A year ago, we had asserted that the manual block was dead and had no existential value, which attracted the criticism of many small partners. But after a year, now look at the domestic automobile market about the existence of manual transmission, you will find a very obvious trend, manual transmission is only a "foot in the door" from extinction, may not take long, want to buy a manual transmission model, the difficulty will be very large.
First of all, the demand, 10 years ago, that is, when I took the driver's license, the number of C1 manual driver registrations at that time was very large, and everyone thought that anyway, the C1 driver's license could be opened manually, and it could also be opened automatically, and the two were not delayed, so the overall cost of applying for the C1 driver's license at that time was much higher than that of the C2 driver's license. Some time ago, I inadvertently asked about the current driving test, basically now there are fewer and fewer people taking the C1 driver's license, but most people are inclined to take the C2 automatic driver's license, so the price of the C2 driver's license is much more expensive than the C1. In fact, the core reason for this situation is that most consumers are ready to choose automatic models, or are not ready to drive manual models, which is a blow to the existence of manual transmissions.
As we said before, manual transmissions basically exist in some low-end, small-displacement, small-size models, and exist as entry-level models that pull down prices, but now the situation is completely different. We have seen that some low-end models choose to equip their models with automatic transmissions, such as Fit. Some domestic models with lower prices also choose to carry automatic transmissions in the whole series, such as shadow leopard, with a starting price of less than 100,000 yuan, and the whole series is equipped with a 7-speed dual-clutch transmission. Therefore, as the cost of automatic transmissions is getting lower and lower, the trend of manufacturers abandoning manual transmissions has been very obvious, and manufacturers who basically pursue profits and sales will not make further efforts on automatic transmission models.
Of course, there is a new trend, which basically completely "blocks" the existence of manual models, that is, electrification, to put it bluntly, that is, new energy vehicles. We see that at present, the domestic sales volume is relatively high, the price is very cheap electric vehicle product Wuling Hongguang MINI EV, there are only two pedals under the foot, according to the operation mode of fuel vehicles, they are also automatic models. It can be said that in new energy vehicles, including pure electric, hybrid, and range-extended electric vehicles, we can't imagine what they will look like with manual transmissions, so in the long run, as the ownership of new energy vehicles becomes larger and larger, the possibility of the existence of manual transmissions will become smaller and smaller.
Then for smart cars that many manufacturers are laying out, it is even more impossible to have manual transmissions. The reason is very simple, smart cars in acceleration, braking, parallel line and many other aspects are controlled by computer systems, basically to avoid human interference, and in the manual transmission model to achieve intelligent driving, basically there is no possibility.
For many people, the nostalgia for the manual transmission, rather, is the nostalgia of their own youth, driving a manual transmission, young hands and feet, clutching, shifting gears, refueling and other actions in one go, it is indeed worth remembering, even old drivers like me, occasionally remember the excitement of driving a manual transmission model for the first time after getting a driver's license many years ago. But from the perspective of development, the manual transmission must be completely eliminated, the reason is also very simple, the current automatic transmission technology is mature, low cost, and easy to operate, more in line with the attributes of the car as a means of transportation, because for most people, the car is from the A point to the B point of the means of transport, the simpler the better, the more convenient the better.
In general, the chances of us being able to see manual transmission models on the road are getting smaller and smaller, and this situation has changed completely as the market competition for low-cost models becomes more and more fierce, manufacturers are more willing to stack configurations, and new energy vehicles do not need manual transmissions at all. From the current situation, the vast majority of manufacturers have not produced many manual models, and those who are still willing to use manual models to lower the price to attract consumers to buy models, many of which are essentially lack of real attraction to consumers. So in the future, manual transmission models will completely disappear, at least in the field of passenger cars is very likely, of course, this is not a bad thing, but a microcosm of the overall progress of automotive technology.