People often overestimate their own growth in a year, but underestimate the growth of 5 to 10 years, in the field of science and technology, in fact, it is the same, people tend to overestimate the short-term influence of a technology, but underestimate its huge impact in 5 to 10 years, these days after watching the summary of the sales of new energy vehicles in 2021, this feeling is particularly obvious.
Sales of new energy vehicles in 2021
From January to December last year, the wholesale volume of new energy passenger vehicles reached 3.312 million units, an increase of 181.0% year-on-year, and retail sales reached 2.989 million units, an increase of 169.1% year-on-year. Among them, the wholesale monthly sales of new energy passenger vehicles in December reached 505,000 units, an increase of 138.9% year-on-year and 17.8% month-on-month; retail sales reached 475,000 units, up 128.8% year-on-year and 25.4% month-on-month.
Although compared with the entire passenger car plate of 20 million, the volume occupied by new energy vehicles is not large enough, but the sales of fuel vehicles last year fell by 6% year-on-year, and new energy vehicles increased by 169% year-on-year.
According to this growth rate, the sales of new energy vehicles in 2022 are expected to exceed 6 million, and it should be known that by the end of 2021, the total ownership of new energy vehicles is less than 8 million, that is, the sales volume of next year is expected to approach the total sales of the past many years.
At this rate of development, in another 3 to 5 years, new energy vehicles can compete with fuel vehicles.
And this growth data, but also based on the current lithium battery technology to do speculation, if the power battery technology has a greater breakthrough, or the infrastructure of new energy vehicles is more perfect, and with the surrounding new energy vehicles to create more and more car buying atmosphere, the sales of new energy vehicles are expected to accelerate.
Of course, as the base increases, the growth rate may also come down, but there is no problem in maintaining a positive growth rate.
Looking at specific companies, Tesla last year's global sales of 930,000 vehicles, close to 1 million, BYD last year's new new energy vehicle sales are also close to 600,000, although it is still incomparable with the old fuel vehicle companies, such as Toyota sold more than 7 million vehicles in the first three quarters.
But in the same way, with the mutual sales of each other, the strength of the two sides will gradually become balanced, and even reversed, the new energy vehicle giant gradually has the ability to match the traditional fuel vehicle giant.
It can be said that there is not much time left for the fuel car giants.
There is not much time left for fuel vehicles
This is definitely not alarmist, although the fuel car giants will not sit still, but if they can not completely change themselves this year,
Accelerate the pace of catching up, then the further back, the less chance they will catch up.
The gap between fuel vehicles and new energy vehicle companies will be further widened, and the brand potential energy they have accumulated in the era of fuel vehicles will gradually be weakened.
Leo previously posted that Toyota is the next Nokia Tesla will be Toyota's grave digger, just like Apple is Nokia's grave digger, many fans and friends scoffed, thinking that cars and mobile phones are completely incomparable, saying that what cars are mechanical and electronic engineering, is the collection of consumer electronic parts of mobile phones can not be compared.
So later Leo sent another article, compared with the comparison of the difference between fuel vehicles and new energy vehicles, why tesla is the most conscientious car company? Mercedes-Benz BMW Audi is frantically cutting leeks? It is a pity that compared with new energy vehicles, the only advantage of fuel vehicles compared to new energy vehicles is that the current only advantage is that the energy replenishment time is relatively short, and the others are all hanging.
As for what the car is mechanical and electronic engineering, so how the fuel vehicle is, it is completely brainwashed by the joint venture car, and the most core components of the car are just a few: power source, chassis, body, automotive electronics, in fact, it is already a mature industry.
The most powerful thing about new energy vehicles is that it has dragged the car into the era of intelligence by changing the way the car drives the power, and compared with the traditional fuel vehicle, it has become a dimensionality reduction blow.
The end of the car is driverless
The end point of the car must be unmanned, of course, its specific form can be said to be a flying machine, but it must be unmanned.
Whether it is a new energy vehicle or a fuel vehicle, for the vast majority of people, its main function is to solve the problem of displacement, users do not care what power mode you use, they only care about whether they can be safer, more comfortable, more worry-free and save money to reach the destination, it is best not to worry about any driving problems, it is best to recruit themselves, and to go.
Where you want to go, you can send you to the destination safely, and when you are on the road, you can lie down, sit, fall asleep, and when you arrive at the destination, remind you "Master, please get up, it is the destination", and then you get out of the car, and it finds its own parking space.
This end point has already determined the fate of the fuel car, because the power source of the fuel car determines that it is not suitable for this thing at all, or it is much less efficient than the electric car.
Many friends may find this scenario too far away, but as the opening line goes: It's always easy to overestimate the short-term impact of a new technology and underestimate its impact over the next 5 to 10 years.
Since the automotive industry bought new energy vehicles, the speed of intelligence will be greatly accelerated.
Just like after the iPhone came out, the phone can suddenly have such a huge change.
What's the inspiration for investors?
With the summary of the sales of new energy vehicles in 2021 by the Association, what does Leo want to express?
That's the sentence at the beginning of the article: We must have enough reverence for new technologies, just as we have reverence for capital markets.
To have a clear enough understanding and confidence in the new general trend, the traditional automobile market does not need to look at it, and we must make every effort to bet on the field of new energy vehicles.
And even if the short-term speculation in the new year's automotive industry chain is a bit excessive, the expectation is a little full, and the valuation is a little high, but in the face of the huge alternative market space in the future, it is actually only a stage of overestimation, and the long-term ultra-high growth will digest the valuation.
What everyone should pay more attention to is whether the specific position can continue to remain competitive and continue to benefit from the general trend of new energy vehicles, if the answer is determined, then even if the price is higher now, the valuation is higher, what is the harm?
What you have to do is to wait patiently for it, and when you have money, you will increase your position.
Because, at this moment, you are the friend of time!