Oil prices into the "9 yuan" era Why are pure electric vehicles still not fragrant enough?

Oil prices rose for six consecutive years

In recent days, international crude oil prices have soared, and domestic refined oil prices have risen for 6 consecutive days, returning to the "8 yuan era". The next round of refined oil price adjustment will be carried out at 24:00 on March 17, and analysts pointed out that No. 95 gasoline will fully enter the "9 yuan" era.

Sing more new energy

Industry experts said: "The high oil price directly pushes up the daily commuting cost of fuel vehicles, and continues to expand the order of magnitude of the base plate for the further promotion of new energy and even oil-electric hybrid technology." ”

Car buyers

Factors such as price, car cost, insurance cost, mileage anxiety, safety hazards, and value preservation will be fully considered.

According to the data of the Association of Passenger Vehicles, in 2021, the cumulative retail sales of passenger cars in mainland China reached 20.146 million units, an increase of 4.4% year-on-year. Among them, the retail sales of new energy passenger cars reached 2.989 million units, an increase of 169.1% year-on-year; traditional fuel vehicles fell by 6% year-on-year.

At present, the domestic refined oil price has risen for 6 consecutive years, No. 98 gasoline has exceeded 9 yuan, the cost of fuel vehicles has increased significantly, and new energy vehicles, especially pure electric vehicles, are more fragrant?

Red Star Capital Bureau noted that although the comments of netizens in the past few days are full of ridicule about oil prices, most of them said that they would not consider buying pure electric vehicles for the time being. Several consumers who held the currency and waited on the sidelines told the Red Star Capital Bureau that they fully considered the price, car cost, insurance cost, mileage anxiety, safety hazards, value preservation and other factors, "Comprehensive consideration of the oil car is cheaper, it is really not possible for me to choose hybrid." ”

Pure electric vehicles

The cost of using a car is high, and there is mileage anxiety

Shen Hui, CEO of WM Motor, posted on Weibo on the evening of March 9, taking this opportunity to recommend new energy vehicles: "According to the calculation of 100,000 kilometers in 5 years, the electricity consumption of smart pure electric vehicles can save about 80,000 yuan compared with the fuel cost of fuel vehicles. ”

In the eyes of many consumers, only pure electric vehicles are truly new energy vehicles. According to Shen Hui's logic, when oil prices rise, pure electric vehicles should be selected to save fuel costs.

Will oil prices remain high for a long time? The United Arab Emirates on Wednesday expressed its support for OPEC's increase in crude oil production, with New York crude futures plunging 11.46 percent and Brent crude futures plunging 12.09 percent.

In addition, the mainland refined oil products implement the "floor price" and "ceiling price" mechanism, when the international oil price is lower than 40 US dollars / barrel and higher than 130 US dollars / barrel, the domestic refined oil price is no longer adjusted.

However, the "Petroleum Management Measures" stipulate that when the price of crude oil in the international market is higher than 130 US dollars (inclusive) / barrel, the price of gasoline and diesel is not mentioned or reduced in principle. That is to say, even if the international oil price exceeds the "ceiling price", the domestic oil price may still be raised.

Some car owners told Red Star Capital Bureau that the cost of pure electric vehicles is higher than expected. "Generally, you need to replace a battery in four or five years, which is tens of thousands of yuan, which is more expensive than gasoline."

"With home charging pile charging, the cost of pure electric vehicles is only one-tenth of that of oil vehicles." If there is no home pile, the commercial pile electricity cost is close to 2 yuan / kWh, and the cost of the car will be quadrupled. ”

Even if it is given away for free, a large number of car owners still do not install home piles.

On December 20 last year, Shen Hui publicly stated: "Weima delivered more than 40,000 vehicles, but nearly 20,000 charging piles distributed with the car could not be delivered." "Charging Alliance data shows that the household charging pile allocation rate is 60%-70%.

The public charging pile can not meet the charging demand, the current ratio of public charging piles to new energy vehicles is 1:6.8.

Behind the hot searches such as "new energy car owners get up at four o'clock in the morning to grab charging piles", it is the mileage anxiety of consumers about the shrinking endurance of electric vehicles in winter and the dissatisfaction with battery charging.

By the end of 2021, the number of new energy vehicles in the country was 7.84 million, an increase of 59.25% year-on-year. Among them, the number of pure electric vehicles was 6.4 million, an increase of 151.61% year-on-year.

Pure electric vehicles (BEVs) have led to a dominant position in the new energy market due to the improvement of key technical indicators and performance of products and the decline in costs.

According to the data of the Association of Automobile Associations, from January to February this year, the sales of pure electric vehicles in the mainland reached 480,000 units, an increase of 131.8% year-on-year, and the penetration rate reached 14.4%. Sales of pure electric vehicles accounted for 76.92% of the sales of new energy vehicles.

However, due to the recent rise in raw material costs, chip shortages, subsidies and other factors, new energy vehicles have set off a wave of price increases. According to incomplete statistics from the Red Star Capital Bureau, since the end of last year, at least 16 new energy vehicle companies have announced price adjustments, covering the mainstream car purchase range below 100,000 yuan to more than 300,000 yuan, most of which are pure electric vehicles.

Models below 100,000 yuan were raised by a higher margin, with an average price increase of about 4,800 yuan. Pure electric cars with higher cost performance, such as Euler black cat, white cat, and Changan Ben National Edition low-configuration models, simply suspended orders.

Difficult delivery is also one of the reasons for consumer hesitation. Bydir, GAC E-An, Geely Geometry and other brands of popular models have a pick-up cycle of more than 3 months, the Xiaopeng P5 has a pick-up cycle of more than 4 months, and tesla Model Y and Model 3 models have a pick-up cycle of up to 12-16 weeks.

Plug-in hybrid models

The trade-off is growing at a high rate

Since the range anxiety of pure electric vehicles is still widespread, plug-in hybrid models are considered to be a shortcut to achieve the transition from fuel vehicles to pure electric vehicles.

The pure electric endurance of this model is enough to cope with daily commuting, refueling can also be competent for long-distance travel, and the policy can also enjoy similar license plate and restriction policies as pure electric models.

Ideal ONE using range extender electric technology, with a total of 144,770 units delivered since its launch. With this model, Ideal Auto ranks among the top three of the new car-making forces. The 2021Q4 financial report released a few days ago shows that the ideal quarterly revenue exceeded 10 billion for the first time.

BYD occupies nearly half of the hybrid market in 2021, and its DM-i hybrid series has sold 272,000 new vehicles. In January 2022, BYD DM-i models sold 46,000 units, up 760.6% year-on-year, and DM-i models sold 44,300 units in February.

The success of Ideal Auto and BYD has made many car companies focus on the market of plug-in and hybrid models. Geely launched Thor Hybrid, Chang'an has IDD Hybrid, Great Wall has Lemon DHT Hybrid, and Chery has Kunpeng DHT Hybrid.

In 2021, the cumulative sales of plug-in and hybrid models reached 545,000 units, an increase of 171.1% year-on-year, becoming the segment with the highest growth rate. In January this year, a total of 85,000 plug-in models were sold, up 3.1% month-on-month and 198.3% year-on-year. Pure electric passenger cars fell 15% month-on-month and nearly 60% year-on-year.

In February, retail sales of plug-in and hybrid models reached 66,000 units, up 367.2% year-on-year. BYD is even more exclusive to two-thirds of sales, surpassing SAIC Volkswagen and SAIC-GM to win the second place in single-month sales, and for the first time standing in the championship position of the top three independent.

Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the Association, said, "To some extent, the shrinking of the mini-car market and the expansion of the market for plug-in and hybrid models are all positive manifestations of the structural adjustment of new energy vehicle products. "In 2021, the market share of mainland plug-in and hybrid models is only 18%, and this year, the federation will judge that the proportion of this market will increase to 25%.

According to the analysis of the Association, based on the good performance in 2021, the sales target of new energy passenger cars in 2022 will be adjusted from 4.8 million to more than 5.5 million units, and the penetration rate of new energy passenger cars will reach 25%.

Liu Hao, an analyst in the automotive industry, told Red Star Capital Bureau that the current ownership of new energy vehicles only accounts for 2.6% of the total number of cars. It is the trend of the times for new energy vehicles to replace fuel vehicles, but it is impossible to achieve it overnight in a short period of time. It is estimated that the number of fuel vehicles in China will peak in 2025, reaching 290 million units.

He pointed out that at present, the charging infrastructure of new energy vehicles still needs to be improved, the core three-electric system also needs to be broken, and the second-hand car market and battery recycling system also need to be improved.

The "2021 Used Car Market Consumer Demand Insight Report" released a few days ago pointed out that the 3-year retention rate of mainstream traditional energy used cars remained at 50% to 70%. Compared with second-hand fuel vehicles, the overall 1-year retention rate of new energy used cars is 6.9%, and the 3-year gap is 5.3%.

Chengdu Business Daily - Red Star News reporter Wu Danruo