from fuel vehicles to pure electric vehicles." Wang Chuanfu said.
The market generally regards plug-in hybrid and range extended electric vehicles as intermediate models in the transition to the pure electric era, which plays an irreplaceable and important role before pure electric is fully popularized.
At present, there is still some room for development of plug-in and hybrid models. According to the data of the Association of Passenger Vehicles, the market share of plug-in and hybrid models is increasing, from 1% in 2020 to 2.7% in 2021, an increase of 1.7 percentage points. In the first quarter of 2022, the market share of plug-in hybrid models has risen to 4.7%.
Plug-in models are further opening up the market.
In February this year, Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the All-China Passenger Transport Association, said that in 2022, there will be more than 500,000 growth space for A-class plug-in hybrid models, and the plug-and-mix products of independent brands are worth looking forward to.
However, under the good prospects, the development of plug-in and mixing and increasing range is full of obstacles.
According to the "Notice on the Financial Subsidy Policy for the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles in 2022" jointly issued by the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Science and Technology, and the Development and Reform Commission, the subsidy standard for new energy vehicles in 2022 will be reduced by 30% on the basis of 2020. The subsidy policy for the purchase of new energy vehicles in 2022 will be terminated on December 31, 2022, and vehicles licensed after December 31, 2022 will no longer be subsidized.
The cost of raw materials caused by the impact of the subsidy decline value epidemic and other impacts has risen, and the price increase of new energy vehicles has become inevitable.
In March 2022, nearly 20 new energy vehicle companies announced price increases for some of their models, ranging from 1,000-30,000 yuan, which will have a certain impact on consumers' desire to buy cars.
At the beginning of 2021, the Shanghai Municipal Government issued the "Shanghai Municipal Implementation Plan for Accelerating the Development of the New Energy Vehicle Industry (2021-2025)", which involves some adjustments to The Shanghai Plug-in Hybrid Green Card Policy, the specific adjustments are: From 2023, consumers will no longer issue special license quotas for new energy vehicles when purchasing plug-in hybrid (including range extender) vehicles.
Shanghai took the lead in stopping the issuance of special license quotas for new energy vehicles (including range extenders), or become a weather vane, and it is difficult to obtain a green card for plug-in and mixed models in the future, which will further restrict consumers' car purchase choices.
BYD is insisting on pure electricity, plug-and-mix two-legged walking, although the current plug-and-mix models are hot, but pure electric models are still the focus of its future development.
Last year, BYD released the pure electric e platform 3.0, based on its "marine life series" pure electric model, this year will have seals and many other products unveiled.
Ideal Auto has also begun to develop high-voltage pure electric technology, and its first high-voltage pure electric model is scheduled to be available in 2023.
In a sense, the future of plug-in hybrid and extended range models has arrived, and this is the best time to realize their development potential. Every model that needs to be charged will contribute to the construction of a charging network and the promotion and popularization of pure electric models.
04 Conclusion
Mr. Lu Xun said in "On the Third Kind of Man": "The future is the present future, and only when it is meaningful in the present will it be meaningful in the future." ”
Fuel vehicles will not disappear soon, and plug-in and increased ranges will not suddenly be swept into the old paper pile.
In order to usher in a greener travel era, plug-in hybrid and extended-range models have their irreplaceable historical significance.