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Driven by the national energy conservation and emission reduction and the "double carbon strategy", the sales volume of electric trucks has a high year-on-year growth rate. The data shows that since 2021, the sales of electric trucks have increased by more than 1 times year-on-year, becoming a shining point in the commercial vehicle industry. Among them, the growth of electric replacement trucks is indispensable.
Due to the short charging time, worry-free mileage in special scenarios, and the low investment cost of power station construction, the power exchange type electric truck has won the favor of the market.
Not long ago, after the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology 'Notice on Launching the Pilot Work of The Application of the New Energy Vehicle Power Exchange Model' was released, the "power exchange truck" was even more on the hot search. Industry insiders believe that the power exchange mode is the main way to achieve truck electrification in the future.
For now, replacement trucks can indeed accelerate the process of truck electrification, but it may not necessarily be a panacea. Because the development of electric trucks cannot be smooth, it may face many difficulties.
The most important of these is the construction of the substation. Because the replacement truck is inseparable from the construction and operation of the replacement power station, just as the development of fuel trucks is inseparable from the traditional gas station, the construction and operation of the replacement power station still faces many difficulties.
The main station network electric card observation briefly analyzes the difficulties that may be encountered in the early stage of the construction and operation of the electric truck replacement power station.
Power-changing electric trucks are mainly used in the logistics and transportation industry. Today's logistics and transportation mainly has the operation mode of fleet operation and retail operation of large logistics companies. The battery replacement trucks operated by the fleet of large logistics companies are mainly concentrated in the application scenarios where the lines are relatively fixed in ports, large steel mills, power plants, mines, etc., and the replacement power stations are generally self-built; while the replacement trucks operated by retail card friends need to rely on public power stations.
Whether it is a self-built replacement power station or a public replacement power station, the construction and operation of electric truck replacement power station are facing the following difficulties.
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Difficulty 1: At present, the construction and operation of electric truck replacement power stations lack industry standards and norms.
The lack of industry standards for substation replacement is a major problem encountered in the construction and operation of electric truck substations.
The competent national authorities should clarify who will take the lead in formulating and promulgating the construction and operation standards for electric truck replacement power stations that conform to the interests of all parties (especially the interests of users) as soon as possible, so as to regulate the construction and operation of electric truck replacement power stations in the mainland.
It is gratifying that the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers recently issued a public announcement letter on 15 group standards such as the "Technical Specifications for the Construction of Electric Medium and Heavy Truck Sharing and Replacement Power Stations and Electric Replacement Vehicles". Among them, the "Technical Specifications for the Construction and Replacement Vehicle of Electric Medium and Heavy Truck Sharing and Replacement Vehicles" will be formulated by FAW Jiefang.
The main station network electric card observation believes that with the efforts of the industry and leading enterprises, it will play a huge role in promoting the formulation of the construction and operation specifications for electric truck replacement power stations.
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Difficulty two: the layout of electric truck replacement power station outlets faces difficulties in site selection and the problem of operating profit and loss.
According to the survey, whether it is a self-built power station or a public power station, it is facing the practical problem of difficult location of the network layout.
Because there is a fixed operating route, the power exchange trucks of the fleet of large logistics companies are basically operated in the form of self-built power stations. However, the location of this self-built and substation is a more complicated problem.
According to the observation and survey of the main station network electrical card, there are relatively many heavy trucks for the centralized operation of the large-scale logistics company fleet, mainly concentrated in ports, mines and so on. And the sites in these areas are generally scarce, if the logistics company wants to build its own power station here, land approval is a big problem.
First, land resources are tight; second, the competent departments are not clear and it is difficult to examine and approve; third, there is no way to rely on them. These factors will bring greater difficulties to the site selection and construction of self-built replacement power stations.
Unlike self-built swap stations, the public swap stations used by retail-operated swap trucks are more complex in terms of site selection in terms of network layout.
First of all, the site selection should be considered to bring convenience to most of the card users' power exchange, and more importantly, it is to bring profits to the future operation of the replacement station.
If the public substation is laid out in a place with dense traffic flow, it may bring considerable benefits to the substation, and vice versa, it may lead to the loss of the substation and the operation cannot continue.
Industry experts have modeled the break-even point of heavy truck replacement power stations and measured the break-even point of their daily operations, and concluded that the break-even point of heavy truck replacement power stations corresponds to 23% utilization. Because the electric heavy truck public substation is usually a fixed scenario, and the frequency of vehicle power exchange is higher than that of passenger cars (generally electric heavy trucks change electricity twice a day, while electric passenger cars change electricity once), the profitability of heavy truck replacement power stations is generally slightly better than that of passenger cars.
In addition, experts modeled the heavy-duty truck replacement power station to discuss the change in the profitability of a single station under the change in utilization, and concluded that the number of daily service times of a single heavy-duty truck replacement power station is capped at 288 times, and when the utilization rate is about 23%, the replacement power station crosses the break-even point; when the heavy-duty truck replacement power station rises to 30% utilization rate, the corresponding annual profit can reach 420,000; when the utilization rate rises to 40%, the profitability of the heavy-duty truck replacement power station has jumped significantly, and the net profit reaches 970,000.
That is to say, if the public substation operator can use the advantage of resources to seize a better location to lay out the electric heavy-duty truck public substation, it can not only bring convenience to the card you to change the power, but also bring a steady stream of profits to the follow-up operation. However, the heavy investment attribute of heavy truck replacement power stations makes the probability of repeated investment in the same location greatly reduced.
According to the above data, the utilization rate of a single station is the key to the profitability of heavy trucks. The improvement of the utilization rate of the replacement power station, on the one hand, is the increase in the penetration rate of the overall power replacement model, and more importantly, it is necessary to lay out the replacement power station in the key location of the developed provinces to form the first-mover advantage of the replacement power station.
According to the data, as of October 2021, the total number of substations in the mainland is 1086. Among them, the heavy-duty truck replacement power station is mainly concentrated in Beijing, Guangdong, Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Fujian, Shandong, Shanghai and other economically developed coastal port cities.
That is to say, many advantageous sections in developed areas have been preemptively established by operators to replace power stations, and it is almost impossible to repeat the construction of public substations in this section in the later period.
Secondly, the construction of electric truck utility substations should also take into account the site and the environmental pollution of the surroundings.
For example, the accumulation and storage of large quantities of potentially polluting battery packs is generally not permitted in residential areas and around schools.
Third, the construction of electric truck public substations must also be approved by the State Grid and relevant competent departments, because there may be practical problems such as difficulties in increasing power capacity.
In summary, the location of the substation is very critical and highly correlated with the profitability in future operations. Site selection and construction involves many practical problems such as land resources, environmental pollution, and power capacity increase, which require the approval of the competent government departments, the approval of the environmental protection departments, and the approval of the State Grid.
Especially during the pilot period of the power exchange model, the relationship between all aspects has not yet been straightened out, and in the context of unclear responsibilities, unpeatable and unruly, it is indeed not an easy task to solve these problems.
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Difficulty three: facing the cost of a single replacement battery for customers.
Electric truck owners who choose a public substation need to consider the cost of replacing the battery at a time. At present, in passenger cars, the cost of replacing the electricity of NIO is calculated according to the formula of "power exchange degree * (electricity fee + service fee)".
At present, there is no unified standard for the service fee charged by each power station of the replacement truck, and the end customer will definitely calculate the comparison. If the charge is too high, retail card friends may not come to change the electricity next time; if the charge is too low, it may affect the profitability of the replacement station operator.
Therefore, it is not easy to calculate a more appropriate charging standard.
The choice of a large fleet of self-built power stations not only needs to consider the cost of substation replacement, but also has to consider the cost of electricity, reserve batteries, labor and so on.
In fact, there is no uniform standard answer to the question of the cost of a single battery replacement for customers. Because there are many ways to replace the battery, and the cost of replacing different battery models is certainly not the same, this kind of customer single replacement battery cost problem still depends on the substation operator to explore in practice.
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Difficulty four: the battery standard is not uniform is the biggest problem restricting the development of electric replacement trucks, and it is the most "headache" problem encountered by electric truck public replacement power stations.
At present, the specifications, brands and even materials of pure electric trucks produced by different manufacturers are different, whether it is a public replacement station or a self-built replacement power station, it is facing a problem, that is, there are differences in battery models. How to establish a unified standard in the industry, it is unlikely to be solved in a short period of time.
On the one hand, because the models of electric trucks are not uniform, such as electric heavy trucks themselves have various models such as tractors, dump trucks, mixer trucks, sanitation vehicles, etc.; on the other hand, the battery model brands between each model are not the same, such as Ningde era, Guoxuan Hi-Tech, BYD, etc., these models can not be used at present.
Therefore, the non-uniformity of battery standards is a "roadblock" that restricts the development of truck public replacement power stations. This problem can only rely on the state to formulate standards, and car companies can gradually integrate in the future, and cannot be "achieved overnight".
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Difficulty five: the division of safety responsibilities for changing electric trucks.
For electric truck utility substations, an important issue is how to ensure safety.
For example, some replacement trucks are equipped with hundreds of degrees of electricity, weighing about several tons, which is more dangerous during braking, vibration and collision. In the event of an accident, how is the liability divided? Substations, vehicle manufacturers, card friends, who is responsible?
This problem needs to be solved slowly by improving industry standards and national legislation, and it is impossible to solve it all at once.
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Difficulty six: the safety hazards caused by immature technology are large.
The plug-in device of the high-voltage wiring harness of the battery pack during the power exchange process should be frequently plugged and unplugged, and the quality and reliability requirements of the plug-in device are very high, and once the leakage will cause serious harm. For the replacement power station, there is a great risk of safety hazards.
At the same time, the battery pack is frequently loaded and unloaded and charged at high power, and the service life of the battery will be greatly attenuated. With the current level of technology and treatment methods, it is impossible to completely eliminate potential safety hazards.
To solve this problem, it is necessary to continuously improve the material and manufacturing process of the replacement battery pack plug device, thereby improving product quality.
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Difficulty seven: The profit model of the current replacement power station is still not very clear.
At present, a lot of social capital has poured into the construction of the replacement power station, but many investors may still be in a state of "half-understanding" of the model in which the replacement power station will be profitable after completion. Is it profitable by products, brands, or models? I'm afraid few people can say it clearly.
However, this issue cannot be circumvented and must be seriously considered. Perhaps only after a period of operation of the substation, in the actual battle of market competition to see which model is more popular with users, this is the most suitable for their own profit model.
In summary, at present, the replacement electric truck is an important direction for the electrification of commercial vehicles, but there are many difficulties in the actual construction and operation of the replacement power station. Fortunately, the power exchange mode of electric trucks is still in the trial and error stage, and the above difficulties can be seriously explored.
The main station network power card observation suggests that the local government, the relevant power grid and power exchange technology companies, and the substation operator can jointly establish a cooperation model, and form a benefit-sharing mechanism based on the customer. In the process of pilot application promotion, with the joint efforts of all parties, we will gradually find a solution to the pain points and balance points of the construction and operation of electric truck replacement power stations, so as to pave the way for the large-scale promotion of electric trucks in the later stage.