At 19:49 Beijing time on the evening of April 14, He Xiaopeng, the founder of Xiaopeng Automobile, sent a "mixed" circle of friends.
On the one hand, he said that due to the impact of the current Epidemic in Shanghai on the local automotive industry chain, it may cause all Chinese vehicle companies to be unable to produce in May; on the other hand, he added that some ministries and commissions and competent departments are coordinating this, and called on more governments and competent departments to join in.
Although the words are "secret and not leaking", in the eyes of Kung Fu Motors, the time point of He Xiaopeng's circle of friends is quite "strange".
Because after 1 hour, the US stock market is about to open, and after the US stock market closed at a high of 7% on the 13th, He Xiaopeng seems to be worried that the news that Tesla's Shanghai factory will stop production until mid-May reported by the media on the 13th will affect the performance of Xiaopeng's US stocks.
Sure enough, He Xiaopeng's worries were not unreasonable. On April 14, the US stock market closed, and Xiaopeng Automobile fell 2.64%.
However, this decline occurred in NIO. N) down nearly 4%, Tesla (TSLA. O) In the face of a 3.7% decline, the losses have been relatively small. Only after sending out this circle of friends, He Xiaopeng only single-handedly pulled the performance of today's domestic auto stocks.
After the situation of domestic auto stocks was good on the 13th, the opening situation on the 14th took a sharp turn for the worse, of which Great Wall Motors fell more than 3%, BYD, Jinlong Automobile, Jianghuai Automobile, China National Heavy Duty Truck, Dongfeng Motor, Changan Automobile, and Guangzhou Automobile Group also fell by more than 2%.
At the same time, He Xiaopeng also "miserable" the current domestic new energy vehicle leader "Ningde Era", its early market fell by more than 5%, and the stock price hit a new low within this year.
Affected by the new round of the epidemic, April, which should be a spring opportunity, may become another "darkest moment" in China's automotive industry.
What is He Xiaopeng worried about?
In the circle of friends sent by He Xiaopeng on the evening of April 13, the content seems to be more of a follow-up to the news that "Tesla may be suspended until mid-May" that day.
"If Shanghai and its surrounding supply chain companies can't find a way to dynamically resume work and production, all Chinese automakers may have to stop work and production in May." He wrote in the circle of friends.
In fact, April 13 is a good day for Both He Xiaopeng and domestic listed vehicle companies.
On the same day, at the National Standing Meeting, it was not only stipulated that no new car purchase restriction measures should be added, but also specifically pointed out support for the consumption of new energy vehicles. As soon as the news came out, the Chinese new energy vehicle stocks continued to rise, of which Xiaopeng Automobile rose more than 7%, Weilai Automobile rose 5%, and Ideal Automobile rose by nearly 5%; and domestic automobile stocks also collectively went higher, a good situation.
However, after the close of the market on the 13th, a news that Tesla's Shanghai factory stopped production until mid-May was suddenly reported and fermented. So it also triggered He Xiaopeng's "worry" in the circle of friends.
In the view of Kung Fu Automobile, He Xiaopeng's move may be more of a move to "appease" the capital market. Because the time of this circle of friends is exactly after the close of its Hong Kong stock rally and the opening of the US stock market.
From the previous lack of power and core to the suspension of work and production in the Shanghai automotive industry today, the founder of the new car is always the first to run to the Internet to "complain". He Xiaopeng also became the first "whistleblower" to speak out in the crisis of production suspension in the Shanghai automotive industry.
As an important automobile town, Shanghai's total automobile industry output in 2021 is 2.8332 million units, accounting for 10.7% of the total national automobile production of 26.528 million units. This is equivalent to every 10 cars produced in China, and 1 is produced in Shanghai.
Among them, Shanghai is the core hub of China's high-end auto parts enterprises. According to the Statistics of the China Semiconductor Industry Association, the IC industry in Shanghai accounts for 23% of China's total sales. Among them, IC design accounted for 25%, wafer manufacturing accounted for 18%, and packaging and testing accounted for 17%.
Some experts expect that with the continuation of epidemic prevention policies, more than 50% of manufacturers expect orders to slow down.
There is no doubt that this will have a more or less impact on the G9 that Xiaopeng plans to list in the third quarter of this year, as well as the M5 that is in the lead cycle.
How long will the shutdown storm affect?
According to the data of the Federation of Passenger Vehicles, in the first week of April this year, the wholesale sales of the narrow passenger car market averaged 24,000 units per day, down 39% from the same period last year and down 45% from the average of the first week of March this year, a decline that exceeded expectations.
Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the Association, expects that compared with April of the calendar year, which is the golden period for the listing and release of new cars, the pressure on the production and sales of the automobile market in April this year will be greater.
In fact, the epidemic has not really made the Shanghai automotive industry press the "pause button", and more car companies are trying to restart production by using closed-loop management.
For example, SAIC Volkswagen is currently using this method, and it is reported that its Anting first plant produces about 200 cars a day during the closed-loop period, which is only about 60% before the epidemic.
The core parts supply chain manufacturers are similar to car companies, and parts manufacturers such as Huahong Group, Aptiv, bosch and other parts manufacturers have adopted closed-loop management measures.
On April 14, Wang Xiaoqiu, director, president and deputy secretary of the party committee of SAIC Motor Group Co., Ltd., issued a notice entitled "Notice on Issuing guidelines for the prevention and control of the epidemic caused by SAIC Motor Group Co., Ltd. to resume work and production".
The document shows that at present, SAIC's production enterprises have conducted a survey of the preparation for the resumption of work and production, and the results of the survey were fed back to the Group's Quality and Economic Department before April 17, and the production enterprises began to start the stress test of resuming work and production on April 18 according to the situation.
In other words, if the epidemic prevention work goes smoothly, SAIC may resume work in an orderly manner at the end of April at the earliest.
Some insiders pointed out that although Shanghai car companies and supply chains will not only need a restart buffer cycle of one week to half a month after the resumption of production, but also will have a great impact and changes on their future work on the number of safety stocks and supply chain choices.
If our love is wrong, may you and I not suffer in vain. —— "Understanding"
Recently, a number of car companies such as Weilai, Great Wall, and Ideal have adjusted their production or new car listing strategies. It is foreseeable that the production and sales of automobiles in April will be affected by a relatively large impact, but I believe that this will further awaken major car companies to attach importance to supply chain management.
Kung Fu shoots
There is no doubt that the Shanghai epidemic has caused some automotive supply chains to be tight, and may further reconstruct the industrial chain of Chinese automobiles. At the same time, it may also have a certain impact on the choice of future industrial layout of car companies and suppliers.
Although the industry's worries about the impact of the epidemic on the automotive supply chain are heating up, and He Xiaopeng's concerns are not unreasonable, we should also have confidence in the strong resilience of the domestic automotive industry. Coupled with the fact that the country has recently released a signal that it will vigorously support automobile consumption, it is believed that this year's automobile production and sales will not have large fluctuations.