Observation chamber
Written by | Liu Jihao
When an industry is faced with a major choice, it is usually the arrival of a watershed.
In the past year, the unexpected acceleration of new energy has made Tesla ANDD earn a lot of money, and many car companies have not expected it, after all, even traditional giants such as Volkswagen have been planted, and sales have even hit a new low in the past decade.
Do you want to change tracks and start all over again? This has become the real idea that many traditional car companies are thinking about. At this point, people have seen the ambitious transformation plans of Volkswagen (including Audi) and Mercedes-Benz, which have clearly stopped developing a new generation of internal combustion engines and set a strict time node for themselves to stop selling fuel vehicles.
For example, Nissan recently officially announced that it will terminate resource investment in the field of internal combustion engines (except for the US market) and focus on the field of electric drives. Of course, there are also options not to follow the trend, BMW at the beginning of the year unexpectedly stated, a new generation of internal combustion engine research and development plans are already on the schedule, and BMW will do its best to meet the continued demand for fuel vehicles from consumers around the world.
To the left, or to the right, although there are still car companies hesitating, but now that there are people on both sides, the watershed of the automotive industry may be at hand.
BMW wants to continue to play with the internal combustion engine, why?
BMW's choice can almost be called "going against the current", because the growth momentum of new energy in the past two years has been in front of it, and in the past 2021, nearly 6.5 million new energy passenger cars were sold worldwide, an increase of 108% year-on-year.
It's just that here at BMW, the future of new energy may be very good, but the current sales may be more telling.
The data shows that the BMW Group (including MINI and Rolls-Royce) will deliver a total of 2.522 million new cars worldwide in 2021, an increase of 8.4% year-on-year, and for the first time, roll out Mercedes-Benz from the position of the world's leading luxury car. It is worth noting that among the 2.522 million new cars sold by BMW, there are 328,000 new energy vehicles, an increase of more than 70%.
Based on this, it seems that BMW should bet on the future. However, this kind of multiple choice question only made by primary school students is actually completely unnecessary in BMW's view, because the proportion of new energy is only 13%," and the absolute mainstream of the market is still fuel vehicles.
The implication is that BMW intends to walk on two legs, developing new energy sources while using new technologies to maximize the life of internal combustion engine products – the former is a long-term future, the latter is a real cash flow for the present and for more than a decade.
BMW's head of research and development, Frank Weber, said a few days ago that since many automotive markets around the world are unlikely to be ready for full electrification by 2030, BMW board members believe that the market still needs BMW models equipped with engines. It clearly states that in addition to continuing to improve the existing engine lineup to meet emissions regulations, BMW is planning a whole new generation of engines, including 6 and 8 cylinders in addition to conventional small and medium displacement, as well as gasoline and diesel.
This is undoubtedly a reassuring pill for people who love large-displacement fuel vehicles.
Since the Euro 7 emission regulations will be implemented in 2025, although the nitrogen oxide emission target has not decreased significantly, the carbon monoxide emission target is facing the ultimate challenge, with a minimum of only 20% of the current Euro 6 emission standard. Based on this, Euro 7 is even jokingly called "an emission regulation that no pure internal combustion engine can pass", because it not only requires a big move in technology, but also means a very exaggerated cost increase.
So how does BMW's new generation of internal combustion engines deal with euro 7? The key clue revealed in Weber's words - the new cylinder head will have a "surprise" (perhaps 3D printing combined with new material applications), combined with lightweight, higher pressure injection, more efficient rolling flow, and the synchronous advancement of timing systems to innovate the combustion, emission and filtration systems of the internal combustion engine.
But don't be too optimistic, because BMW has only mentioned 6 and 8 cylinders, and as for the V12 at the tip of the pyramid, there is no future. The latest news is that BMW plans to launch the last 12 limited edition M760i xDrive sedans in the US market in June this year, but that will be the last song of the BMW V12 family, because the Euro 7 is an emission regulation without border conditions, it must be up to full operating conditions, which is a natural barrier for the ultra-large displacement internal combustion engine - even BMW can't let it pass the Euro 7.
Therefore, the peak of the future of traditional fuel vehicles is the V8. BMW, which has a rich technical background, can continue to fight, but it is really difficult for the vast majority of traditional peers.
Japan's first official announcement of a comprehensive transformation
Is Nissan gambling?
For Nissan's official transformation of electric drive, the author is not very surprised, because the consumer group of its main products is ordinary families, unlike BMW and other luxury car users who have relatively high requirements for performance, early turn, and can still occupy a good position in the future new energy situation as soon as possible.
In Nissan's plan, in addition to the US market will continue to develop new gasoline engines, other markets (including major markets such as China, Japan and Europe) will be completely transformed into electric drives. The exception to the U.S. market is due to the need for pickup products sold locally by Nissan. In other regions, Nissan will build on its existing internal combustion engine products to meet national emission regulations, maximize its life cycle, and also make a profit for the development of electro-flooded products.
According to reports, Nissan's current annual research and development expenditure is about $4.3 billion, most of which is spent on the development of gasoline engines and models. In the future, these funds will be used for the development of electric vehicles and other technologies, and the personnel involved in the development and production of the internal combustion engine will gradually be relocated to electric vehicles, hybrids and other sectors.
In the author's opinion, as the first car company in the three Japanese giants to make a similar statement, Nissan's move is actually quite wise, for two reasons:
First, whether in Japan or overseas markets, Nissan cannot reach toyota's height in the field of traditional fuel vehicles, so it is more sensible to get rid of traditional fuel vehicles as soon as possible and take a first-mover advantage on new tracks.
Second, in the field of electric drives, Nissan can be called a pioneer. The pure electric model Leaf has been working hard for more than a decade, and has a fairly good accumulation in technology and word of mouth (if it were not for Tesla's explosion in the past two years, it would be the most powerful electric vehicle in the industry). The e-POWER, which is based on the pure electric technology of the Leaf, is a big killer of Nissan's Toyota THS and Honda i-MMD hybrids, although it debuted late, but it caught up with the right time for the development of the HEV market, and it was to pick peaches.
That is to say, Nissan's advantage originally lies in "electricity", and now it is determined to make a comprehensive transformation, which belongs to the strengths and avoid the weaknesses.
It is worth mentioning that although Nissan is no longer newly developing the traditional internal combustion engine, it said that it will continue to devote itself to the research and development of the internal combustion engine for hybrid models, that is, e-POWER - this technology has been applied to the thigh Xuanyi in China, and by 2025, the Chinese market will have 6 models equipped with e-POWER, including a number of main forces such as X-Jun.
In addition, Nissan's recent statement of comprehensive transformation is not a whim, but an early plan.
In November last year, Nissan Motor officially released the "2030 Vision", Nissan President and CEO Makoto Uchida said that pure electricity and e-POWER are the two pillars of Nissan's electric drive strategy, and Nissan will start from these two aspects to meet the needs of different markets and open up new business opportunities.
Nissan is said to have launched 23 electric-driven models by fiscal 2030, including 15 all-electric models, and plans to achieve 100% electric drive of new models in its core markets in the early 2030s. Not only that, in Nissan's plan, it will invest $1.2 billion in the research and development of all-solid-state batteries in fiscal year 2026, launch mass-produced electric models equipped with all-solid-state batteries by fiscal year 2028, and achieve 130GWh of battery installations by fiscal year 2030.
You know, in 2021, the world will sell 6.5 million electric passenger cars, and the installed capacity is only 296.8GWh, and Nissan's plan means that it will try to build a huge volume of nearly 2.9 million electric vehicles. Where is this a gamble so simple, it is completely a big dry fast rhythm.
『 Final Remarks 』
BMW is determined to be the last defender of traditional fuel vehicles, nissan has planned the future of the electric drive era for itself early, has the watershed of fuel vehicles arrived?
The answer is no. Because the automobile industry with a history of nearly 150 years, as the core driving force of the internal combustion engine, has not been squeezed out of the last horsepower and the last bit of emissions, although the difficulty of technological upgrading in the geometric progression increases, but it is based on the existing materials and technologies of the ceiling, the current thermal efficiency of the internal combustion engine is more than forty percent, who said that in the future some day can not be increased to 60% or even higher?
However, the global goal of carbon neutrality and increasingly stringent emission regulations are forcing car companies to make realistic choices that are most in line with their own strengths, whether Nissan or Volkswagen, Mercedes-Benz and Volvo, which have chosen the side earlier, are just complying with the rules of business and accelerating the layout of the future first. But no matter who it is, in fact, it has not given up the current fuel vehicle products, and it is maximizing its life through the addition of motors.
But one can pay tribute to BMW's persistence, because it has reserved the tinder for the industry, and the future is full of variables.
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