Recently, 10 top experts of the automotive industry, including leaders of automobile-related industry associations and famous economists, expressed their important views on the development trend of the automotive industry in 2022, which were officially released at the 2021 Global Automotive Annual Ceremony held on January 15. These majors are generally optimistic about the development of China's auto market in 2022, especially the new energy vehicle market, and several experts predict that the penetration rate of the new energy vehicle market may reach about 25%.
Fu Bingfeng: The vitality of Chinese car companies has been significantly enhanced, and the market consumer demand has escalated
In 2021, in the face of the complex and severe situation such as the continuous evolution of the global epidemic and the tight supply of automotive chips, China's automotive industry has seen a steady increase in production and sales, with 26.082 million units and 26.275 million units respectively, an increase of 3.4% and 3.8% year-on-year, respectively. Ended three consecutive years of decline since 2018. Fu Bingfeng, executive vice president and secretary general of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers and chairman of the World Automobile Organization (OICA), believes that in 2022, under the promotion of electrification, networking and intelligent technology changes, the vitality of Chinese car companies will be significantly enhanced, and market consumer demand will show an upgrading trend.
As a pillar industry, the automobile industry has always shown strong development resilience, constantly seeking opportunities in round after round of change, seeking development and fearlessly moving forward. The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers is optimistic about the future of China's automobile industry, and it is expected that during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the automobile market will maintain steady growth, but at the same time, we must always be vigilant about the possible impact of changes in the external environment.
Li Daokui: China's auto market is rising steadily, and sales of exports and new energy vehicles will continue to break through
Looking back at China's steady macroeconomic recovery in 2021, Li Daokui, a well-known economist and dean of the Institute of Chinese Economic Thought and Practice (ACCEPT) at Tsinghua University, believes that there are two bright spots: first, imports and exports have maintained more than 20% growth, benefiting from the recovery of China's economic production capacity in the world; second, consumption as a whole has supported economic recovery, unfortunately, the service industry has recovered slowly in the second half of the year due to the repeated impact of the epidemic.
Li Daokui believes that a major highlight in 2021 is the automotive industry, breaking the downward trend of 3 consecutive years and achieving more than 3% production and sales. Among them, automobile exports reached 2 million vehicles, setting a new record; new energy sales also reached about 3.5 million vehicles, ranking first in the world and far ahead of other markets.
Li Daokui expects China's economic growth to be above 5% in 2022. In this context, China's auto market in 2022 is expected to maintain a steady rise similar to that in 2021, and exports and new energy vehicle sales will continue to break through.
Zhang Yongwei: China's new energy vehicle sales are expected to exceed 5 million in 2022
Zhang Yongwei, vice chairman and secretary general of the China Electric Vehicle 100 Association, has in-depth research on the development of new energy vehicles in mainland China. Zhang Yongwei believes that in 2022, the development of New Energy Vehicles in China will enter a new stage of market-oriented development, and there are three aspects that need attention:
First, the development of New Energy Vehicles in China will still be in a leading position in the world, and China's new energy vehicle sales are expected to exceed 5 million units in 2022;
Second, new energy vehicles will enter a stage of full-stack development, from high-end products to economic products, new energy vehicles will attack the whole line, which will make the market present a richer pattern of electrification development;
Third, new energy vehicles will show the characteristics of high-speed iteration, models will become more and more diversified, and electrification technology, intelligent technology, and user experience technology will also be rapidly iterated.
Xu Changming: China's passenger car market will continue to develop steadily and is higher than the level in 2021
Xu Changming, deputy director of the State Information Center, predicts that China's passenger car market will still achieve steady development in 2022, and wholesale data and terminal consumption data will be higher than last year's level. The main reasons are: First, China's economy will maintain steady development; in addition, in the context of last year's chip shortage, the reduced inventory may need to be replenished, coupled with terminal consumption, because of the shortage of chips, some models will also achieve complementary growth.
Shen Jinjun: Channel exploration represented by direct operation and agency is in the ascendant
Shen Jinjun, president of the China Automobile Dealers Association, has long been concerned about the development of dealer channels, and he said that at the annual meeting organized by the China Automobile Dealers Association, more than 2,000 industry enterprise guests attending the meeting predicted the trend of the auto market in 2022, of which more than 50% of the delegates believed that the auto market would grow within 5% in 2022, and within 46% of the representatives believed that there would be more than 5% growth. At the same time, 55% of the representatives believe that in 2022, the market penetration rate of new energy vehicles will reach about 25%, and 27% of the representatives believe that the penetration rate will reach more than 25%.
It should be said that the automobile circulation industry is full of confidence in the development of the automobile market in the new year. But at the same time, it should also be noted that the supply and demand relationship in the current market has reversed, the sales model of traditional cars is undergoing unprecedented changes, and the channel exploration represented by sales models such as direct operation and agency is in the ascendant. In the new year, the China Automobile Dealers Association is willing to work with all parties in the industry to establish a new modern automobile circulation system characterized by efficient and smooth unimpeded, diversified channels, and diversified formats and models.
Zhou Hua: The concept of automotive safety needs to be upgraded
In 2021, the core competitiveness of Chinese brands will be significantly enhanced, and brands of all nationalities are deeply cultivating technological innovation, relying on independent technology, and leading the brand upwards. Zhou Hua, deputy general manager of China Automotive Technology and Research Center Co., Ltd., predicts that in the future, relying on the first-mover advantage and continuous independent technological innovation, it is expected to achieve new breakthroughs in the domestic market and foreign markets. In the wave of technological innovation and industrial change, the concept of automobile safety is also upgrading, and we need to establish a complete security system in the face of a series of problems such as information security, data security, network security, functional safety, and OTA upgrades that continue to emerge to escort the automobile industry.
Zhao Yang: Electric intelligent vehicles need to be more international than traditional fuel vehicles
Zhao Yang, vice president of the Automotive Industry Branch of the China Council for the Promotion of International Trade, predicted that in 2022, the internationalization of Chinese cars will become more prominent, especially in the era of electric intelligence, electric intelligent cars need to be internationalized more than traditional fuel vehicles, the main reasons include:
First, electric intelligence is a concentrated outbreak of the automotive technology revolution, involving many technological innovations, including many original innovations and underlying technologies, and even inseparable from the support of basic technology research, which requires the wisdom of the world to work together;
Second, the industrial chain of electric intelligence is more cross-border and complex, the new business model is more open, and only full globalization can ensure the safety and stability of the industrial chain;
Third, electric intelligence is in urgent need of new regulations, new standards of support, in this regard, all countries have the same needs, the establishment of a global unified, mutually compatible regulations and standards system, the global automotive industry will be a great benefit.
Zhu Mingrong: New cars call for new talents
In 2021, automotive industry talents will collectively exert efforts to actively respond to the new situation and new problems of automotive talents in the new era of automotive through management innovation, organizational change and digital transformation. Looking forward to the future, Zhu Mingrong, chairman of the Automotive Talent Professional Committee of the Chinese Talents Research Association, believes that new cars call for new talents, and in the future, more and more cross-border talents will join the automotive talent team, and interdisciplinary, complex, innovative, strategic and other characteristics will become the salient characteristics of new automotive talents.
In addition, the flow of talents will also be further intensified, the war to grab people will continue, in addition, the trend of skilled talents will become more and more intense in the future, which will also force enterprises to accelerate the upgrading to intelligent manufacturing. Facing the new automobile era, the reform of automotive talent training will be further deepened, and the adjustment of talent institutions, digital transformation and new talent training are still the focus and difficulty in the next work, of which talent training is the top priority.
Cui Dongshu: The overall retail sales of the passenger car market will grow by more than 5%.
Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the National Passenger Vehicle Market Information Joint Association, made a long-term prediction for the passenger car market: in 2022, the entire passenger car market will still usher in a period of good development opportunities for structural transformation, and new energy vehicles will continue to show a good development trend, especially under the encouragement of national policies, the subsidies for new energy vehicles will continue throughout the year, subsidies will promote the development of new energy vehicles, but more importantly, consumer recognition of new energy vehicles is constantly improving, A00-class vehicles, The B-class still has huge market development prospects. The Association expects that in 2022, the overall retail sales of the passenger car market will grow by more than 5%, the wholesale volume will increase by about 10%, and the overall automobile market will maintain a growth rate of 5% due to the sluggish commercial vehicle market.
Zheng Yun: The penetration rate of new energy vehicles may reach 25%
Zheng Yun, Global Senior Partner at Roland Berger and Vice President of Greater China, is an expert in the field of strategy consulting in the automotive industry with a long-term focus on China's automotive and mobility. He believes that the Chinese auto market in 2022 will have several key points worth paying attention to:
First, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles is likely to reach 25%;
Second, independent brands and new power brands can have better performance under the new concept of new energy vehicles superimposed intelligent vehicles, and the product strength and sales model of joint venture brand new energy vehicles will bring a certain impact to the Chinese market;
Third, Chinese parts companies will have better breakthroughs in scenario-based autonomous driving technology.