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The task of reducing carbon in road transport is arduous, especially the pressure on heavy trucks.
As the main production tool of logistics and transportation, heavy truck bicycles have a long operating mileage, a large number of operations, and a high total diesel consumption, which has become the main source of pollutants such as nitrogen oxides, carbon monoxide and particulate matter.
Under the "3060" carbon reduction target, the new energy of heavy trucks has to be issued like an arrow on the string. More and more heavy truck companies are aiming at new energy transformation. Some bet on electric trucks, while others focus on the layout of hydrogen energy heavy trucks.
So the question is, seize the market share of fuel trucks, electric heavy trucks and hydrogen energy heavy trucks who can take the lead in occupying the C position?
01
Electric heavy trucks, hydrogen energy heavy trucks "flaws see each other"
According to the observation of the main station network electrical card, the current electric trucks are basically restructured from the fuel truck chassis. The difference between electric trucks and fuel trucks is mainly in the powertrain module.
Compared with fuel trucks, electric trucks eliminate the engine, intake and exhaust system, and fuel supply system, and replace them with drive motors, power batteries, and electronic control systems. Light trucks will simply eliminate the gearbox, and heavy trucks will replace the AMT automatic transmission for electric vehicles.
Hydrogen energy heavy trucks have one more power generation system than electric heavy trucks, that is, hydrogen fuel cell systems. Its working principle is to transport the hydrogen in the hydrogen storage tank to the stack and chemically react with oxygen to produce electrical energy and then transmit it to the power battery, and then transmit the electrical energy to the driving motor to output power.
Only from the current market sales point of view, in the first 10 months of 2021, China's new energy heavy truck sales accounted for more than 90% of the electric heavy truck sales, in a dominant position. At present, the hydrogen energy heavy trucks on the market cannot be equal to the electric heavy trucks, but the two are also spring and autumn.
The main advantages and disadvantages of electric heavy trucks are as follows:
The main advantages and disadvantages of hydrogen energy heavy trucks are as follows:
It can be seen that both can achieve zero carbon emissions and play an important role in achieving carbon reduction targets in the transportation sector.
In terms of cruising range, the advantages of hydrogen energy heavy trucks are more obvious, suitable for long-distance transportation; hydrogenation is also faster than charging, and will not delay the use of users.
02
The special line operation is the mainstay, and the advantages of long-distance transportation of hydrogen energy heavy trucks cannot be well played
In this way, heavy trucks transported over long distances are more inclined to the hydrogen energy route. The electrification route is more suitable for special mines, coal, ports and other fixed transportation lines, shorter feeder lines and some closed scenarios.
However, judging from the actual situation of the electric heavy truck and hydrogen energy heavy truck that have been officially delivered at present, the transportation scenarios of the two are almost the same, mainly focusing on fixed transportation lines and closed scenes.
Take some large electric heavy-duty truck orders delivered or signed in 2021 as an example:
The scenes of electric heavy trucks delivered and contracted are mainly concentrated in the transportation of steel enterprises, special line transportation, etc., and there are also vehicles delivered in scenarios such as ports and mines, and the number is relatively small.
For example, recently, Sany Heavy Industry's 18 pure electric collection trucks have been put into operation in Mawan Port in Shenzhen, and 20 unmanned pure electric minecarts have also been put into operation in 3 open-pit mines in Qinghai and other places.
Similar to electric heavy trucks, hydrogen heavy trucks are currently delivered for operation or contracted vehicles are also mainly used for fixed lines.
In August 2021, Hebei Baoding 100 hydrogen energy heavy truck demonstration line was put into operation, the main function is to ensure the transportation of sand and gravel aggregate to Xiong'an New Area.
In July 2021, SAIC Motor and the Ordos Municipal People's Government officially signed the "Investment Agreement on the New Energy Vehicle Industry Chain Project", investing 2 billion yuan to build the world's first 10,000-vehicle hydrogen heavy-duty truck industrial base, and planning to deliver 500 hydrogen heavy-duty trucks this year.
This is mainly due to the lack of infrastructure construction such as hydrogen refueling stations. The huge investment, the lack of standard system for the approval of the construction of hydrogen refueling stations in China, and the non-uniformity of technical standards make the construction of hydrogen refueling stations not a day's work.
According to the observation of the main station network power card, the mode of oil-hydrogen joint construction station is being accepted. GGII data shows that among the hydrogen refueling stations built in China in 2019, the proportion of oil-hydrogen joint construction stations is 17.9%, and this proportion has reached 50% in 2020. In the future, it is not excluded that the oil-hydrogen joint construction station will become the mainstream model of hydrogen refueling station construction. Enterprises such as Sinopec have been laid out and have achieved operations.
However, the charging problem of electric heavy trucks is also gradually being solved by the power exchange mode, which has attracted the attention of enterprises and industries recently. In particular, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has officially launched the pilot work of the application of the new energy vehicle power exchange mode, and Yibin, Tangshan and Baotou will be used as heavy-duty truck characteristic cities for vehicle demonstration operation.
The replacement heavy truck adopts the vehicle-to-electricity separation mode to reduce the weight of the vehicle. At the same time, the power exchange speed is fast, and the battery operation company can monitor, maintain and manage the battery centrally, which is conducive to prolonging the life of the power battery and improving the safety of the battery.
03
With the fuel heavy truck to achieve parity, electric heavy truck, hydrogen energy heavy truck can do?
If you want to compete with fuel heavy trucks in the market, high cost is a problem that electric heavy trucks and hydrogen energy heavy trucks cannot avoid. And it is the most critical core issue.
According to the Ministry of Transport's "2019 Road Freight Transport Special Survey Communiqué", the freight volume of enterprises below designated size and self-employed households accounted for a total of 73%.
This shows that China's road freight industry is dominated by small-scale enterprises and retail households, and the cost of using hydrogen energy heavy trucks starting from millions is more than 2 times that of fuel heavy trucks, and only some government units can afford it.
At the same time, although the price of electric heavy trucks is not as high as that of hydrogen heavy trucks, the cost of pure electric trucks is also about 50% of that of fuel trucks.
More importantly, in recent years, the state's financial subsidies for the two have also declined year by year.
Image source: International Commission on Clean Traffic
The data shows that the financial subsidy for fuel cell trucks fell from 500,000 yuan in 2016 to 400,000 yuan in 2019, and the financial subsidy for pure electric trucks fell from 1800 yuan / kWh in 2016 to 252 yuan / kWh in 2021 (estimated).
The price and cost of electric heavy trucks and hydrogen energy heavy trucks are always "unbearable pain" at present. Only when electric heavy trucks and hydrogen heavy trucks achieve parity with fuel heavy trucks at various costs, can new energy heavy trucks truly usher in the outbreak period of commercialization.
So, when will electric heavy trucks and hydrogen heavy trucks achieve parity with fuel heavy trucks?
A report recently released by the International Clean Transportation Commission shows that the total cost parity of electric heavy trucks relative to diesel heavy trucks will be mainly achieved in the next decade. Among them, pure electric dump trucks will be more cost-effective than the same diesel car in 2024-2025, and are currently the most promising heavy-duty truck models that can be electrified.
In terms of fuel cell heavy-duty trucks, all heavy-duty truck models (trucks, dump trucks, semi-trailer tractors, etc.) will not be able to achieve cost parity before 2030, and the total cost of ownership of this technology is many times higher than that of diesel and pure electric vehicles.
Without policy intervention, fuel cell trucks and dump trucks could achieve total cost of ownership parity in the early 2030s, while total cost of ownership parity for semi-trailer tractors will be achieved long after 2030.
It can be seen that at the cost level, with the promotion of policies, the development of technology and the increasing number of operating vehicles, electric heavy trucks will take the lead in large-scale commercialization.
However, hydrogen energy heavy trucks are not without opportunities, but the time may be slightly later. But the potential is really great.
According to the China Automotive Technology and Research Center, the price of key components of fuel cell technology will fall faster than that of electric vehicle models. By 2030 and 2050, the cost of fuel cell stacks will be about 316 yuan / kWh and 148 yuan / kWh, respectively, which is 50% and 62% cheaper than battery powertrains.
epilogue:
Heavy-duty truck new energy is imperative. The operation routes of electric heavy trucks and hydrogen heavy trucks have their own emphases, and there is no need to evaluate which technology is more advanced.
However, in terms of the current actual operation situation and cost and infrastructure construction, the market share of electric heavy trucks is more than that of hydrogen energy heavy trucks, and the enthusiasm of enterprise layout is also higher, on the road to replace fuel heavy trucks, electric heavy trucks will take the lead in "taking the lead" and standing "C position".
However, the main station network power card observation believes that by the second half of 2025, the situation may be reversed, and hydrogen energy heavy trucks are expected to achieve a big outbreak of commercial superiority through collective upgrading.