When it comes to power exchange, I believe that the first impression in everyone's mind is Weilai, as of now, there are a total of 1298 substations nationwide, while Weilai has 789 exclusively, which is unparalleled. At the same time, NIO plans to lay out more than 4,000 substations worldwide by the end of 2025.
On January 18, CATL released the EVOGO brand, officially announced its entry into the power exchange market, launched chocolate battery blocks, and released the design of the substation, the small station covers only 3 standard parking spaces, can accommodate 48 batteries, and supports all-weather automatic power exchange. As the world's largest battery supplier, the addition of NingWang and the participation of Weilai and a number of OEMs in the "small wind and drizzle" type of participation are of great significance to the power exchange track.
In April 2021, Sinopec signed cooperation agreements with Weilai and Aodong New Energy, and planned to reach 5,000 power stations by 2025; in May, Aodong New Energy said that it would complete the investment and construction target of 10,000 substations within 5 years; at the end of the year, after Geely entered the main sail, it was immediately officially announced that it would launch a "power exchange travel brand" and planned to build 5,000 substations in 2025. In addition, a number of equipment manufacturers, operators, manufacturers have also begun to enter the market, many years ago was abandoned by the power exchange model, in 2021 ushered in a significant recovery.
At the same time, the power exchange mode has a policy to escort, so it seems? Will swap mode be the new track?
Straight to the point, I think the power exchange model is a new track, and its potential is very large, some analysts expect that in 2025, there will be 22,000 networks for power stations, the operating market size is expected to reach 263.1 billion, and the replacement power station equipment market is expected to reach 69.3 billion.
It's just that it's really not easy to play some tricks on this new track.
Why, we might as well look at the initial development of the power exchange mode.
Battery swapping is nothing new, and in 2007 the Israeli company Better Place was founded to create the concept of electric vehicle swapping. The company believes that this model can strip the most expensive battery from the body, thereby reducing production costs and accelerating the promotion of electric vehicles. At the same time, after the car using the power exchange mode is abandoned, the battery can be quickly recycled, which not only reduces costs but also promotes environmental protection, which can be described as a win-win situation.
Such an unprecedented concept quickly attracted the attention of capital, and capital giants including General Electric, Hang Seng Bank, European Investment Bank, morgan Stanley and others invested $850 million in Better Place.
Better Place also tried to contact the main engine factory, but first, the replacement power station required heavy capital investment, and second, it was still the world of internal combustion engines at that time, so Better Place finally found only one company that was willing and able to cooperate with it - the Renault-Nissan Alliance. Why? Quite simply, because the world's best-selling pure electric vehicle, the Nissan LEAF, was from Renault-Nissan. Later, at the 2010 Paris International Motor Show, Renault released a production version of the Fluence Z.E. that supports power exchanges.
Better Place was expected to sell 100,000 Renault Fluence Z.E. units in Israel and Denmark by the end of 2015, but renault Fluence Z.E. eventually sold only a pitiful 1,400 units, which even made Carlos Ghosn, then president of Renault-Nissan, say in public: "The power exchange mode is a dead end." The Fluence Z.E will be renault's last electric car to adopt a power swap mode. ”
For the power exchange model, the "mere" 850 million US dollars is not enough to burn, it is reported that the cost of the Weilai generation replacement power station is about 4 million yuan / seat, and Better Place's 850 million US dollars investment in Israel and Denmark two markets spent most of it, overseas markets are more than four walls, Better Place loses money every year, it is difficult to support it officially declared bankruptcy in 2013.
Tesla also tried to build a replacement power station that year, in 2013 Tesla invited 200 car owners to participate in the power exchange test, but in the end only 4 or 5 car owners participated, because Tesla's power exchange service requires the owner to pay an additional service fee of 60-80 US dollars, and after the power change, Tesla's owner also needs to change back on the return trip, or give money to Tesla to mail over, if you want to keep the new battery, the owner also needs to make up the difference, which is simply expensive and time-consuming. In contrast, Tesla's supercharger is more cost-effective - it can be fully charged half of the power in 20 minutes, the focus is extremely low, and Tesla's original replacement mode has failed.
The initial development of the power exchange model can be described as bleak, in fact, the capital is not afraid of "burning money", afraid of not seeing the prospects, the prospect of the power exchange mode at that time is very unclear, compared to the advantages of fast charging technology to be more direct and more obvious, the market will naturally favor the latter.
What are the disadvantages of the power swap mode?
The important disadvantages of the power exchange mode are two points: high cost and inconsistent technical standards.
The high cost is not only the high cost of building a replacement power station and its land, but more importantly, the replacement power station needs to reserve a large number of batteries, a pure electric vehicle, the cost of the battery pack is close to 3 to 40%, you can imagine how expensive the battery is, and the battery technology is changing with each passing day, which means that the battery bought in previous years may be obsolete this year, and the purchase of new batteries will have to be re-invested in costs.
However, in my opinion, the biggest disadvantage of the power exchange mode is that the standard is not uniform, and this unified technical standard includes but is not limited to battery manufacturing technology, standardization of substation construction, vehicle access standards, State Grid construction and urban planning, and so on.
If the cost of the battery belongs to the "problem that money can solve is not called a problem", then the standard unification belongs to the kind of "nine-nine-eighty-one difficulty" level problem, and this is the most important factor hindering the development of the power exchange mode.
What are the advantages of swap mode?
In addition to the separation of vehicle electricity mentioned at the beginning of the article, which can reduce production costs and facilitate recycling, it is more important that the power exchange mode can greatly reduce the energy replenishment time of pure electric vehicles in theory, which is where consumers benefit the most, and can fundamentally solve the situation of pure electric vehicle endurance anxiety, and even solve the problem of charging difficulties in old residential areas.
The power exchange mode can also extend the life of the battery, thereby improving safety, because the battery pack has "special management" in the power exchange mode, the battery maintenance is more in place, and the safety is naturally improved. In addition, the power exchange mode also derived from the "battery rental" service, consumers can choose the battery pack on demand, daily commuting with a smaller battery, occasionally run long distance to replace the larger battery, small battery can effectively reduce the weight of the car, thereby reducing power consumption, consumers do not need to spend a lot of money at the beginning to buy out long-lasting pure electric vehicles, can save a lot of money.
In addition, the power exchange mode can also concentrate on large-scale centralized use of the trough power peak charging in the middle of the night, saving energy resources, reducing charging costs, and can also play a role in regulating the fluctuation of supply and demand in the power grid.
What are the advantages of the Ningde era in doing power exchange mode?
The identity of the Ningde era is a supplier, compared with the main engine factory, the Ningde era seems to be more pure. After all, between the main engine factories, there is more of a competitive relationship, and the car companies "have their own thoughts" and thus lead to their inability to cooperate with each other with confidence. Suppliers are different, because the supplier and the main engine factory is a cooperative relationship, different car companies to purchase the same supplier's products is a common thing, and the Ningde era as one of the world's leading power battery manufacturers, whether it is technology accumulation or channel relationship network, are in the industry-leading position, the basic disk is in front of it, Ningde era into the bureau to change the power is reasonable. The point is that this is conducive to the unification of the standard of the power exchange mode and promotes more OEMs to join the power exchange track.
Why are companies scrambling to enter the power exchange camp first?
At present, Weilai, GAC New Energy, SAIC Group, Geely Automobile, BAIC New Energy and other mainstream car companies have joined the power exchange camp, the policy is favorable is the main factor to attract enterprises to join the power exchange camp, in 2022 the subsidy for new energy vehicles has declined, but the power exchange model is exceptional, and the documents also emphasize the role and importance of the power exchange mode many times, which shows the importance of the top-level design to the power exchange mode.
This is for the goal of carbon neutrality, and the second is to open up new industries, after all, the prospect of the power exchange industry can reach the level of 100 billion, which is very powerful. In the past, the time was not ripe, consumers' recognition of pure electric vehicles was not enough, even if the establishment of replacement power stations, the frequency of use is also low, the profit is hopeless, the power exchange mode is of course difficult to promote, but now different from the past, consumers' recognition of pure electric vehicles is increasing day by day, and the penetration rate of new energy vehicles has exceeded 20%, which makes the power exchange mode have a living soil.
However, this article has repeatedly emphasized the power exchange mode, not to say that it should "replace" charging, charging and replacing power is not opposite, they can coexist, and exploring the road of power exchange is the inevitable development of diversification. Everyone is scrambling to enter the power exchange camp, both to enjoy the dividends of the policy and to grab the beach landing, everyone wants to unify the standards, but as I just said, the enterprises "have their own thoughts". At this time, it is necessary for the official to play a role in promoting and regulating, twisting enterprises into a rope, playing an active role together, and implementing the unification of power exchange standards.
The editor said: I am optimistic about the prospects of the power exchange model, although it is currently facing a lot of problems, but to develop can not be given up because of problems, because once China's power exchange model is successful, it will form industrial barriers, which will greatly enhance the discourse power of China's new energy industry. The failure of the previous power exchange mode can be said to be untimely, but the development of technology is dynamic, and now the environment of China's new energy vehicles has undergone earth-shaking changes, and the power exchange mode has the conditions for development. However, when it comes to the adaptability of the chassis development of the main engine factory and the climbing of the infrastructure part, the process will be relatively long.