In the past few years, the new energy vehicle business can be described as a boom, and many new forces have doubled or even doubled their sales, and by the end of 2021, the market penetration rate of new energy passenger cars will reach 20.6%. The business prospects are so good that the companies want to run to build new energy vehicles, thinking that this thing is just lying down to make money; so that the owner of the tram company can ask triumphantly: "I don't understand at all, why are there still people buying fuel trucks?" ”
However, a series of storms that occurred at the beginning of the New Year have cast a layer of haze on the originally good situation of new energy vehicles.
The first is the premium price increase event, many new energy car owners found that the quotations of each insurance have become higher, and some people have directly risen from 8,000 yuan to 18,000 yuan, feeling unacceptable, which is equivalent to spitting out the remaining oil money to the insurance company. Insurance companies actually feel aggrieved, the original new energy vehicle risk rate, than the traditional fuel vehicle, 9.3% higher, and the depreciation rate and maintenance costs of new energy vehicles, is also much higher than the traditional fuel vehicles, casually crashing a battery or motor, is tens of thousands or even hundreds of thousands of maintenance costs. With the introduction of new additional insurance regulations by the state, the three-electricity system of new energy vehicles has been included in the insurance regulations, and insurance companies can no longer bear it, and they will lose money if they do not increase prices.
The premium storm has not yet passed, and the subsidy decline has followed. The state has long issued a notice that the subsidy standards for new energy vehicles from 2020 to 2022, respectively, have been reduced by 10%, 20%, and 30% on the basis of the previous year, converted into the actual amount, most of the electric vehicles priced at more than 200,000 yuan, the state subsidies have been reduced by 4,000 to 5,000 yuan, on the first day of 2022, the slope retreat measures have officially landed, and the car companies that are unwilling to bear this part of the price difference have chosen to pass on to consumers, so the price of new energy vehicles has also risen collectively.
Do you think that's all? No, no, no, there are still many troubles with new energy vehicles. Affected by the epidemic and maritime congestion, batteries that account for the majority of the cost of new energy vehicles, raw material prices soared, lithium, nickel, cobalt and other mineral elements basically a day a price, power battery cathode, electrolyte and other key materials, the price is also continuing to rise, so how much has the cost risen? Industry analysts estimate 10% to 20%, cost management as strong as Tesla, but also have to start passing, Model 3 and Model Y entry versions, up 10,000 yuan and 21,000 yuan respectively, another increase has exceeded the amount of subsidy decline, obviously affected by raw materials.
In addition, the shortage of chips generated by the epidemic will not be able to really recover until at least the second half of 2022, if the epidemic rebounds again, it is not good, this is another unfavorable factor; the first-tier cities led by Shenzhen seem to have the momentum of tightening the license plate, pure electric car owners will no longer be able to participate in the blue card lottery, the previous kind of buy a tram first top, such as the blue card shake to the road and then on the oil car can not go, can only choose one of the two; and a large number of domestic brands this year, strong launch of a higher level of hybrid models, At the same time, there is no endurance anxiety at the same time, and to a certain extent, it will also squeeze the living space of new energy vehicles.
This big pile of things added up, 2022, has become the saddest year since the birth of new energy vehicles, the situation has never been more difficult, as the old saying goes: "When the tide recedes, you know who is swimming naked." ”
Now it seems that the most likely to expose the naked or new forces of car manufacturing, after all, they are not involved in the manufacture of traditional fuel vehicles, the business is too single, the model is also very small, so the ability to resist risks is poor, especially those who have rushed to build cars in the past two years, the original product force is very general, and there is still time to make money in the car, cash flow is stretched, this next encounter is not good, it is estimated that it is enough to choke.
Car sales are not good, to the second, the problem is the stock price crash caused by the downturn in sales, many people may have heard that the market value of the new car-making forces is extremely high, even more than the traditional giants such as Toyota and BMW, which undoubtedly has a bubble. If the stock price collapses, then the major shareholders of the car companies can not cash out, and these car companies have a large amount of mortgaged equity to obtain funds, once the stock price falls below the critical point, they may face forced liquidation, which is a bloody storm.
In fact, at the beginning of this year, Cao Dewang, a glass king who has a deep understanding of the automotive industry, said bluntly: "Many people think that new energy vehicles are the outlet, including real estate, home appliances and various technology companies have all come to build cars, and now they have accumulated a certain bubble, and the final result may be both waste of money and overcapacity." ”
We say so much, not that we are not optimistic about the development of new energy vehicles, because of the dual pressure of environmental protection and energy security, it is the trend of the times for new energy vehicles to replace fuel vehicles. However, we must clearly understand that the product strength of new energy vehicles does not come entirely from the car itself, but relies more on policies and environments, subsidies given by the state, and the support of free green cards, consumers are willing to endure the shortcomings of new energy vehicles, and new energy vehicles have ushered in the rapid development of these years.
On the contrary, if the policy and the general environment change, it means that new energy vehicles can only rely entirely on their own strength to compete with fuel vehicles. How many people will spend more expensive prices to buy new energy vehicles because of the promotion of environmental protection concepts or the pursuit of accelerated pleasure, we do not know. It is certain that whether it is the competition between fuel vehicles and new energy, or the stranglehold between trams, it will become extremely bloody in 2022, and car companies have no way to control the price of raw materials, so they can only come up with stronger technology to attract people, who can't get out who is embarrassed.
But all this negative news has room for redemption. On the first day of the New Year's return, the new energy sector, which had plummeted all the way a few years ago, rose in collective stock prices for the simple reason that oil prices soared.
When you have no way to make a breakthrough yourself, you can only pray that the living environment of your opponent has also deteriorated, and the so-called "all rely on the opposite side to raise a hand" is this meaning.