At the turn of the first and second quarters of 2022, the days ahead will not be good.
At the end of March, NIO released its 2021 annual report. The data shows that the year-on-year loss decreased by 24.3%, but the loss in the fourth quarter of last year increased by 54.4% year-on-year and increased by 156.6% month-on-month. In response to this annual report, some institutions also gave an evaluation of "the overall performance is not good".
In the early morning of April 6, Beijing time, a number of overseas media broke the news that Weilai was willing to share power exchange platform technology with other car companies and is currently negotiating with automobile manufacturers. It is understood that the construction cost of a substation in Weilai's layout in China is as high as 772,000 US dollars, including the cost of battery and site rental. By comparison, the cost of building a battery charging station is $309,000. It is not difficult for us to make a conclusion that this action in the future is to authorize the power exchange platform to other car companies, thereby reducing the construction cost of the replacement power station. For example, Lotus Technology, a British luxury brand that launched its first pure electric SUV on March 31, is considered the most likely potential customer.
On April 7, 36Kr reported that Zhang Jianyong, vice president of NIO Autonomous Driving, will leave his job in the near future. At the same time as Mr. Zhang goes through the resignation procedures, the 400-person autonomous driving system team he runs at WEIlai will also face re-integration.
It is true that compared with Zhang Jianyong's departure, Li Bin is more troublesome, or how to achieve the company's profitability as soon as possible. In March this year, NIO was finally listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. However, even if NIO's stock price in the US stock market has doubled from $2 at the beginning of the year to $50 at the end of the year, from the book, WEILAI still shows no signs of improvement.
In fact, the future choice of power exchange service technology route, Musk just bought Tesla when he also tried. However, for the "Silicon Valley Iron Man" who adheres to the "first principle", the power exchange technology can indeed solve the problem and meet the needs in the initial stage of the electric vehicle, but in the long run, Musk still believes that the technical route of battery charging can really solve the battery life problem of the electric vehicle from the root. It is worth noting that in the past three years, leading power battery companies such as CATL, BYD, LG Chem, and Panasonic Electronics have also made unremitting efforts to improve the endurance performance of electric vehicles. Today, mass-produced electric vehicles with a range of 600-700km are no longer as rare as in the past.
In terms of business capabilities, the future may not be able to achieve more achievements on the track of power exchange. In January this year, CATL announced a high-profile entry into the power exchange track. Before the third-party public substation began to be popularized, "Ning Wang" was ready to "roll again" on the power exchange track. Such a news event also released a unique signal to a certain extent, that is, in the future, on the track of power exchange, it will also face the severe challenge launched by "Ning Wang".
It is worth noting that there have also been many heavy news in the investment market that seems to be good for Weilai Automobile. For example, "the female version of Buffett", the founder of Ark Investment Company, and "Wooden Sister" Cathy Wood said in an interview on Tuesday that the reason why he invested in Xiaopeng Automobile and Weilai Automobile was because of their "low profit margins" and were interested. In addition, "Wooden Sister" also pointed out that another reason why she is interested in Xiaopeng and Weilai is that she is optimistic about "next-generation transportation".
However, combined with the investment style adopted by "Wood Sister" in the past 3 years, it is not difficult to find that she is not a value investor in the strict sense. It can be seen that the practice of "Wooden Sister" adding Cang Xiaopeng and Weilai is more or less possible to test the waters and even play tickets. Therefore, it is not difficult for us to make such an inference, that is, the long-term value of "Wood Sister" for the future is not entirely optimistic. Perhaps only if Weilai let "Wood Sister" see more of the future, "Wood Sister" has the possibility of a heavy future.
All in all, NIO will face many challenges in the second quarter of 2022, and even for a long time to come. At the beginning of 2020, when Weilai's stock price was only $2, it was the majority of Weilai car friends who "recharged their faith", so that Weilai's stock price broke through the $50 mark and made investors in the US stock market interested in Weilai. At present, in addition to BBA, new power brands like Gaohe that are positioned in the high-end market can also steal many potential customers in the future.
In the past, through high-quality services including power exchange services, NIO was able to build a deep and wide moat. However, at present, the opponents have already set up more powerful and long-range catapults outside the city gates, even if Wei Lai wants to ensure that the city gates will not be lost, it is not as easy as in the past. At this moment, Li Bin may also be anxious about the performance of Weilai Automobile, which is also facing a dilemma, if in order to maintain its brand value positioned in the high-end market, then it may not be able to achieve greater possibilities in terms of profitability.
Earlier, Li Bin also ridiculed the Weilai factory in public for leading Porsche. However, Porsche, which was "looked down upon", has also recently made final preparations before going public. On the road to enhancing the competitiveness of the electric vehicle market through brand premium, many traditional luxury brands like Porsche have also planted a lot of heels in the past three years. In the European market, can local consumers really feel that this is a luxury smart electric vehicle brand that is truly in the middle of the Eastern world? For this question, we still need to draw a big question mark for Li Bin.