Many years ago, China sent a number of scientists to visit ASML in the Netherlands, but asML engineers said bluntly: "Even if you send the design drawings to you, China will not be able to build a high-end lithography machine!" ”
To be honest, for the importance of lithography machine, I believe that without too much introduction, everyone can understand. As a kind of scientific research equipment with high complexity and technical content in the chip production process, the lithography machine was once called "the jewel in the industrial crown"!
However, this technology is monopolized on a global scale by a humble "small company", which is the Dutch ASML company. According to the data, ASML monopolizes nearly 90% of the global lithography machine market share, of which the EUV lithography machine is asML's exclusive product.
With the gradual emergence of the importance of chip technology, ASML is also gradually exposed to everyone's vision. For the technical monopoly of ASML, we can only look at it from a distance, but chip manufacturer TSMC is ASML's largest customer, which is mainly due to the help of ASML's early business development, TSMC can only obtain more than half of asML's EUV lithography machine supply every year.
However, even if it is a 100% monopoly of EUV lithography machines, ASML is not autonomous in EUV technology, and the most critical technology is still in the hands of technology companies such as the United States, mainly because the rise of ASML is originally based on these companies.
It is worth mentioning that even if ASML has unlimited scenery in the field of lithography machines today, his development path is not as simple as everyone thinks, and the investment required for complex scientific research equipment such as lithography machines is far from being independently borne by a company, and even ASML has almost withdrawn because it is unable to continue to invest in research and development.
In this case, ASML uses the method of interest binding to turn large customers into their own financiers. With the continuous investment of the financial owners, ASML was able to insist on research and development.
But it has to be said that even with so many large customers in the shares, ASML has struggled for 27 years before it began to officially become profitable.
In 2018, ASML's lithography machine business finally turned a profit, mainly thanks to the successful manufacture of EUV lithography machines in 2017. Today, ASML's lithography machine business is already at a level of steady profitability.
In 2020, ASML completed the shipment of a total of 31 lithography machines, and the net profit of the overall business reached 28 billion, which was still competed by TSMC and Samsung in the case of limited shipments of EUV lithography machines.
However, in the case of the continuous improvement of the corresponding wafer foundry process, ASML's EUV lithography machine also needs to be further upgraded.
Some time ago, ASML's co-partner IMAG has published the development map of the next generation of EUV lithography machines at a forum held in Japan. According to the introduction, the new generation of high-NA EUV lithography machine will be able to be used in the production of 1nm process chip, and the mass production time of the new generation of lithography machine can be determined.
According to the news given by Asma, the lithography machine is expected to be used in the production line of the wafer foundry in 2022, and the new generation of EUV lithography machine has improved in resolution.
Therefore, the number of exposures in the production process of chips will also be reduced, so it will greatly improve the production efficiency of chips, which will help the current chip manufacturing capacity to be full, but the 1nm process process, even the most technologically advanced TSMC has not completed research and development, so whether it can be successfully used in the production line of the factory can not be finalized.
However, after this, ASML also made it clear that after the production of a new generation of high-NA EUV lithography machines, ASML will suspend the development of higher resolution lithography machines, mainly because the limits of Moore's Law have not yet been determined, and then ASML will be committed to developing more environmentally friendly lithography machines, mainly for the improvement of existing lithography machine technology.
According to the current development of the chip process, the limit of the silicon-based chip is likely to be in the 1nm process, so ASML naturally has to consider the focus of further research and development, to know that the more advanced the process research and development costs, the higher the cost, not only ASML is facing a surge in research and development costs, even TSMC and other wafer foundries are also facing similar problems.
According to the latest data released by TSMC, the capital investment in 2021 is expected to be between $25 billion and $28 billion, and before there is no further trend in the process process, ASML research and development does not dare to act rashly. What do you think?
