Is the power-changing track windy or conceptual?

In the industrial chain of new energy vehicles, from the policy level, the power exchange model has been vigorously promoted. At present, the scale of the replacement power station is not too large, and the entire industry is also in its infancy, but it is full of opportunities.

Contributing Author of this journal Poetry and Starry Sky/Text

Recently, Li Bin, the founder of Weilai, said: I simply don't understand why there are still people buying oil trucks.

The phrase stirred up thousands of waves, setting off a new round of debate between traditional fuel vehicles and electric vehicles.

Although this sentence has an element of marketing, there is no doubt that electric vehicles have become unstoppable. According to the data of the Association, in November 2021, the retail penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached 20.8%. This is a landmark figure. This means that the entire industry is no longer driven by policies, but relies on consumers' independent choices to move forward quickly.

If ten years ago we were still discussing the necessity of new energy vehicles, especially electric vehicles, and five years ago we were still discussing the endurance of electric vehicles, we all know that electric vehicles have become the rolling wheels of history. Wang Chuanfu said that the penetration rate of new energy vehicles is expected to exceed 30% by the end of 2022. As a technical expert who studies batteries, perhaps the era of electric vehicles belongs to him.

However, for the vast majority of consumers, electric vehicles have two major unavoidable anxieties.

First, endurance anxiety, with the launch of models with a range of more than 1,000, 600-800 kilometers has become the standard of mid-range electric vehicles, and endurance anxiety basically no longer exists;

The second is charging anxiety, charging piles in large and medium-sized cities have been scattered, and there is basically no charging anxiety in urban areas, but running long distances is still not too reassuring for car owners, so that the National Day holiday has appeared to grab the news of charging piles.

Before the short-term technology is difficult to achieve a breakthrough, it can be foreseen that in the future of a certain period of time, charging time is still a bottleneck for electric vehicles. However, compared with refueling, the charging scene is not exactly the same.

In urban areas, the charging scene gradually shifts to the parking lot and residential parking lot in the commercial area, and no special charging station is required. The owner always has to stop, when he stops, he can charge it, and the kung fu of eating a meal is full, which is completely different from the gas station. Although the gas station is fast, it needs to go alone, and the charging only needs to be stopped when it is charged.

Compared with the "parallel" mode of charging and the "series" mode of refueling scene, there are no small advantages.

In addition to charging, there is a track where the prosperity is rising: power exchange.

The power exchange industry has sprung up

On April 23, 2020, the Ministry of Finance and other four ministries and commissions jointly issued a new policy on new energy subsidies, clearly pointing out that new energy vehicles with a starting price of more than 300,000 yuan will no longer enjoy subsidies, but the vehicles that support the power exchange mode are exceptions, so as to encourage the development of a new business model of "power exchange".

On November 1, 2021, gb/T 40032-2021 "Electric Vehicle Replacement Safety Requirements" national standard was officially implemented, which was approved and issued by the State Administration of Market Regulation (National Standards Commission) in April, which is the first basic universal national industry standard formulated in China's automobile manufacturing industry.

As of October 2021, China has completed a total of 1,086 substations, an increase of more than 100% year-on-year. Although the construction of the replacement power station has begun to see the scale, compared with the charging mode, the volume of the power exchange mode is relatively small, and the development space is large.

It has been reported that the Implementation Opinions on Further Improving the Service Guarantee Capacity of Charging and Replacing Infrastructure researched by the National Energy Administration and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will be officially issued in the near future. Under the impetus of the policy, the difficulties in the power exchange model have gradually broken through, and some institutions expect that the proportion of power replacement models will reach 30% in 2025, which will bring about a market size of 300 billion yuan.

Electricity subsidies were once called "Weilai exclusive", in fact, not only Weilai, Dongfeng, Aodong, BAIC, Changan, SAIC, Geely and other enterprises have cut into the power exchange track. Among them, Aodong New Energy, which is the most radical in planning, plans to complete the construction of 10,000 substations within 5 years.

Weilai, Aodongdu and Sinopec signed a cooperation agreement, according to Sinopec's news, Sinopec plans 5,000 replacement power stations in the future.

Considering that Sinopec's gas stations have a large number of national highway stations, rural stations and stations with a small urban area, 5,000 stations is probably the limit of Sinopec's ability to deploy substations.

In addition to the ordinary passenger is expected to partially adopt the power exchange route, the power exchange heavy truck has come to the front of the stage. On October 28, 2021, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology 's Notice on Initiating the Pilot Work of the Application of The Power Exchange Mode for New Energy Vehicles' Work on The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology included heavy power exchange trucks in the pilot for the first time. Tesla's concept car has not yet been listed, and a number of Chinese companies have launched domestic heavy trucks.

New energy vehicles must be parallel to multiple technical routes

The author believes that the rapid development of new energy vehicles is behind the strategic reasons, not simply for environmental protection.

The first is the need for autonomous and controllable energy. China's crude oil dependence on foreign countries is as high as 73%, and the amount of crude oil imports is second only to chips, with crude oil imports exceeding $260 billion in 2020, of which 60% of crude oil is refined into refined oil products and burned.

Ma Yongsheng, chairman of Sinopec Group Co., Ltd. and academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering, said: China should accelerate structural optimization and ensure energy supply based on domestic support. Guided by clean and low carbon, accelerate the development of non-fossil energy, build a diversified energy supply system for coal, oil, gas, nuclear, new energy and renewable energy, so that non-fossil energy will become the main body of consumption increase by 2025, and the energy system will achieve carbon peaking by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060。

The second is due to the need for core industrial lane change overtaking.

According to the National Bureau of Statistics, in 2020, the operating income of China's industrial enterprises above designated size reached 106.14 trillion yuan, an increase of 0.8% year-on-year, and the operating cost was 89.04 trillion yuan, an increase of 0.6% year-on-year; the total profit was 6.45 trillion yuan; the operating income profit margin was about 6.08%. Among them, the operating income of the automobile manufacturing industry reached 8.16 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.4% year-on-year, accounting for 7.68% of the total revenue of industrial enterprises, second only to the computer, communication and other electronic equipment manufacturing industry.

Automobile consumption accounts for more than one-tenth of the total retail sales of consumer goods in the whole society, accounting for more than 4% of GDP. Directly related industries account for more than 8% of GDP.

If you take into account the upstream and downstream of the automobile industry, the impact of steel, rubber, petrochemicals and other industries, the automobile and its related industries are estimated to account for more than 15% of GDP.

Therefore, the automobile industry is also known as the crown of industrial manufacturing, and the automobile industry is the most important indicator to measure whether a country's manufacturing industry is strong. China's automobile industry started relatively late, in the field of traditional fuel vehicles, to this day, in the engine, transmission and other core technologies, has not yet kept up with the international average.

Now there is an opportunity to change lanes and overtake: new energy vehicles.

From this perspective, China's new energy vehicle industry will not repeat the mistakes of the fuel vehicle era, putting eggs in the same basket, resulting in excessive dependence on oil. There must be multiple routes running parallel, charging, swapping, hydrogen energy, natural gas and even synthetic fuels will have a place.

Among them, from the policy level, the power exchange model has been strongly advocated. Through subsidies to support the country's unique product line, the future development, will have a unique competitiveness.

Opportunities and risks in the industrial chain

In addition to the famous Weilai, the above-mentioned Aodong New Energy is already the largest independent third-party power station replacement power plant construction enterprise. The investigation shows that the actual controller of the company is Cai Dongqing, Cai Dongqing started as an Audi toy, and there is a listed company under its name, called Aofei Entertainment.

New energy is a heavy asset industry, the cost of replacing batteries is high, and it is difficult to make a profit in the early stage. It is not difficult to imagine that when there is a special shortage of money, the major shareholders are likely to draw blood from listed companies.

Sure enough, according to the announcement, Cai Dongqing continued to reduce his shares in Aofei Entertainment, and also pledged a part of the equity to obtain funds through various channels.

In the keynote speech of "Sharing and Empowering Urban Mobility with The New Energy Pattern of Speed Huan", Aodong announced the "Red Aodong Strategic Plan" to build more than 100 city-level power exchange service networks, build more than 5,000 20-second speed power stations, and form a multi-brand model sharing power exchange platform serving more than 2 million vehicles.

The author has seen several BAIC BJEV taxi replacement power stations, although the appearance is not as high-end as the Weilai replacement power station, but it is fully automatic and unattended, and the power exchange speed even exceeds refueling.

At present, the scale of the replacement power station is not too large, and the entire industry is also in its infancy, but it is full of opportunities. From the perspective of the industrial chain, it is mainly divided into three major sectors.

One is equipment manufacturers. A-share power exchange related listed companies include GCL Energy, Hanchuan Intelligence, Bozhong Seiko, Shandong Weida and HKUST Intelligence. Among them, Shandong Weida is the supplier of Weilai, and the rest are mainly engaged in wind power, intelligent manufacturing, consumer electronics and other fields, and it is "part-time" to change power stations.

The second is battery dealers. The demand for power batteries in the power exchange industry is exactly the same as charging, and the benefits are still engaged in power battery enterprises, such as Ningde Times, Guoxuan Hi-Tech and so on.

The third is operators. Aodong New Energy, Weilai, Sinopec and some of the host manufacturers involved in the power exchange business all belong to the operators of the power exchange station.

Operators are divided into three categories, one is an independent third-party substation, such as Aodong New Energy; the other is the replacement power station of the host manufacturer, such as Weilai, BAIC, etc.; the third is a site partner such as Sinopec.

For investors, choosing the industry must choose the node with the most profit retention.

From the reasonable speculation of the new energy development process, in the entire substation industry, the power battery industry has entered the Red Sea stage, the competition is fierce, the gross profit margin will not be too high; some head equipment manufacturers will have a good gross profit margin; and the operator is an asset-heavy operation in the early stage, mainly relying on financing to burn money competition.

For example, Weilai began to launch a policy of group batteries, which was welcomed by many car owners. Vehicle-to-electricity separation is conducive to alleviating the anxiety of electric vehicle owners about battery attenuation, battery leasing can always maintain the battery in a relatively new state, but also reduce the cost of battery use: urban transportation with short-endurance batteries to save rent, long-distance travel with long-cruise batteries to increase mileage.

In particular, the introduction of national standards in the power exchange industry is conducive to standardizing the market and ultimately realizing cross-brand unified battery standards, so that it will become an indestructible new energy subdivision industry.

(Disclaimer: This article represents the personal views of the author only; the author declares that I do not hold the shares mentioned herein)