Text | Hua Shang Tao Li Wu Su
In the winter, the "mileage anxiety" of new energy vehicle owners is becoming more and more intense, not to mention the remote drive before and after the Spring Festival, that is, the usual charging demand is also quite tight.
How severe is it? According to the media, in order to charge the battery, some new energy car owners "get up at four o'clock in the morning to grab the charging pile."
The charging demand of new energy vehicle owners not only promotes the vigorous development of the charging business, but also makes the power replacement business gain strong momentum, and the "future" is good.
According to CICC's calculations in the relevant research report, by 2025, the number of substations will be about 12,500 to 51,900, and in the long run, 550,000 passenger car replacement stations and 60,000 heavy-duty truck replacement power stations will be needed, corresponding to a total of 1.8 trillion yuan of substation equipment and grid-side equipment.
Strong demand, trillion-level market, even Sinopec is "red-eyed", entering the power exchange track, to "revolutionize their own lives". In April last year, Sinopec and new energy vehicle company NIO jointly built sinopec Chaoying substation officially put into operation, which is the first substation it has built.
According to media reports, the relevant person in charge of Weilai said that the Chaoying exchange power station adopts the second-generation replacement power station technology developed by Weilai, and the 13 battery reserves can provide power replacement services for 312 vehicles in a single day, and the single power exchange time is 4 minutes and 30 seconds.
For issues such as the length and cost of power exchange, Zhang Qinggang, vice president of the Shenzhen Institute of Advanced Technology of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, analyzed that compared with the charging time of charging piles for several hours, it takes up to 15 minutes to change power. The cost of power exchange is slightly higher than charging, but it has obvious advantages compared with fuel, about 55% cheaper. In the long run, the power exchange mode saves the owner the cost of replacing the battery, which is as high as tens of thousands of yuan.
Perhaps, it is to see the demand and market, at the site of the put into operation of the replacement power station, Zhang Yuzhuo, chairman of Sinopec, revealed that Sinopec plans to build 5,000 charging and replacing power stations by 2025.
The reason why this move is interpreted by the industry as Sinopec's "self-revolution" is because in the petrochemical track, Sinopec is a crazy "printing machine", and there is no need to worry about making money.
Judging from the data, Sinopec's ability to "print money" is even clearer at a glance.
In 2020, due to the impact of the epidemic, sharp fluctuations in commodity prices, falling oil prices and other factors, most of the global oil and gas giants were under pressure, with ExxonMobil's net loss of US$22.4 billion for the whole year, Shell's net loss attributable to shareholders of the company of US$21.68 billion, and BP loss of US$5.69 billion.
In the midst of a dismal situation, Sinopec achieved a turnover of 2.1 trillion yuan and other operating income in 2020, equivalent to 5.7 billion yuan in daily revenue, which not only dwarfed Western giants such as ExxonMobil, but also far surpassed Chinese giants such as PetroChina and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, and became the "king of revenue" without suspense.
Since the petrochemical track is so profitable, why does Sinopec break into the power exchange track?
To put it simply, it is to keep up with the "outlet" of new energy vehicles. According to data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in 2021 reached 3.545 million units and 3.521 million units, respectively, an increase of 1.6 times year-on-year, while the market share of new energy vehicles accelerated to 13.4%.
It is not difficult to see that the new energy vehicle market has changed from national policy promotion to market pull. This means that the development of new energy vehicles has become a spontaneous market trend, and from a long-term perspective, it will shake the "moat" established by Sinopec, which mainly relies on petrochemical tracks.
Because of this, Sinopec has accelerated the transformation from traditional oil sales to "oil, gas, hydrogen, electricity and non- integrated energy service providers", and new businesses such as substations and high-power DC fast charging have become the focus of its "firepower".
As the replacement power station was written into the "Work Report" as an important part of the new infrastructure last year, all walks of life have also increased investment, Weilai, BAIC, Geely, SAIC and many other car companies are competing on the road of power exchange research and development and site construction, and Huawei, which has crossed the intelligent electric vehicle track, has also injected 3 billion yuan to set up a digital energy technology co., LTD., while dabbling in the charging and replacing business.
The latest news is that CATL, which gave birth to Hong Kong's richest man, also held an online conference on January 18 to launch the power exchange service brand EVOGO and the overall solution of combined power exchange.
CATL said that the shared mass-produced battery "chocolate replacement block" created by CATL is said to be able to adapt to the models developed by 80% of the pure electric platforms that have been listed in the world and will be listed in the next three years; each standard station only needs three parking spaces, a single block can be replaced for about 1 minute, and 48 replacement blocks can be stored in the station.
The Ningde era has attracted wide attention because it has become a supplier with a market share of more than 50% in the battery field, and its expansion to the downstream power exchange, analysts feel that there may be a possibility of "unifying the rivers and lakes".
It is worth noting that the replacement power station has its own infrastructure attributes, high cost, low income, long return cycle, which has dragged down the Israeli power exchange company Better Place, and will also test the Chinese companies that have entered the track.
But then again, charging and replacing power are all promoted by the state to move forward, which will greatly alleviate the "mileage anxiety" of new energy vehicle owners. In other words, the one who really gets the benefits, or even the last laugh, may be the owner, right?
Resources:
1. Grab the charging pile at 4 a.m., these new energy owners are too difficult! CCTV Finance
2. "New energy vehicle companies and oil companies began to relay the power station will be a good recipe to solve the anxiety of new energy vehicle charging", China Youth Daily
3. "Sinopec enters the bureau to replace the power station, and 5,000 charging and replacement power stations will be built in the next five years", Interface News
4. "Ningde Times Cut into the Power Exchange Track, Can It Unify the Rivers and Lakes", Financial Magazine
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