Today's domestic automobile market is particularly similar to the period from 2014 to 2017, except that the "protagonist" has changed from a small displacement fuel vehicle to today's new energy vehicles.
There is no doubt that in the past two years, the domestic automobile market has once again "turned red", after some third- and fourth-tier brands, including joint venture brands and independent brands, have been eliminated by the market, the domestic automobile market has appeared "less and fine" phenomenon, that is, a small number of advantageous brands, "control" a large number of sales and market share. And these relative advantages of the brand, relying on their own brand and product advantages, so that the domestic automobile consumer market showed a strong trend, but also let more people forget the fear of the "wave of closure" in previous years.
Nowadays, the domestic auto market seems to have entered a new track, that is, new energy vehicles, from the past one or two years, domestic new energy vehicles in the loss of a large amount of new energy subsidies, the overall market performance is better. Moreover, independent brands and domestic cars "play the protagonist" in this process, in addition to sole proprietorship brands such as Tesla, traditional joint venture brands in the field of new energy vehicles, with no action to describe it is not exaggerated.
Under such circumstances, it seems that a signal has been sent to the market and the industry, that is, the future domestic new energy vehicle market is basically the "world" of independent brands and domestic cars. So we found that in the past two years, the domestic new energy vehicle market has once again appeared a wave of trends, that is, a lot of new brands have emerged, in fact, if you pay a little attention, you will find that the new energy vehicle brands that have emerged now, the overall number is still very large, not much less than the years of PPT car manufacturing.
However, in our view, the current heat of new energy vehicles is laying the groundwork for another crisis. Remember that in those years from 2014 to 2017, with the blessing of small displacement purchase tax reduction, many independent brand car companies have launched small displacement SUV models, and the speed of new cars on the line is very fast, and for a time it feels like independent brands are rising. However, during the period from 2018 to 2020, many independent brands were eliminated due to poor product quality, poor reliability and backward technology.
In fact, today's situation is not much different from the beginning, but now many new energy vehicle companies are cloaked in the future and technology. Recently, we also have a feeling that the rate of domestic new energy vehicles on the market is getting faster and faster, and there is a feeling that everyone is grabbing the cake, which in our opinion is very abnormal. This kind of heat may eventually lead to a large number of idle production capacity, and some weak brands will still be eliminated, but everyone does not believe that they may be the one who is eliminated.
In March, BYD's new energy vehicle sales exceeded 100,000 vehicles, and the production of pure fuel vehicles, Tesla once sold more than 70,000 vehicles a month, such a car brand, may represent the mainstream of domestic new energy vehicles in the future, or grow into similar fuel vehicle era Volkswagen, Toyota and other brands. It is very difficult for other brands to grow into such brands.
Before we saw Xiaopeng, Ideal, Weilai three major car-making forces monthly sales of more than 10,000, of which the main models are more than 300,000 levels of products, giving people the feeling that China's high-end models are expected to replace the joint venture brand luxury car, but everyone may have overlooked a problem, that is, most of these products are sold to some relatively spending power owners, or there is more than one car at home, or not bad money. The market of 100,000-200,000 is still firmly grasped in the hands of traditional car companies, the main force is still fuel vehicles, and it is only when the market that can win this price range can it be regarded as a victory for domestic new energy vehicles.
Although we say that the new energy vehicle market has almost become the "home" of domestic new energy vehicles, a large amount of capital has poured into the new energy automobile industry, and more new energy vehicle manufacturers have launched a large number of new vehicles, which is likely to cause overcapacity in the entire new energy vehicle industry in the future, and lead to some weak brands being eliminated again. However, the fuel vehicle market will also usher in a major reshuffle, and some brands may still be out, including joint venture brands and independent brands.
In the previous wave of closures, some fuel vehicle brands have "survived", but they are very likely to lose in the new transformation. At present, many joint venture brands are trying to transform to new energy vehicles, but many of them cannot let go of their brand baggage, and in the case of losing the technical advantages of new energy vehicles, they still maintain the advantages in price, making the transformation of these brands very difficult, including strong brands such as Volkswagen, Toyota, Honda, GM, and Nissan. These brands are still like this, some manufacturers who do not have brand status in the fuel vehicle market themselves, is it more difficult to transform? If the transformation is not successful, will the result be out? For example, Peugeot Citroen, Ford, Mazda!
In the past period of time, we have been observing the development trend of the domestic automobile market, in general, the era of new energy vehicles is far from coming, the development momentum of new energy vehicles in the past few months is so rapid, the market penetration rate is only 20%, 80% of the market is still in the "hands" of fuel vehicles, many high-end electric vehicle sales are very good, but this does not represent the whole picture of the development of domestic new energy vehicles, because in the main market of 10-20 million yuan, the number of new energy vehicles that can really cut into is still too small. Or that many new energy vehicles are either consumed by the high-end market, consumed by consumers with higher consumption capacity as "experienced" objects, or "forced" to consume, such as sales generated by restricted purchases and limited license areas.
When new energy vehicles do not become the active choice of most people, a large number of new energy vehicle brands invest a lot of production capacity to produce electric vehicles, seize the market, there will inevitably be some manufacturers have to be forced to withdraw, and many fuel vehicle companies, but also face the possibility of transformation failure, for the fast-paced domestic car market, slightly backward, the result is out. Therefore, in our opinion, in the future, the stage of "joint grand event" in the domestic automobile market will be very short.
The comprehensive inventory coefficient of domestic auto dealers in February was 1.85, up 26.7% month-on-month and 10.1% year-on-year. In the case of chip shortage and production reduction of many models, the inventory coefficient of domestic car dealers is still above the warning line (1.5), which shows that the overall production capacity has been excessive.
So in the future, the domestic car market is likely to enter a "new cycle", that is, in the process of more manufacturers seizing the market share of new energy vehicles and the transformation of traditional fuel vehicle companies, there will be a number of "losers", these car companies may be out of the competition process, which is also a change that needs to be paid attention to in the future, the intensity of competition in the domestic automobile market is far greater than the data we can see.