Wang Shi's "prophecy" has been fulfilled! More than 41% of urban households, what will the future face?

New Talks on Real Estate

2024-05-22 09:25Published in Henan

Many people are convinced that house prices will continue to rise, mainly because they see the real estate sector as the anchor of the country's economy and the leader of economic growth. Ma Guangyuan, a well-known economist, once asserted that the status of real estate as a pillar industry in China will stand firm in a hundred years. However, it is worth noting that Ma Guangyuan's view of the real estate industry is not as certain as it used to be. Despite this, many experts and academics still have strong beliefs about the rise in house prices.

For example, Meng Xiaosu, a well-known housing reform expert, clearly pointed out that the current property market is showing an obvious situation of short supply, which is a common phenomenon in many cities. He further analyzed that the regulatory policy has suppressed the people's thirst for housing to a certain extent, and once the policy is relaxed, housing prices may rise again. At present, the country has launched the third round of property market rescue plan, which also makes more people believe that housing prices are about to usher in an opportunity to rebound. In this context, it is not difficult to see that the trend of housing prices has always tugged at the heartstrings of the general public.

Admittedly, the belief that many people insist on rising housing prices is not groundless, but based on the long-term performance of the mainland real estate market. Looking back on the past two decades, the rise in housing prices in mainland China has been like a rolling torrent, almost non-stop. Although house prices have rebounded in the past three years, overall housing prices remain high. In many cities across the country, the increase in housing prices is even more astonishing, and some cities have even risen more than ten times or even dozens of times. In many popular cities, housing prices are as high as tens of thousands of yuan per square meter, which is staggering. It can be seen that the soaring trend of housing prices can be described as unstoppable, and it is no wonder that many people have always held a firm belief in the bullish housing prices.

However, the impact of high housing prices cannot be ignored. It is like a big mountain, and many people are overwhelmed. In this society, there are still many people who find it difficult to own their own homes due to high housing prices, let alone realize their dreams of living and working in peace. The house, which was supposed to be a place for people to live, has now become a pain in the hearts of many people. It is not only a living space, but also a symbol of home, which is closely linked to people's love and marriage.

In the city, the house is directly related to the child's education, medical resources and other social benefits. Not having a house means that these basic living guarantees may not be met. What's more, in today's society, the house has become a symbol of wealth, and even speculated as an investment product. This deformed market phenomenon has caused housing prices to continue to rise, and people's pressure to buy houses has also increased.

Although today's housing prices are prohibitive for many, many people still choose to take the bold step of buying a home with the support and assistance of their families. According to statistics, the average age of mainland people buying a house is as low as 27 years old, which is also quite young in the world. In the author's opinion, one of the important reasons why Chinese people stepped into the army of home buyers so early is the social reality that houses and marriage are closely linked. In the minds of many young people, owning a house has become almost a necessity for marriage.

However, the reality is often harsh. At the age of 27, most people have just entered society, have limited savings, and their wages have not yet reached their peak. As a result, many young people have to spend all their savings when buying a home, and even need to use the strength of both families to make a down payment. After that, they will also be burdened with a heavy mortgage burden for two or three decades. After buying a house, the pressure of life is even more elevated, and various expenses such as decoration, marriage, and raising children come one after another, making young people feel pressure.

It is worth noting that high housing prices have also affected the fertility rate in mainland China to a certain extent. Many young people are deterred from having children because of the huge pressure to buy a home, which has led to a decline in the number of new children. This phenomenon has undoubtedly brought far-reaching impact to society and deserves our deep consideration and attention.

Is Wang Shi's "prophetic view" gradually coming true in the real estate industry? More than 40% of urban households will usher in what kind of changes will they usher in in the future?

Wang Shi, the founder of Vanke Group, has always been cautious about the concept of home buying for the younger generation. He once admitted that jumping into the buying tide too early will not only put heavy financial pressure on young people, but may also restrain them from chasing their dreams. He once suggested that the current market environment is not suitable for hasty home purchases, and that young people can wait a little and watch the market move. In his view, the rental market will become more mature and perfect in the future, and renting will become a wise choice for young people.

However, in the real estate market at that time, buying a house was still the first choice for most people, and the quality of rental life was often unsatisfactory. But time flies, and Wang Shi's prophecy seems to be quietly coming true. With the gradual standardization and improvement of the rental market, more and more young people have begun to accept and embrace the rental life. They generally agree that it is not wise to take on a heavy mortgage burden at a time when housing prices remain high. On the contrary, renting not only protects them from financial pressures, but also allows them to devote themselves to starting a business and pursuing their dreams.

Now, we can't help but wonder: with the gradual fulfillment of Wang Shi's prediction, what kind of changes will more than 41% of urban households face in the future? Do you continue to stick to the traditional concept of buying a house, or do you follow the trend of the times and embrace a new model of renting life? This will undoubtedly be the focus of our common attention.

Nowadays, in response to market challenges, the country has launched a number of strong rescue policies, many of which are aimed at people's livelihood - the housing problem. This means that the future of housing options will be more diverse, and buying a home is no longer the only way to address housing needs. For example, after the gradual implementation of the policy of equal rights for renting and selling, more and more people may prefer to choose to live in a rented house to avoid the heavy burden of buying a house.

Looking forward to the future of the property market, its development trend is obviously not conducive to speculative property speculators. With the rational return of people's housing needs, buying a house is no longer a single-plank bridge that everyone is chasing. This shift will undoubtedly weaken the attractiveness of property as an investment and reduce its market value. In addition, with the gradual advancement of the property tax policy, property speculators will face higher holding costs, and the house may no longer be a source of wealth, but may become a heavy burden.

So, who exactly is a speculator? In fact, they may be lurking around us, and many seemingly ordinary families may also be part of the real estate speculation team. According to central bank data, more than 41% of urban households own two or more properties, which means that a considerable number of households in the mainland are involved in property speculation. With the implementation of the property tax policy, these families will face higher tax pressure.

At present, housing prices are still falling, which indicates that the future development of the property market will pay more attention to the return of residential attributes. In this context, the space for property speculation will be further compressed. Therefore, we must be soberly aware that real estate investment is no longer a sure deal. With the gradual withdrawal of speculators, the house will gradually return to its essential attribute - living, and the house price will gradually become reasonable.

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