I remember that on the first day of the Spring Festival last year, the title of the first manuscript I completed was "The Year of the Ox of China's New Energy Vehicles!" 》
Looking back at the past 2021, this title can be called "New Year's Eve Prophecy"——
The total retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached a new high of 2.989 million, an increase of 169.1% year-on-year, and the market penetration rate reached 14.8%. In other words, for every 100 new cars sold in China last year, 15 were new energy.
In terms of manufacturers, the top three in the sales list: BYD, SAIC-GM-Wuling, and Tesla china have a total retail volume of more than 300,000 units. At the end of last year, the monthly sales of new power manufacturers reached 10,000+, and the three small strengths of "Wei Xiaoli" began to strive for the goal of annual sales of 100,000.
From the perspective of models, the models that everyone can buy are also becoming more and more abundant. Range of more than 500 kilometers has basically become the standard of mainstream electric vehicles, and if you are still worried about the inconvenience of charging, there are various plug-in hybrid models represented by BYD DM-i to choose from.
In addition, Tesla Model Y, Extreme Kr 001 and other star models, lidar, 800V high-voltage fast charging and other advanced technologies, Xiaomi, Huawei and other new car players, contributed a wealth of hot topics for everyone. Even if you don't actually have a plan to buy a car, just be at ease to be a melon eater, you can be excited enough.
The Year of the Ox is well deserved, from industry to manufacturer, from model to technology, the performance in the past year has been "enough cattle."
Today, we have bid farewell to the Year of the Ox and ushered in the Year of the Tiger. In the new year, will China's new energy vehicles continue to be "tiger and tiger"?
Supply chain "very tiger"
Chinese is broad and profound. Compared with the clear meaning of "cow", the meaning of the word "tiger" is much more complicated.
In November last year, I and my colleagues, the Canadian car god, and the teacher of the super charging station Big Ear Tutu Guan, experienced more than 2,000 kilometers of magic (fa) fantasy (wei) from Beijing to Guangzhou, and he gave me the wonderful meaning of the word in the Northeast dialect.
On the Chinese Internet, people seem to be looking forward to a different "big cat" year for the year of the tiger.
Since the cat is mentioned, the most famous one today must be the Schrödinger cat in a state of quantum entanglement that cannot be actually observed.
Compared with 2021, when everyone was generally optimistic and firmly believed that it would be "bullish", in the following year of the tiger, the new energy vehicle market is not like Schrödinger's cat, there are many uncertainties.
The biggest uncertainty is still the shortage of chips and the turmoil in the supply chain.
The problem of "missing cores" has officially appeared in people's vision since the end of 2020. In the past year, we have felt the anxiety of the top management of car companies about the shortage of chips, seen the delay in the delivery of models caused by problems, reduced discounts, and even heard about the helpless policy of some manufacturers to "deliver the car first and then reload the radar chip".
When exactly will the chip shortage be alleviated? Optimists believe that in mid-2022, pessimists believe it will continue for another year or two. But what is certain is that in the Year of the Tiger, it will still be as elusive as Schrödinger's cat.
And this is just the most prominent problem in the overall supply chain turmoil. The rise in raw materials for power batteries and the shortage of other components continue to affect the healthy development of new energy vehicles and even the entire automotive industry.
Leaving aside the specific price increases, the two recent hot news are very telling:
The first was Toyota Motor Corporation's announcement at the end of last year that it would "start production using defective parts from suppliers." The background reason is precisely to alleviate the problem of rising costs caused by chip shortages and raw materials, and to achieve the predetermined production speed.
The second is Tesla's statement on the focus of the Year of the Tiger when announcing the 2021 Q4 and full-year financial reports: "We will not launch new models, focus on ensuring the stability of the supply chain, expand production capacity, and go all out to solve the delivery problem."
Market-oriented "fierce"
Even if there is a lot of uncertainty in the supply chain, it is certain that consumer demand for new energy vehicles is becoming more and more vigorous.
No, even during the festive Spring Festival holiday, the new power manufacturers did not forget to present the january sales data for the first time:
Xiaopeng 12,922 units, an increase of 115% year-on-year.
Ideal 12,268 units, up 128.1% year-on-year.
Nezha 11,009 units, an increase of 402% year-on-year.
NIO had 9,652 units, up 33.6% year-on-year.
Zero run 8,085 units, up 434% year-on-year.
Tesla's sales have to wait for the report of the Association of Passenger Vehicles, and the most eye-catching traditional manufacturers are still BYD.
In January, BYD's sales of new energy vehicles reached 92,926 units, an increase of 367.7% year-on-year. At the same time, of BYD's total 95,000 passenger car sales, new energy vehicles have accounted for more than 90%.
You know, the beginning of the year near the Spring Festival holiday has always been the off-season of the car market. Whether it is a new power manufacturer that has touched the threshold of 10,000 units per month, or BYD, which sells nearly 100,000 units per month, we have told us with actual data that consumers buying new energy vehicles is no longer driven by policy factors such as subsidies and licenses, but has put them on the same level as traditional fuel vehicles in the balance of decision-making.
From January's sales data, we may also be able to predict in advance that the first new car-making force manufacturer with an annual sales volume of 100,000 and the first Chinese independent brand with an annual sales volume of 1 million new energy vehicles will be born in 2022.
All this confirms the summary of China's new energy vehicle market that has been talked about since 2020 to today: from policy-oriented to market-oriented.
Under the general trend of the market expanding, we can break down three small questions to get a glimpse of the impact of "consumer demand" on the market in 2022:
The first is the A00 class pure electric car, will it be more and more, the more it sells, the better?
The A00-class car, represented by the Wuling Hongguang MINI EV, has been accompanied by controversy since its birth.
What is surprising is that sales are rising. In 2021, the total sales of SAIC-GM-Wuling GSEV (Global Small Pure Electric Vehicle Architecture) models alone will reach 450,000 units, and mini EV will occupy the top position in the sales list every month.
What caused controversy was the negative public opinion of "old man Le Ping Ti", "a car only earns a few thousand yuan, dedicated to points", "industrial garbage" and so on.
Putting aside the controversy and looking at the best-selling pure electric mini-car in China today, it is difficult not to recall the best-selling electric vehicle in the European market in previous years - the Renault ZOE.
Similarly, its appearance is not good, the endurance is not long, and at first glance it does not look competitive in the market, but the Renault ZOE is in Tesla and Volkswagen ID. On the eve of entering Europe, it won the sales championship for many years.
For this phenomenon, the mainstream view has always been explained by the "European preference for cars", but in fact, the most critical reason is still more simple and crude: the price is cheap.
Sufficiently low prices and car costs, enough mileage for urban commuting are the biggest reasons why European consumers buy Renault ZOE. And this reason, placed on the domestic Hongguang MINI EV best-selling, is also established.
Some time ago, in a program on Japan's NHK television station, this was confirmed by actually dismantling a Hongguang MINI EV. Japanese experts found that the electric trolley "uses cheap, less durable parts and is assembled in an easy-to-replace way, with the characteristics of being easy to damage and easy to repair."
This runs counter to the Japanese car companies' long-term pursuit of building cars that are not bad for 20 years or 30 years and are durable enough. But it perfectly caters to the needs of Chinese consumers to buy cars today: usually 5-10 years will change cars, and as the product continues to upgrade and iterate, users continue to pursue fresh use feelings.
Therefore, if you say that Hongguang MINI EV, Euler Black Cat, and Zero Run T03 are just "electric old man music" is inevitably "smaller", its greater significance may lie in the "disenchantment" they have achieved for the long-term attitude of the Chinese people towards cars.
It is no longer just a "face" that symbolizes wealth and social class, but more of an ordinary, practical tool for commuting in the city.
Rapid iteration and eye-catching shape also make these cars get rid of the bulk durable product attributes of the car, more like fast fashion consumer goods such as Uniqlo, ZARA, and Coca-Cola.
Therefore, if the A00-class car can still maintain rapid growth in 2022, and more and more similar products launched by various manufacturers, it is not a bad thing, and it can even be said that the Chinese automobile market is more mature and the car culture is richer.
The second issue worth paying attention to is whether the plug-in hybrid model can catch up in sales.
The same is the actual needs of consumers, what is the most important thing for people today when purchasing new energy vehicles?
Unfortunately, although the story of fresh technologies such as autonomous driving and smart cockpits has been told for so many years, when it comes to actually buying a car, the first question people ask sales when they go to the store is probably still "How long does this car last?"
From the perspective of pure electric vehicles, the battery energy density bottleneck cannot be quickly broken in a short period of time, 800V high-voltage fast charging cannot be popularized immediately, and the power exchange technology is also due to the cost of individual manufacturers in the actual layout.
As a result, plug-in hybrid models, which were once only regarded as "transition routes", may continue to improve their competitiveness in the short-term environment of energy replenishment disadvantages, and are expected to become a strong driving force for the further growth of the new energy market in 2022.
From the overall growth rate, in 2021, domestic pure electric vehicle sales increased by 168% year-on-year, while the growth rate of plug-in hybrid models also reached 171%.
From the perspective of specific manufacturers, still taking BYD as an example, in the past year, it is by relying on DM-i plug-in hybrid technology to achieve the gradual replacement of its traditional fuel vehicles.
In the past January, BYD DM hybrid models sold 46,540 units and electric vehicles 46,386 units. The situation of pure electricity and plug-and-mix "five-five-open" has been formed.
After BYD, the plug-in hybrid models of independent manufacturers such as the Great Wall Lemon DHT, Geely Thor Hybrid DHT, and Chery Kunpeng DHT are gathering momentum.
The plug-in hybrid technology introduced by these manufacturers today is very different from the technology that was originally launched in a hurry just to alleviate the pressure of double integration.
The biggest change is to change the path that was once fuel driven and electric drive to reduce fuel consumption to a technical idea based on electric drive and supplemented by fuel engines.
According to the advertising caliber of manufacturers, it is to achieve the experience of pure electric vehicles + the mileage of fuel vehicles, and the fuel consumption is low enough.
Of course, some people may also say that from a policy point of view, the state still encourages pure electric routes, and the preferential policies for plug-in and mixed models in some cities have a clear launch schedule.
But don't forget that consumers don't think about the technical path when buying a car, and pay more attention to the realistic use experience. Can these new plug-and-mix models of domestic manufacturers be favored by the market? The 2022 sales charts will give us the answer.
Since the policy is mentioned, it naturally leads to the last question, that is, in the context of preferential policy decline, whether new energy vehicles can continue the rapid growth of the year of the ox in the year of the tiger.
In terms of subsidy dimension, the national subsidy concession in 2022 will decline by 30%. At the same time, affected by factors such as rising raw materials and increased premiums, it is an undeniable fact that buying new energy vehicles this year will be a little more expensive than last year.
In this context, will users still "vote with their feet" and buy new energy vehicles?
Judging by sales in the first month of 2022, the answer should be ok. But for all manufacturers, we can't be blindly optimistic. Looking back at last year's various news, we can find that vehicle production, channel construction, after-sales service, small problems in each link will evolve into big problems that affect the entire pace of development.
The Year of the Tiger, which seems to have a bright future, is actually full of challenges.
The Year of the Tiger looks forward to: less routine, more sincerity
The traditional automobile market has long had the saying of "product size year", but in the past two years, it seems that every year is a "big year" for new energy vehicles.
Looking forward to the Year of the Tiger, there are actually many suspenseworthy things worth paying attention to: can the 2025 target of new energy vehicle penetration rate of 20% be achieved ahead of schedule? Tesla, which clearly will not launch a new car, only rely on the two "old cars" of Model 3/Model Y, how much will sales increase? Xiaomi, Baidu, Huawei and other technology companies, what kind of waves will be set off this year...
But compared with these grand topics, as an ordinary consumer, what we are more concerned about may still be what new models and new technologies we will see this year.
After all, recall the past 2021, Weilai ET7, Extreme Kr 001, Mustang Mach-E, Xiaopeng P5 and other new cars have earned people's attention.
Falling into the actual market, the new models that are actually delivered, when you think about it, seem negligible. What you see in the streets and alleys is still familiar faces such as Xiaopeng P7 and Ideal ONE.
Therefore, less marketing gimmicks, futures marketing, the real delivery of eye-catching new cars to the market, so that more people can appreciate the convenient experience of new energy vehicles, perhaps it should be the most practical New Year's wish of every consumer.
Fortunately, at the end of March, the WEILAI ET7, which has been brewing for a whole year, is about to actually start delivery. Let us also look forward to this as a starting point to see more cutting-edge, fresh and innovative new energy vehicle products in the Year of the Tiger.
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