【EV Vision Report】Under the previous subsidy policy dominated by long endurance and high energy density, lithium iron phosphate batteries with higher safety but lower energy density were once "cold", while ternary lithium batteries with higher energy density were favored by the market.
In 2019, the cumulative loading volume of lithium iron phosphate batteries was 20.2GWh, accounting for only 32.5% of the total installed vehicles, a cumulative decrease of 9.0% year-on-year, and the loading volume of ternary lithium batteries increased by 22.5% year-on-year in the same period. Not only that, almost all the high-end pure electric passenger cars sold at that time also chose to be equipped with ternary lithium batteries.
In 2020, the cumulative loading volume of power batteries in mainland China reached 63.6GWh, a cumulative increase of 2.3%. Among them, the cumulative loading volume of ternary lithium batteries reached 38.9GWh, accounting for 61.1% of the total installed vehicles, a cumulative decrease of 4.1%; the cumulative loading volume of lithium iron phosphate batteries reached 24.4GWh, accounting for 38.3% of the total installed vehicles, a cumulative increase of 20.6%, which is the main product driving the overall year-on-year increase in loading.
In the first two months of this year, the power battery load volume accumulated 14. 2GWh, an increase of 388.6% year-on-year. Among them, the cumulative loading volume of ternary batteries was 8.7GWh, accounting for 61.3% of the total installed vehicles, an increase of 315.5% year-on-year; the cumulative loading volume of lithium iron phosphate batteries was 5.5GWh, accounting for 38.6% of the total installed vehicles, an increase of 586.8% year-on-year. The loading volume of lithium iron phosphate batteries still shows a rapid growth momentum.
A few days ago, the son of the second aunt next door asked me with a puzzled face, why has the lithium iron phosphate battery, which was once "disliked" by car companies, now become a "fragrant food" in everyone's eyes? Is this accidental or inevitable? In fact, many consumers also have this question, let's talk about it.
Which car companies have laid out or launched lithium iron phosphate versions?
Which car companies have laid out the layout or launched the lithium iron phosphate version of the model? Let's start with the recent Xiaopeng P7 and G3.
At the beginning of March, Xiaopeng Automobile announced the launch of the Xiaopeng P7 rear-drive standard endurance model. There are two models, Zhixiang Edition and Zhizun Edition, both using lithium iron phosphate batteries, waterproof and dustproof grade IP68, comprehensive cruising range of 480km, priced from 229,900 yuan. Xiaopeng G3 added 460c Enjoy Edition, and also replaced with lithium iron phosphate battery, the mileage remained unchanged, and the price was 149,800 yuan.
As early as the Spring Festival, the information of the lithium iron phosphate version of the Xiaopeng P7 entry-level model has appeared in the 341st batch of catalog publicity of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology. In the public information, in addition to the lithium iron phosphate battery hammer, the supplier is determined to be the Ningde era.
However, it is regrettable that the price of the lithium iron phosphate version of Xiaopeng P7 has not dropped below 200,000 yuan after all.
The second car company I don't say that everyone may also guess, it must be Tesla, how can this cost reduction thing be less than the "leek harvester".
As early as last October, Tesla Model 3 standard endurance after-drive upgrade version has been replaced with lithium iron phosphate batteries, the price has been further reduced to 249,900 yuan. At the end of February this year, Tesla also broke important news related to iron phosphate, musk said on Twitter on February 26 that all standard endurance models of model 3 will be replaced with lithium iron phosphate batteries.
The third car company is not unfamiliar to everyone, that is, BYD. It can be said that the birth of BYD's blade battery has pushed the "warming" of lithium iron phosphate batteries to a climax. Blade battery using innovative structure, the battery in the group to skip the module, the cell monomer is both an energy part and a structural part, when hundreds of cells are arranged together, the overall strength of the battery pack is greatly improved. Because the blade battery has increased its volumetric energy density by more than 50%, the overall endurance is not inferior to the mainstream ternary lithium battery. Blade batteries are now installed on BYD Han EV models.
In fact, not only the above three companies have laid out or launched lithium iron phosphate models, such as BAIC BJEV's EU5, Chery New Energy's Little Ant and JAC Volkswagen Sihao's EX10. It can be seen that the recovery of lithium iron phosphate batteries is coming little by little.
Cheap is the last word
Why lithium iron phosphate has won the favor of many car brands, one of the most important points I do not say that everyone knows, that is, cheap.
Lithium iron phosphate has obvious cost advantages over ternary lithium, and this advantage will be further expanded. Although the raw material cost of iron phosphate has been rising since the beginning of last year, compared with the price increase of raw materials for ternary lithium, it is a small witch.
According to the data of the business agency website, the price of lithium iron phosphate has risen from December 2020 to the present, the price per ton has risen from 36,000 yuan to 46,500-50,000 yuan, the largest increase of nearly 28%. The price of metal nickel fell from about 131,000 yuan per ton to about 125,000 yuan in the same period, a decrease of about 4.8%, although the price has declined, but the decline is limited and still very expensive; the price of metal cobalt rose from 265,000-270,000 yuan per ton to 363,380 yuan in the same period, with the largest increase of more than 30%.
Lithium iron phosphate price
Nickel prices
Cobalt prices
Although lithium iron phosphate has risen sharply in the past year due to the sudden increase in production capacity, it is like the speed of bicycles and airplanes compared with the increase of nearly 100,000 yuan per ton of ternary lithium raw materials. (Image source: Kokusha)
What other reason than being cheap?
The cheap price is undoubtedly an important reason for the recovery of lithium iron phosphate batteries, and the second reason is that the production capacity of ternary lithium batteries is seriously insufficient, and the situation of short supply is increasing. In addition to the increase in demand from the majority of car companies, there has been a supply crisis of metal nickel and cobalt among the ternary materials.
Cobalt is a rare metal that is tight all year round, nearly half of the world's reserves and more than 70% of the mining volume come from one of the most volatile countries in Africa - the Democratic Republic of the Congo, so the supply of this metal material can be imagined, and cobalt itself is a rare metal, with less than 8 million tons of global reserves.
Cobalt powder
Nickel is a metal that friends will not be too unfamiliar with, because of the good anti-corrosion properties of nickel, many national currencies in the coins are nickel coins, including the renminbi. Nickel metal reserves and production are not small, but in the face of surging demand for ternary lithium batteries, in the next few years, nickel shortages will not ease, will only become more intense, and shortages will become the norm.
So now lithium iron phosphate in addition to the cost advantage, the stability of the supply is also a big advantage, after all, lithium iron phosphate this material is not rare, production and supply are relatively smooth, although short-term supply and demand tightness will lead to price fluctuations, but the possibility of supply problems is very low.
For today's automakers, ensuring the stability of the supply chain is more important than cost, and if the production line is forced to stop work due to the shortage of materials, the loss will be astronomical.
Have lithium iron phosphate batteries really become easy to use?
This problem may be the most concerned thing for consumers, after all, the low cost and sufficient supply capacity we mentioned earlier are a large part of the benefits to the main engine factory. The benefit for consumers is that the price of the whole vehicle will be lower and the delivery time will be shorter. In addition to these benefits, the problems of low energy density, weak endurance and poor low temperature performance of lithium iron phosphate that everyone knew before are now solved?
We have one to say, and there really isn't! At present, the energy density of the blade battery equipped with BYDHan EV is 140Wh/kg, and the energy density of Tesla Model 3 using lithium iron phosphate batteries in the Ningde era is only 125Wh/kg, and the highest energy density of domestic lithium iron phosphate batteries is the new battery just released by Guoxuan Hi-Tech at the end of 2020, with an energy density of 210wh/kg, which is also far from the ternary lithium battery approaching 300Wh/kg. In terms of low temperature performance, lithium iron phosphate is congenitally insufficient, this defect is determined by the material, and it is difficult for the immortals to change, if the material properties are changed, is it still lithium iron phosphate?
The main engine factory is not without thinking of anything, for energy density and endurance, whether it is a higher density of cells or the development of moduleless technology, the energy density of lithium iron phosphate battery packs can reach a level close to ternary lithium. Now the use of lithium iron phosphate battery products, although the battery life performance is indeed slightly weaker, but can already meet the basic needs of most consumers. As for the problem of poor low-temperature performance of lithium iron phosphate, there is indeed a lack of effective methods at present, and can only be alleviated by relying on the optimization of temperature management software.
In fact, in winter cars, whether it is a ternary lithium battery or a lithium iron phosphate battery, it needs a working time to heat up the battery and enter the best state. If the single driving distance is short and the time is short, the attenuation of lithium iron phosphate batteries and ternary lithium batteries will be very obvious, and every time the battery is not hot, it will stop, and then stop for a few hours, and the whole vehicle will continue to repeat the cycle that has not yet heated up and stopped. In general, lithium iron phosphate batteries do have worse low temperature performance than ternary lithium batteries, but this pot is completely thrown to lithium iron phosphate batteries, which is also inappropriate.
Security and stability are not so important?
Why do everyone say that ternary lithium batteries are becoming more and more unsafe? Taking ternary nickel-cobalt-manganese batteries as an example, nickel can increase the capacity of the battery and improve the energy density of the battery, but the thermal stability and cycle performance are poor; cobalt can improve the conductivity and increase the power; manganese is to enhance the cycle life of the battery and improve the safety and stability. Under the temptation of high energy density, ternary lithium batteries from 532 to 622 and even to the current 811, the proportion of nickel continues to rise, the proportion of manganese continues to decline, and the safety performance is getting worse and worse.
The unique chemical structure of lithium iron phosphate batteries makes the chemical bonds between crystals more stable, which can resist higher temperatures without decomposition. Among the current mainstream car batteries, lithium iron phosphate has the best thermal stability. Dissolves only begin when the ambient temperature reaches 600 °C. In contrast, ternary lithium batteries begin to dissolve at about 300 ° C. In the spontaneous combustion incident, it is indeed a ternary lithium battery model that occupies a larger proportion.
Editor's comments: At a time when there is no major breakthrough in the raw materials of passenger car batteries, the return of lithium iron phosphate batteries to the mainstream market is in line with the current national development trend of new energy vehicle safety and stability. The most fundamental reason why lithium iron phosphate batteries have become the "fragrant food" of many OEMs is "silver". Because lithium iron phosphate is cheap, manufacturers save costs, and the price of the whole vehicle falls, saving consumers money. In fact, whether it is the main engine factory or consumers know that the low temperature performance of lithium iron phosphate is poor, but the price is in place, what can not be talked about?