Following the "surge" in 2021, the domestic new energy heavy-duty truck market has once again shown a surge this year. According to the latest release of traffic insurance terminal sales data, in January 2022, the sales volume of new energy heavy-duty trucks in mainland China reached 2283 units, an increase of 1318% year-on-year, and the penetration rate of the heavy-duty truck market rose to 7.5%. In this regard, many people in the industry believe that this year's new energy heavy truck market will open a high-speed growth channel, and the annual sales volume is expected to achieve 3 times growth.
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It is expected to exceed 30,000 vehicles in the whole year
In 2021, the sales volume of domestic new energy heavy-duty trucks has gone all the way up, and the annual sales volume has exceeded 10,000 for the first time, an increase of nearly 3 times year-on-year, far exceeding industry expectations and becoming a bright color in the commercial vehicle market. The continuous hot market situation has made the industry full of confidence in the development prospects of new energy heavy trucks.
The relevant person in charge of Hanma Technology said at the national partner conference that in 2022, the total sales volume of new energy heavy trucks in the mainland is expected to double to about 25,000 vehicles. XCMG New Energy believes that in 2022, the domestic new energy heavy-duty truck market demand is expected to reach about 50,000 vehicles.
In addition, the major spare parts suppliers of new energy heavy trucks also hold a very optimistic attitude towards the market trend this year. Among them, Li Lei, chairman of Suzhou Green Control Transmission Technology Co., Ltd., predicts that in 2022, the total sales volume of the domestic new energy heavy truck market will exceed 30,000 vehicles; Tebaijia Power also believes that the sales of new energy heavy trucks will rise to 30,000 to 50,000 vehicles in 2022.
Entering 2022, the continuous improvement of the new energy heavy truck market has been continued, which has once again verified that the heat of the new energy heavy truck track is heating up rapidly, and the dream of total annual sales of more than 30,000 vehicles is expected to shine into reality.
A number of industry experts and heads of commercial vehicle companies believe that in 2022, it is not surprising that the new energy heavy-duty truck market will start with a soaring trend. On the one hand, commercial vehicle companies signed 25,000 new energy heavy-duty truck orders in 2021, of which about 15,000 units have not been delivered at the terminal, some of which have been transferred to January this year, with the gradual release of this part of the demand, will continue to push up the sales of new energy heavy-duty trucks.
On the other hand, since the second half of 2021, due to the impact of unfavorable factors such as the switching of emission standards, insufficient construction of infrastructure projects, and high inventory, the terminal demand in the heavy-duty truck market has been narrowing. Under the downward pressure of the traditional heavy-duty truck market, most car companies have bet on the new energy track and continuously enriched the products in various sub-application scenarios, providing a guarantee for the continuous growth of the new energy heavy-duty truck market.
"Due to the low sales base in January last year (less than 200 vehicles per month), it provided favorable conditions for the sales of new energy heavy-duty trucks to soar year-on-year at the beginning of this year. However, there is no doubt that the new energy heavy-duty truck market has entered the fast lane, which is inseparable from the empowerment of support policies at the national and local levels. Zhong Weiping, secretary general of the Commercial Vehicle Professional Committee of the China Automobile Dealers Association, said that driven by the "double carbon" goal, Tangshan and other energy-oriented industrial cities have increased the promotion and application of new energy heavy trucks year by year, and in the fields of high-energy transportation such as steel and coal, the use of environmentally friendly, zero-emission new energy heavy trucks has become an inevitable trend, which will promote a significant increase in sales in the market.
Zhong Weiping further pointed out that in 2022, the policy Dongfeng will continue to stimulate the market demand for new energy heavy trucks, for example, 2022 is a key year for all localities to practice the "double carbon" goal, and it is also the last year for the implementation of the new energy vehicle subsidy policy, which can promote the sales of new energy heavy trucks to a certain extent.
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Pure electric heavy trucks are in charge of hydrogen fuel heavy trucks
With the increasingly stringent environmental protection policies and the acceleration of the commercial vehicle industry to green and low-carbon development, new energy heavy trucks have ushered in an excellent opportunity for development. In the face of the huge changes in the industry, zero enterprises continue to seek technological breakthroughs, and the application of power technologies such as pure electricity, hybrid, natural gas, hydrogen energy and methanol has accelerated. At present, the domestic new energy heavy truck has formed a technical layout with pure electricity, hybrid and fuel cells as the "three verticals".
Among them, as the most mature technical route, pure electric heavy trucks are the mainstay of the current sales growth of new energy heavy trucks. Among the new energy heavy trucks sold in January this year, 2263 pure electric heavy trucks, accounting for more than 99%, are in an absolute leading position. "From the perspective of subdivision products, the gradual maturity of the power exchange model and the large-scale promotion and application of related models are the main driving forces driving the surge in new energy heavy trucks." Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the National Passenger Car Market Information Joint Association, said in an interview with reporters that the power exchange model, as a technical route to quickly improve charging speed and user experience, has been supported by policies and favored by enterprises in recent years, and the business model has continued to mature, and has gradually landed in various scenarios such as manufacturing plants, industrial parks, terminals, and mines. In November 2021, the official implementation of the national standard GB/T40032-2021 "Electric Vehicle Replacement Safety Requirements" solved the urgent problem that there is no standard to rely on for the power exchange mode, which is conducive to the further promotion and application of power exchange heavy trucks. It is foreseeable that with the combination of policies and market demand, heavy trucks will usher in explosive growth in 2022.
Compared with the replacement of heavy trucks, in January this year, only 20 domestic fuel cells and hybrid heavy trucks were sold, accounting for 0.7% and 0.18% respectively. Because hybrid heavy trucks have not been able to get rid of their complete dependence on fuel, the application in the new energy heavy truck market has always been tepid. Although the performance of hydrogen fuel cell heavy trucks in January is not eye-catching, but its attention and industrial heat are heating up, with the landing of the national hydrogen energy demonstration city cluster, as well as the background of local governments to give policy inclination, it is expected that the development potential of hydrogen fuel cell heavy trucks in 2022 is huge. In addition, it should not be ignored that the just-concluded Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics has achieved the world's largest demonstration operation of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles so far, which has boosted the large-scale application of hydrogen fuel cells in the field of heavy trucks.
In addition, it is not difficult to find from the terminal license plate data that the trend of transformation of the new energy heavy truck market from sanitation special vehicles to new energy tractors and dump trucks is particularly obvious. In the future, with the gradual application of new energy heavy trucks in short-distance transportation scenarios such as ports, steel mills, and urban slag, the sales volume of new energy tractors will increase significantly, accounting for more than 50%, and the increase in new energy dump trucks will also exceed that of special vehicles.
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The market ushered in a new turning point
In 2022, it has become the consensus of the industry that the new energy heavy-duty truck market will achieve rapid development. However, some insiders pointed out that there is still a "virtual fire" in the industry, and the market has reached an important node in the transformation from simple subsidies to commercialization.
"The current surge in sales of new energy heavy trucks is the result of the policy's 'rush encouragement and extreme encouragement'. Objectively speaking, new energy heavy trucks are currently mainly used in short-distance transportation and special scenarios, and there is still a long way to go before the 'full blossom' in the market. In the view of Cao Guangping, an independent researcher of new energy and intelligent networked vehicles, to promote the development of new energy heavy trucks, it is far from enough to rely on policy support, and it is also necessary to align the technical route with the real market demand.
Zhong Weiping believes that in 2021, a large number of new energy heavy truck orders cannot complete terminal delivery, reflecting the problem of insufficient production capacity of car companies. In addition, the limited supply of chips and batteries, as well as factors such as power rationing, will also restrict the promotion and application of the new energy heavy truck market to a certain extent. This year, mainstream heavy-duty truck companies want to complete the sales target of new energy heavy-duty trucks, the key is to look at the supply capacity of the industrial chain. In addition, new energy heavy trucks, especially power replacement heavy trucks, involve the construction of supporting infrastructure such as charging stations and power stations, which require greater capital investment, and for users, the purchase cost of vehicles is relatively high, so they also face certain difficulties in financial solutions.
Text: Li Yanan Editor: Sun Weichuan Layout: Li Peiyang