Text / Sansheng
Producer / Node Finance
If you want to choose a big bull stock or big demon stock in the A-share auto sector, many people may think of Xiaokang shares (601127. SH）。 The automaker, once known for producing Dongfeng Xiaokang, once became the brightest star in 2021 after stepping on the new energy vehicle outlet, especially after stepping on Huawei.
However, since December last year, Xiaokang shares have ushered in a wave of plunges of more than 40%, and the performance has been declining all the way, which has surprised many investors. As of the close of trading on February 25, the stock price of Xiaokang shares was 45.55 yuan per share, with a total market value of 61.94 billion yuan, still at the bottom of the range.
Investors are more concerned that xiaokang shares in 2021 in cooperation with Huawei to launch the first model Cyrus SF5 sales is not good, and when the car was first released, it had pulled the company's stock price from 22 yuan to nearly 80 yuan.
At present, the "Q&I M5" that Xiaokang shares and Huawei have cooperated again is about to be listed, but it is difficult to determine how sales will be sold. The 2021 performance forecast shows that the net profit of Xiaokang shares is expected to lose 1.55-1.95 billion yuan. Under this situation, how should the road of car building in the future of Xiaokang shares continue? Can the performance of consecutive years of losses support the current market value of 60 billion?
This also starts from before Huawei looks at Xiaokang shares.
/ 01 /
Why was Xiaokang selected by Huawei?
If you look back at the rise of Xiaokang shares in one sentence, it should be "good shade under the big tree".
Before holding hands with Huawei, the "big tree" of Xiaokang shares was Dongfeng Motor. In 2003, dongfeng Xiaokang Co., Ltd., which joined hands with Dongfeng Motor, was established. In 2005, Dongfeng Xiaokang rolled off the production line, and the production and sales exceeded 100,000 vehicles within two years.
At that time, Wang Baoqiang, who became popular with "Xu Sanduo", became the spokesperson of Dongfeng Xiaokang, and the advertising slogan of "opening the East Wind, Running Xiaokang" spread throughout the north and south of the river. It was also during this period that Dongfeng Xiaokang, together with Wuling Hongguang and Chang'an Star, was called the three giants of China's micro-car and the three major pulling goods gods.
Such a debut experience, on the one hand, has made the Xiaokang brand famous, and on the other hand, it has also allowed the Xiaokang brand to basically bid farewell to high-end cars. But overall, at that time, relying on the vehicle business driven by Dongfeng Xiaokang, Xiaokang's life was not bad.
In June 2016, when Xiaokang co., Ltd. landed on A shares, its total operating income reached 16.192 billion yuan, the revenue of the automobile business was 15.009 billion yuan, the net profit attributable to the mother was 514 million yuan, and the gross profit margin of sales was 19.34%. With such a performance, when Xiaokang shares were first listed, they pulled out 18 up and down boards in one go, which was a sensation.
Therefore, from the perspective of the bottom of car manufacturing, although Xiaokang co., Ltd. started with micro-cars and economic cars, after more than ten years of development, it is experienced in the vehicle business. Having such an industry foundation should also be one of the reasons why Huawei chose Xiaokang shares.
Of course, the attractiveness of Xiaokang shares to Huawei comes more importantly from the accumulation of technology in new energy vehicles, which is also one of the important parts of the capital market.
Since 2015, Xiaokang co., Ltd. has set up a new energy vehicle design institute and began to carry out research and development including control systems and new energy vehicle chassis. The following year, Xiaokang co., Ltd. established SF Motors Inc in Silicon Valley, USA, and at the same time acquired Chongqing Dongkang New Energy Automobile Co., Ltd., which was renamed Jinkang New Energy.
Before the listing, Xiaokang shares already had 24 pure electric special vehicles that could enjoy the treatment of "exemption from purchase tax" by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology. After the listing, Xiaokang co., Ltd. continued to increase investment in new energy, and it has two major production bases: Jinkang Digital Factory and SF Us Factory. Through a series of mergers and acquisitions, Xiaokang has more than 1,000 global technology patents and advanced manufacturing plants, and has also obtained dual qualifications for domestic production and sales.
It is not difficult to find that Xiaokang shares are indeed actively laying out new energy vehicles, which can also be proved by the continuous increase in research and development investment in recent years.
From 2018 to 2020, the R&D investment of Xiaokang Co., Ltd. was 483 million yuan, 651 million yuan and 837 million yuan respectively, accounting for 2.39%, 3.59% and 5.85% of the revenue respectively. Although its revenue is not as good as a year, R&D investment has grown against the trend.
Under the increase of R & D investment, Xiaokang co., Ltd. has made certain achievements in the development of automotive semiconductors and components such as Sandian technology, intelligent network connection, extended range system and IGBT.
In April 2019, Xiaokang released the Xilis SF5, which is equipped with the "Hump" intelligent range extender system from Xiaokang's own technology. In addition, at present, Xiaokang is one of the few car companies in China that has mastered the core technology of three electrics, and it is also an enterprise with a four-motor drive technology platform.
Of course, Huawei's choice of Xiaokang shares may not be all because of the above advantages, and there may be another reason behind it, that is, the development of Xiaokang shares in recent years has not been smooth, and the brand recognition is not high. For Huawei, choosing such a partner with a certain industry foundation and technology accumulation, while facing development bottlenecks, it is easier to have stronger dominance and more room for its own play.
For Xiaokang shares, being able to lean on the big tree of Huawei will certainly help its future development. However, Huawei can't solve all the problems, such as continuous losses and poor new car sales, which seem to be trickier.
/ 02 /
From the Cyrus SF5 to the Inquisitive M5
Sales will be a hard indicator
As we all know, new energy vehicles are a money-burning industry, and a number of new energy vehicle manufacturers such as "Wei Xiaoli" are still struggling for profits. The market is more patient with such new car-making forces, and it is less tolerant of Xiaokang shares, which are "players" who have transformed from traditional car companies.
According to the 2021 annual report preview released by Xiaokang at the end of January, the company's net profit attributable to the mother last year is expected to lose 1.55-1.95 billion yuan. This is the second consecutive year of loss for Xiaokang shares, and its net profit attributable to the mother in 2020 was a loss of 1.729 billion yuan.
In two years, Xiaokang shares lost a total of about 3.5 billion yuan, the vast majority of which was counted in the new energy vehicle business. Behind the loss is the anxiety of whether the new energy vehicles jointly launched by Xiaokang and Huawei can be recognized by the market.
For example, the Cyrus SF5, which was once pinned on high hopes and was also the first cooperation between Xiaokang and Huawei, handed over a dismal report card. According to the data of the Association of Automobile Associations, the brand sold a total of 8169 vehicles in the whole year, and it has not yet sold more than the ideal ONE with the same range extender technology in a month.
So why did Ciris sell so badly? From the brand point of view, Cilis from Xiaokang in 2016 in Silicon Valley acquisition of SF Motors, in the United States did not make a name, returned to China to become Xilis, brand power is insufficient, consumers do not pay; secondly, for Huawei, this is its first landing in the automotive field, all aspects are groping stage; finally, for Xiaokang shares, its previous main production of micro-cars or economic cars, lack of experience and technology in the production of smart cars.
On the whole, the Sf5 is more like a test of water between Xiaokang and Huawei, and then launched a new brand AITO Q&A M5.
On February 15, Xiaokang co., Ltd. released the news that the AITO M5 cooperated by its Cyris and Huawei will achieve mass delivery in March, and the stock price will rise in response.
It can be seen that the market still has expectations for this product, and the Xilis SF5 has become an outcast after less than a year on the market.
According to public information, Huawei is deeply involved in the whole process of AITO Q&A M5, from pre-planning and design to later marketing and sales, all led by Huawei. This makes Xiaokang's Xilis more like a "foundry".
When Huawei released the Q&Q M5, Yu Chengdong, CEO of Huawei's intelligent car solution BU, said that AITO Q&E's goal is to build the AITO brand into a global new energy brand TOP 3 within 5 years. If Yu Chengdong's vision becomes a reality, even if Xiaokang shares do not dominate it, they can get a piece of the pie.
Image source: Autohome
So, the key question is, what will happen to the market performance of the Q&A M5 in the end?
Judging from the attention ranking of the Autohome website, the attention of the current Q&I M5 is not high, ranking only 27th in the mid-range SUV. However, after the listing, Huawei has worked together through offline channels throughout the country, and it is not easy to make a conclusion about whether it can create a miracle in the future. Because Huawei has made great efforts in car sales, it also has the combat power to create miracles.
All this is still unknown, the market needs to give the final result, and for Xiaokang shares, whether it can keep the cloud open and see the moon, may be in this move. After all, after the initial hype of Huawei's car-making concept, the real sales performance is the hard indicator referenced by the capital market.
The next one or two years will be a critical period to test the market value of Xiaokang shares of 60 billion.
/ 03 /
10 times a year
Swing between ST and the sea of stars
In the eyes of many investors, Xiaokang shares can be regarded as big bull stocks or big demon stocks in recent years, because from October 2020 to June 2021, the stock price of Xiaokang shares has broken through the 100 billion mark from about 8 yuan, and the highest breath has rushed to 83.83 yuan / share, which has increased by less than 10 times in a year, and the total market value has broken through the 100 billion mark.
In the case of a large loss in performance, the stock price can still have such a performance, can only say that the market is too crazy.
However, bubbles always burst. With the adjustment of the new energy vehicle track, the poor sales of new cars and the continuous sluggish performance, the stock price of Xiaokang shares began to fall from a high level, and has now fallen by more than 40% compared with the previous high.
Even so, compared with the start of the market in October 2020, the current stock price of Xiaokang is still more than 5 times higher.
Therefore, if the performance of Xiaokang cannot be performed for a long time, it is still unknown whether Huawei's signboard can support the market value of 60 billion yuan.
In this regard, the attitude of the institution is somewhat differentiated. For example, in the past six months, there has not been a brokerage research report of Xiaokang shares, and the number of holding funds is not much. But on the other hand, Liu Gesong, a well-known fund manager and "Guangfa brother", seems to be very optimistic about the future prospects of Xiaokang shares.
Image source: Flush
According to the 2021 annual report fund heavy stock data, there are 8 funds with heavy positions, of which Liu Gesong manages the largest mixed position of GF Technology Pioneer, with a current market value of 1.278 billion yuan. Looking back at Liu Gesong's entry process, he began to buy from the 2021 mid-year report, followed up with a number of funds under GF in the same period, and has continued to increase positions since then.
It can be said that GF Fund is already a heavy position in Xiaokang shares. In the case of other institutions staying away, why Liu Gesong has so much confidence in Xiaokang shares, it is not known. However, to a certain extent, this reflects the market's contradictory attitude towards well-off shares.
In addition, Xiaokang shares also fell into the whirlpool of public opinion in January 2022, when there were internet rumors that the original securities research institute and a quantitative person of a public fund or suspected of manipulating securities and insider trading Huawei cooperative enterprises, the spearhead pointed directly at Xiaokang shares.
Xiaokang shares subsequently clarified and debunked rumors, but the controversy surrounding the capital market around it has not yet dissipated.
From the perspective of financial data, due to poor car sales, the pressure on the capital chain of Xiaokang shares is gradually emerging. According to the semi-annual report of 2021, its total interest-bearing liabilities are 5.136 billion yuan, accounting for 70.88% of its net assets.
In addition, in the past two years, Xiaokang shares have successively raised more than 6 billion yuan through the issuance of new shares by taking the investment in the new energy industry as the main source. In 2022, Xiaokang plans to raise no more than 7.13 billion yuan for the research and development and construction of new energy vehicles and supplementary working capital.
In the case of sluggish performance, in order to continue to go on, Xiaokang shares must ensure R&D investment through continuous financing. On the new energy vehicle track, burning money is still the norm, and the corresponding risks are self-evident. Therefore, at this stage, the attitude of the capital market to Xiaokang shares is understandable.
On the one hand is the performance of walking on the edge of ST, on the other hand, Huawei runs to the sea of stars, although Xiaokang shares have Huawei's big tree as its bottom, but how far it can go, how tall it grows, and ultimately rely on itself.
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