Car Review Observation, Car Review Agency, No. 540
Foreword: In fact, in the post-joint venture era, many car companies are making small calculations in their hearts. Not only should equity be further expanded, but "domestic" should also be maximized.
1
In the post-joint venture era, localization will be accelerated
For example, Mercedes-Benz, from the 2021 financial report, Mercedes-Benz's global sales in China contributed 38%, while Revenue China contributed only 15.1%, because about half of the profits from car sales were divided by Chinese partners.
According to the data, the revenue related to Beijing Benz in 2021 was 167.97 billion yuan, although it fell by one percentage point year-on-year, but the revenue related to Beijing Benz accounted for 95.5% of the total revenue of BAIC shares! That is to say, a single Beijing Benz has become the only source of profit for BAIC shares, and BAIC is almost making money lying down.
Some netizens pointed out pointedly, "Without Mercedes-Benz, BAIC no longer exists, because 96% of BAIC's money is earned by Mercedes-Benz."
And it is.
Thanks to the continuous profit contribution of Beijing Benz, coupled with the official liberalization of the foreign equity ratio, Beijing Benz is also an undercurrent at present, and the news about increasing its own share ratio is frequently exposed.
According to media reports, negotiations with BAIC have been basically completed, and Mercedes-Benz's long-term increase in Beijing Benz's holdings may be settled within this year.
If BAIC shares cannot reverse the existing situation, I am afraid that in the future, its autonomous automobile business will also be affected, and it is not excluded that it will also encounter the same situation as "BMW's acquisition of Zhonghua Automobile", which will be a major setback for BAIC Group.
However, some people familiar with the matter revealed that in order to hedge the impact of mercedes-Benz Group's holding of Beijing Benz, BAIC Group may once again increase its stake in Mercedes-Benz Group to more than 12%, and the current increase in holdings has also been supported by Mercedes-Benz.
Of course, the above information has not been officially confirmed.
At this point, the intention of both sides is actually very obvious, for Mercedes-Benz, it can leave BAIC, but it is inseparable from the Chinese market; For BAIC, Beijing Benz is a profit cow, and at the moment when luxury brands are selling hot, the opportunity to make money lying down is not willing to let go easily.
In the author's view, the cross-shareholding of the two sides is only a way of mutual restraint at present, but only from the perspective of the equity structure of Beijing Benz, It is a high probability event for Mercedes-Benz to further expand the proportion of equity and accelerate the localization layout.
2
This "model" is very Chinese
At present, there is also an interesting phenomenon in the domestic auto market that joint venture car companies are no longer just launching a few Chinese customized models for domestic consumers, but joint venture brands are changing to full Chineseization, and China's voice is getting heavier and heavier.
In this phenomenon, not only new energy vehicles and fuel vehicles, but even the subdivided luxury car series are also vigorously tilting towards the Chinese market. Among them, Dongfeng Citroen, JAC Volkswagen, Changan Ford, Changan Lincoln, etc. are typical representatives.
According to the car review agency, last year, the market share of domestic legal brands reached 0.6%, perhaps this data does not look bright, in fact, in 2020, its domestic market share was once as low as only 0.3%, last year, Peugeot, Citroen led by the French car completed the feat of doubling the market share, and the DPCA behind it in 2021 in advance to complete the annual sales target of 100,000.
Looking into the reasons, Dongfeng Citroen's Versailles C5 X, which is "tailor-made" for domestic consumers, is the biggest contributor. It not only brings the Shenlong car back to life, but also allows the domestic "dying" Citroën to usher in a turnaround.
Perhaps it is a taste of sweetness, recently the internal structure of DPCA has undergone relatively large changes, and the internal launch of the 'two-bedroom and one-hall' architecture model, that is, DPCA retains as a production base and maintains the existing share ratio; Zhongdong East Wind Peugeot was led by the French side, and the capital increase was increased to 75%; Dongfeng Citroen is led by the Chinese side, and the capital increase and share expansion to 75%. This basically means that the two major brands of the domestic legal system will go in two completely different ways in the future.
On the other hand, Lincoln, who entered China for the second time, "survived through the cracks" until after the "Chinese" Ford landed the SUV volume model in China. Industry insiders believe that seeing the sales growth brought about by localization, Lincoln hopes that the sedan can replicate the success of the SUV.
In 2020, Lincoln brought the first domestic SUV model new adventurer, followed by the second domestic model of the new aviator, the blessing of the two domestic models, that year its sales exceeded 60,000; In 2021, Lincoln continued to accelerate localization, bringing a new aviator of the third domestic model, achieving sales of more than 90,000 vehicles, compared with the domestic pre-production, Lincoln's sales scale in China has nearly doubled.
According to public data, Lincoln China announced the annual sales results of 2021, and its cumulative sales in 2021 reached 91,600 units, an increase of 48% over last year, once again setting the highest sales record since entering China, of which the annual sales of the new Lincoln Adventurer exceeded 50,000 units for the first time. Among the Lincoln brands, adventurers are the backbone of the Lincoln brand's sales, with the highest sales accounting for more than 75% of the Lincoln family in the same period last year.
It is worth mentioning that although Lincoln's annual sales of 90,000 are not high, even comparable to Weilai, Ideal and Xiaopeng's new forces, in fact, for Lincoln, more than 90,000 vehicles is not easy.
Of course, not every luxury brand can be proud of the spring breeze, and there are many people who are left behind. For example, Infiniti, although China's luxury car market is continuing to strengthen, Infiniti is still falling seriously. Just entered 2022, Dongfeng Infiniti announced that it was included in dongfeng Nissan's management system, which may also be a helpless move.
Looking at the success or failure of foreign companies, brands and products are very important, but "localization" is one of the most critical factors.
3
The same is true of the aftermarket
At present, new energy vehicles are at an inflection point.
Some relevant media predict that the global sales of new energy vehicles are expected to reach 18 million units in 2025, achieving a market space of about 3.87 trillion yuan, surpassing smart phones;
By 2030, the penetration of electric vehicles will be further improved, and the space is expected to reach about 7.6 trillion yuan. In this context, parts suppliers, as the upstream of the industrial value chain, are bound to benefit.
In particular, the change of new and old technologies, although it has brought many challenges to the transformation and upgrading of the traditional supply chain, but also spawned some new development opportunities, the first half of electrification has created the Ningde era, Guoxuan Hi-Tech and other power links of the global leader is a good example.
In the previous list of the top 100 global auto parts suppliers in 2021 released by the Us Automotive News, Japan has a total of 23 companies shortlisted, followed by the United States with 22 companies, followed by Germany, with a total of 18 companies on the list, their revenue accounted for 28.3%, 14.0%, and 26.4% respectively.
In the same period, only 8 Companies in China were on the list, and in addition to Yanfeng ranking relatively high, in the 17th place, other companies ranked relatively low, which obviously does not match China's position as the world's largest automobile market, on the other hand, it also highlights the huge room for improvement of local companies in the field of parts and components.
Because of this, in addition to the active efforts of local traditional parts companies, a large number of new players have chosen to cross-border betting in the past few years, in addition to the previously mentioned Midea, Luxun Precision and BAT, Huawei, Foxconn, including OPPO, TCL, Hisense, Haili and other companies are also continuing to increase the auto parts business.
Some media pointed out that considering the comprehensive rise of China's independent brands, a group of Chinese enterprises that focus on the core "track" for many years need to strengthen the domestic supply chain, in the second half of intelligence, with the full rise of independent brands, more localized global companies are expected to appear. For example, as the core assembly of the car, the chassis is expected to achieve import substitution in addition to the core links such as braking and suspension.
According to relevant analysis data, in 2016, the sales revenue of mainland auto parts was about 3.46 trillion yuan, and by 2020 it will grow to 4.57 trillion yuan, with an average annual compound growth rate of 7.2%, and it is expected that this revenue scale will further increase to 4.9 trillion yuan in 2021 and 5.2 trillion yuan in 2022.
In terms of global markets, the auto parts market is larger. According to the forecast of relevant agencies, global auto parts will be a large market of more than 10 trillion yuan.
Perhaps it is the firm belief in this that even if the parts business has been frustrated in the past few years, these crossover players have not reduced their investment in the automobile business, but have competed to carry out a new round of business layout.
4
The "golden" period of development
It can be seen that the automotive industry is ushering in a century of unprecedented changes, which is an era of intelligent vehicles and new energy vehicles, and independent car companies have ushered in a golden period of development.
However, one thing needs to be pointed out that the Chinese brands represented by Geely, Great Wall, Changan, BYD, Chery, etc., are affecting the development of the global automotive industry with technological change and innovation, and the trend of "localization" will be confirmed again in the next five years.
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